The Latin American Report # 643

Interesting electoral day in Latin America for political analysis. In Chile, the victory of communist candidate Jeannette Jara in the first round was confirmed, and, with a much better-than-expected performance, so was second place for the far-right candidate José Antonio Kast. Both advance to the run-off scheduled for December 14th, where a reconfiguration of voter allegiances is estimated, initially favorable to Kast. At 11:30 PM local time in Chile, the national Electoral Service reported having counted around 99% of the polling stations, with Jara amassing close to 27% of the votes, and Kast slightly below 24%, a difference of about 372,240 votes.

The problem for Jara heading into the runoff is that she is projected to have little room for growth, although ultimately the electorate has the final word beyond the polls. In truth, the endorsements Kast has already received from libertarian Johannes Kaiser and the representative of the traditional right Evelyn Matthei do not mean that their electoral bases will transfer automatically, and, furthermore, the excellent volume of votes from the significant third-place finish of populist and rebellious Franco Parisi, who performed far above expectations by accumulating over 2,345,000 votes, close to 20%, could play somehow in Jara's favor.

Parisi, who presented himself as the alternative to the extremes—"neither communist nor facho"—, though with evident connections to the successful narratives of Trump and Milei , has not yet decided to endorse either of the remaining candidates. "Votes are earned, not given away. Win over the streets, as we did. Chile needs less show and more solutions: pensions that are enough, secure borders, and a state that doesn't steal from those below," he said in his speech after today's results, obviously knowing he holds a lot of critical sway in the definitive showdown a month from now.

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Ecuador

Meanwhile, in Ecuador, the ruling party is receiving a harsh rebuke from the electorate on the four questions that made up the popular consultation held this Sunday. The first three were referendums (reestablishment of foreign military bases, elimination of public financing for political parties, and reduction of the legislative apparatus), and the last was a consultation on convening a Constituent Assembly. The first thing I want to highlight, above all, is the extraordinary democratic vocation that exists in Ecuador, expressed in the regular calling of referendums, especially in recent years. Let's recall the 2023 one to decide whether to leave oil underground in the protected natural area known as Yasuní, the one called by Noboa last year, and this latest one, also promoted by him.

The second thing to highlight, especially seeing the results from today, is that the Ecuadorian electorate is dynamic, it is alive. Anyone might think Noboa would have the best sway here given his clear victory in this year's presidential election, however the people seem to have rejected, for now, all of his proposals. In Manta, where a US military base was previously located until the proclamation of the current constitution, the majority voted 'no', and in general there was much consensus in this sense across the whole country. Finally, I also want to highlight the transparency of the Ecuadorian electoral system. The electoral authority's service is very efficient and open, showing both the overall data and the supporting records.

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Venezuela/US

Excelling psywar 👇

Early today, this in the Eastern Pacific 👇

This is all for today’s report.