The Latin American Report # 654

Donald Trump continues shaping the region through a very active—or aggressive—policy, after reaching an agreement with the Dominican Republic to use strategic zones of the country for military purposes. Specifically, US forces will be able, for a limited time, to "refuel aircraft and transport equipment and technical personnel at restricted areas within the San Isidro Air Base and Las Américas International Airport," announced the Dominican president in the presence of the US Secretary of War. According to reports, the understanding is directed to combat drug trafficking with a deployment that would include C-130 Hercules cargo aircraft and KC-135 tanker aircraft.

Honduras

On the other hand, the head of the White House aimed his powerful megaphone towards Honduras, openly calling to vote for the conservative candidate Nasry Juan "Tito" Asfura Zablah. In Trump's narrative, the candidate Salvador Nasralla, formerly affiliated with the leftist ruling party, participates in the election as what in Venezuela would be called a candidate alacrán (scorpion candidate), that is: one who acts as opposition but to divide the vote of the "true" opposition candidate, in collusion with the ruling party.

Thus, in an operation quite similar to the recent one of support of Javier Milei in the past legislative elections in Argentina, the Republican leader stated that he would only feel comfortable with a potential conservative partner on the Juan Pablo II Boulevard: "Tito and I can work together to fight the Narcocommunists, and bring needed aid to the people of Honduras. I cannot work with Moncada and the Communists, and Nasralla is not a reliable partner for Freedom, and cannot be trusted. I hope the people of Honduras vote for Freedom and Democracy, and elect Tito Asfura, President!"

In the same trend, I have no doubt that the conservative José Antonio Kast will receive the same support in Chile when the critical moment arrives there. Trump wants to paint Latin America red in line with his political brand. By 2026, we will have other interesting electoral scenarios in Colombia, Peru, and Brazil.

Haiti

Starting in February, over 500,000 Haitians will lose their protection against deportation, following a new rationale introduced today by Kristi Noem. It is very likely that the executive action will be challenged in court. Noem states that "even if the [DHS] found that there existed conditions that were extraordinary and temporary that prevented Haitian nationals ... from returning in safety, termination of Temporary Protected Status of Haiti is still required because it is contrary to the national interest of the United States to permit Haitian nationals ... to remain temporarily in the United States."

As examples of why, on this issue too, the "America first" principle applies, the Secretary of Homeland Security alludes to the arrest of members of the criminal gang Viv Ansamn, and thus to the potential presence of more of its members among those protected by TPS. "[The] United States must prioritize its national interests," she argues. Furthermore, Noem also puts forward the argument that "[e]nding Temporary Protected Status for Haiti reflects a necessary and strategic vote of confidence in the new chapter Haiti is turning," referring to the recent approval of a UN Security Council resolution that transforms the so far failed Multinational Security Support into a Gang Suppression Force.

"The United States cannot call for bold change on the ground while signaling doubt from afar," she wrote in the notification. This Miami Herald article points out that while some areas are somehow free from the gang problem, they are still in a difficult situation marked by recovery from the impact caused by Hurricane Melissa, which, even without directly hitting the country, resulted in the highest number of deaths there compared to Jamaica and Cuba, the latter nation reporting none. To make matters worse, the Presidential Transitional Council is taking on water due to internal power struggles.

This is all for today’s report.