The Latin American Report # 358

This Spanish EFE cable reviews the main points of discussion on relations between the United States and the forgotten and displaced Latin America according to the color of the candidate aspiring to take over the Resolute desk. On Donald Trump's side, beyond a proposal on tariffs that touches Mexico—linked to his protectionist stance—, references to the so-called American “backyard” concentrate on the manipulation of the migration issue, exaggerating facts or dynamics and lending his powerful loudspeaker to spread fake news related to it. In this same topic, the former president's threats to return to a more restrictive border management policy feed the anxiety of desperate migrants who are crowding into violent Mexico or are on their way crossing the dangerous Darién Gap.

On the other hand, according to EFE's recovery, Harris has not been evident when it comes to projecting her idea for a region that surely is not part of Washington's main concerns, shy if not reluctant to make a sound contribution to its integral growth. This is even though much of the tension that has been experienced in recent years along the U.S. southwest border is due to the poor performance of the governments here in critical areas such as the economy and security, but also to the lack of U.S. strategic investment and the development of regional socio-political platforms with an emphasis on cooperation and consensus-building—opting out counterproductive ideological punishment as in the cases of Cuba and Venezuela.

I am not unaware that there is an important financial flow benefiting Latin America that has Washington as its main tributary or supplier, but it is necessary to review the destinations of that aid, its conditions, and in any case, to escalate relations based on discussions aimed at the development of the peoples, fundamentally favoring the access of their lower strata to decent offers and services. Although in principle the United States is not obliged to help any nation, history tells us that it has a direct responsibility in the current status of the entire Western Hemisphere, not infrequently to the disgrace of the countries further south.

One of the most discussed aspects in this regard is the economic sanctions that successive U.S. administrations have selectively imposed against Latin American countries, with Cuba and Venezuela as the most shaken by this controversial foreign policy tool right now, part of broader regime-change-oriented efforts. If Trump wins, it is predicted that he will toughen sanctions against Caracas and Havana, while Harris would keep the current regulations intact, perhaps with some moderate changes (let's remember that the first term of a president is not usually very aggressive in foreign policy, leaving for a potential second term the construction of some legacy in this issue).

I also left open the possibility that Trump will not follow through with his policy of “maximum pressure” against Venezuela and the island, taking note of the not-so-safe steps that made him take—back in 2019—hawkish politicians such as John Bolton—installed in the West Wing—or the Cuban-born congressman Marco Rubio. One of the main fiascos of his administration was the promotion of Juan Guaidó as a real alternative to Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Guaidó proved to be an anodyne parliamentarian that Trump himself dismissed as soon as he saw him on the scene, according to Bolton's memoirs about his time in the White House.

Regarding the Cuban case, resuming his aggressive posture would detonate the few bridges that still move some oxygen to Havana at a time when the Cuban people need above all “charity”, according to a recognized expert on Cuban-U.S. relations. It would be genocidal, to be more clear, although Biden is not being less so as he maintained the absurd designation of Cuba as a country sponsor of terrorism bequeathed by Trump. The move, more than a mere irritant, turned the Island into a stinky actor within the US-dominated world financial market. The next presidential term that will open in the United States on January 6th could be decisive for Latin America.

And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.

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