The Latin American Report # 151

Javier Milei would do well to study recent political history

The ultra-liberal president has condemned to the street some 7,000 public sector workers, whose contracts began this year and were to be renewed as soon as 2024 begins. In Milei's worldview, all of them were awarded politically tinged contracts—the outgoing governing force, they said, usually seeks to secure certain acolytes—, without questioning the possibility that there are at least a hundred who have cleanly won their jobs. For the first quarter of next year, the government intends to go further back in the payroll of public employees, and so review hires even before 2023. Now many understand that when in the pre-electoral speech of the current president it was said that the adjustment would be paid by the State or "politics" and not by the private sector—the caste that, at the end of the day, Milei defends—, that State is not an entelechy, but a structure made up of people, by people who are the ones who end up paying for the adjustment.

A union that represents public workers has criticized in harsh terms this last decree of Milei, calling it an "aggression", and also threatening that "nobody expects us to accept even a single dismissal". In the meantime, the powerful General Confederation of Labor will coordinate a march this Wednesday in alliance with left-wing social organizations to demand the repeal of a controversial emergency decree that we have already discussed here, through which Milei ended up legislating—from the Executive—very serious, neuralgic aspects of the Argentine economic system. In the courts, the measure of the government of La Libertad Avanza is already facing a concentrated effort to declare its potential "nullity", as it is being discussed whether the situation of the country certainly applied for Milei to arrogate to himself these strong legislative powers.

If Congress does not end up blessing the also-called mega decree, Milei told the sweet—with the politician he likes—Luis Majul of LN+ that he would call for a plebiscite, which even if the result smiled on him would not be binding (I still find LN+'s journalistic exercise abhorrent because of its bias). But he, Milei, faces a risk that I do not know if he has made the effort to evaluate in recent experiences such as the Chilean one, where a president believes that the popular backing in a presidential election will be reflected in every consultation he makes in what follows. Even when he still presumably has a positive electoral inertia, the context does not seem to indicate that Milei has intact the 56% support which reflected the result of his final battle against Sergio Massa. Why? Because the concrete impact of his economic program is beginning to be felt by many who voted for him following the blind plan to punish the Peronist government—a well-earned punishment anyway—, because "anything" was better than its continuity in power.

Migrants continue on their way in caravan to the border

The umpteenth caravan of migrants that left Tapachula on Sunday heading for Greg Abbott's barbed wire fence—I know some enter through Arizona, but I like to highlight this Texas aspect for its symbolism—, continued moving through the state of Chiapas yesterday, Tuesday. All these people hope that the focus of Washington and Mexico City—as they deliberate today on what to do with the crisis—will be to support their socioeconomic reinsertion in third nations rather than to persecute and deport. For the people who venture into these chaotic caravans, which at some point usually break up, no solution involves returning to their countries of origin, although often the factor that weighs most heavily in that position is to avoid the public scorn of having failed to reach the United States. I continue to be concerned that the narrative defended by migrants about the reasons why they have left their countries does not make a solid case for applying for political asylum, which continues to tell us that other channels are demanded to address the needs of groups that do not fit within refugee policies, and, as I always say, above all to attack the causes and conditions that squeeze Latin Americans. AMLO will insist on this dimension of the problem, by reports.

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"To ask for protection, that they give me political protection because I can't return to Colombia, or that they allow me to stay in a country where I can regularize my status and work and support my family", was the feeling of Norbey Díaz Ríos, a man close to 50 years old who is part of the caravan. The migrants protested when they passed through a key customs point in the municipality of Huixtla, whose police had riot gear ready. Meanwhile, in Mexico City, Mexican and U.S. officials deliberated on measures to be agreed upon by the Biden and AMLO administrations. The head of Foggy Bottom, according to this EFE report, will demand that Latin American transit countries offer legal avenues for migrants to settle there, somehow sharing the crisis. In what would be a victory for the Republicans, a concession to solve an unrelated problem such as the war in Ukraine, the White House would be considering reinstating a controversial and restrictive immigration regulation that Trump based on Title 42 of the United States Code. We will closely follow the outcome of the negotiations and analyze them in our next issue.

And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.