The Latin American Report # 59

_{Edited with Canva.}

Brazil

Today we have recovered not one but four positive notes in economic and financial matters in the South American giant, which continues to speak of the good moment the country is experiencing. Even if this dynamic is not directly associated with Lula da Silva's return to power, it undoubtedly feeds the flattering views on his administration, that at the same time has something to do with Fernando Haddad as his winning horse on this front. Today, the Brazilian Central Bank announced the name of its future digital currency, "Drex", scheduled for 2024. This initiative intends to "democratize" access to financial services —boosting the supply of loans, investments, and insurance— according to an official who spoke today at a debate organized by the entity, which also specified that DLT will be used to access records in a "simple and reliable" way, while tokenized bank deposits will support retail access.

_Source

On the other hand, the commercialization of the soybean harvest corresponding to the current season surpassed 75% of the projected production volume, according to an assessment by the consulting firm Safras & Mercado reported by Reuters. Brazil is both the largest producer and exporter of the referred commodity. Also a stronghold in the export of coffee, above all in its arabica variety, the soccer nation has seen a notable increase in shipment agreements of the robusta variety, which according to the British news agency is widely used to produce instant coffee. Here Brazil finds itself competing against other giants in the industry such as Vietnam and Indonesia, with a lower price —by 80 ollars— that some analysts consider to be a temporary window of opportunity, through which it can export "6 million bags of robusta beans in the season". Regarding corn production, a consulting firm quoted by Reuters revised upwards by a little more than 3 million tons its estimate of the annual volume to be reached, setting it now at 135,4 million. This is due to a very productive second crop there, boosted by favorable environmental conditions.

_{A corn warehouse in one of São Paulo's ports (source).}

Argentina

The local currency continues in an unstoppable losing dynamic; the rate in the informal market remains at levels close to the worst historical value, with a reported gap concerning the official rate of over 110%, by the way, not far from the one registered today in Cuba by my maths, though we need to take note of the deep differences of all kinds between both economies. Electoral uncertainty is adding to the problems, and it will not be less once the definitive candidates for the presidency for each political grouping are defined this Sunday; the presidential elections are scheduled for next November.

_{Argentines decide this Sunday the candidates for the presidency and other high-level positions in the national government (source).}

In an interesting social dynamic, as a result of the crisis I would say structural that the country is going through, it is reported that people trust more in a saint related to good luck in labor than in politicians. "There are many people who come from many parts of the country to ask for work[, and] they ask it to a saint because they can't ask it to a politician", a retired man in his 60s told Argentine journalist Claudia Martini. Meat, a star product within the food supply in Argentina due to its extraordinary productive capacity, is one of those that has seen its price grow in a representative way in the dangerous inflationary context that is being experienced there; in general, even people with a steady job are having problems to acquire the basic resources for each month. "Salaries don't add up. It is the missing pillar. Work gives dignity, but you also have to have money to be able to live," added another Argentine who is betting on San Cayetano to improve her labor position.

Your regional quick roundup

• Salvadoran Foreign Minister Alexandra Hill acknowledged the U.S. government's extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Ecuadorian beneficiaries —nearly 239,000— until 2025. For the Secretary of Homeland Security to enable the application of immigrants from a given country to TPS, this must be in the midst of an armed conflict, an environmental or health emergency, or other "extraordinary and temporary conditions", where it seems to me that the Ecuadorian situation fits and also that of other countries such as Nicaragua and Honduras, whose migrant beneficiaries of TPS have also seen this status extended in similar terms. Bilateral relations between Washington and San Salvador are not going through their best moment, with strong cross declarations that have President Nayib Bukele's security strategy at the center.
  

• And private consultants foresee an average growth of 2.7% of Mexico's gross domestic product for the current year, with the best of the estimates setting it 8 percentage points above the referred value. For next year, the forecast is 1.5%. The fundamentally Chinese nearshoring, which we discussed here in a previous report, is an important factor in boosting the level of economic activity, and now we can add the real possibility, according to several experts, that the monetary authority will finally reduce the benchmark interest rate by the end of this year (you can read more about this here).
  

This is all for our fifty-ninth report. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.

_{Edited with Canva.}