The Latin American Report # 459

Guyanese authorities denounced on Saturday an incursion of a Venezuelan Navy vessel into the disputed waters of the Essequibo region, where Houston-based ExxonMobil is developing a large offshore deposit. This conflict is very interesting and dates back to when this area was a de facto property of Great Britain, but claimed by Venezuela for being in the domains recognized to the Kingdom of Spain during its colonial period. There is a solid legal narrative to which I subscribe that states that Venezuela was blatantly dispossessed of the region—which constitutes an important portion of what is now recognized as Guyanese territory—by the British. It was through the resolution of an arbitration award at the end of the 19th century, allegedly rigged with the complicity of Russia and the passivity of the United States. Venezuela had then turned to the north, appealing to the Monroe Doctrine, and found some good support. In the context of Guyana's independence in 1996, [a way was established](https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume 561/volume-561-i-8192-english.pdf) to resolve the standing differences, which is the only one recognized by Caracas.

Guyana, on the other hand, from a not very conciliatory position, has appealed to the International Court of Justice, whose jurisdiction in this case is dismissed by Venezuela. However, it participates and exposes its rationale there. I discussed the plot in this September 2023 report. Now, Georgetown turns to the United States to defend it against legal and military skirmishes from Miraflores Palace. As expected in this context, Washington is supporting the government of Irfaan Ali. “Further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime,” warned Foggy Bottom. Beyond the symbolic dimension, Venezuela focused more on the dispute after the discovery of sound oil deposits about 10 years ago. It declares ExxonMobil's facilities illegal. Incidentally, it is interesting that a Chinese company also has a stake in the oil activity in the 11 billion barrels of oil-estimated Stabroek Block, but the Bolivarian authorities do not refer to this.

“Guyana's maritime boundaries are recognized under international law. This is a serious development concerning our nation's maritime territory. We will not tolerate threats to territorial integrity,” Ali said on Saturday, but the United Kingdom itself recognized that there was a dispute. So, I think the claimed area is subject to embargo until a definitive resolution is achieved. “He's telling bald-faced lies,” Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said in response to the Guyanese leader's statements (by the way, the Chavista government calls Ali the “Caribbean Zelenskyy”). “Those waters are not part of Guyanese territory, since it is a maritime zone pending delimitation under international law,” said the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry. In December 2023, an agreement was signed in Argyle, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, with the important mediation of Lula da Silva—there are strong security interests for Brazil in this conflict—, to seek an understanding within the sustained diplomatic crisis to avoid an escalation, but everything has broken down again somehow.

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Uruguay

The Broad Front (Frente Amplio in Spanish), a center-left political organization, has given José Mujica the joy of returning to power in the twilight of the influential South American leader's life. The rising cost of living and a worrying rise in criminal activity seem to have determined the defeat of the ruling party, although no abrupt changes are expected in the way the economy and society in general are managed in this small, liberal, and relatively prosperous nation—although one-fifth of Uruguayans experience multidimensional poverty. The new president, Yamandú Orsi, presents himself as part of a modern left. He has proposed to attract foreign investment and human capital to reflate the economy while taking back some support and aid to balance income distribution.

The latter is complex because increasing public spending is almost always an unsettling signal to the markets. Over the years, the controversial José Mujica, a former guerrilla warrior almost defeated by cancer, has become entrenched in a social-democratic, stability-loving perspective that is not at odds with the private sector. Perhaps this is why the political situation in Uruguay is not as tense as in practically the whole region. “Let us always be adversaries, but never enemies. And let us distance ourselves as far as possible from cynicism,” said Orsi in his inaugural speech. “A lot of dialogue, an outstretched hand, and the ability to understand the different sensitivities expressed by our community will be necessary,” he added.

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Argentina

“The eyes of the world are now on Argentina after a long time. As is the case of Elon,” said Milei. The full remarks before a half-empty Congress 👇.