Cuban president calls to implement "urgent" transformations in the midst of the storm

The facts are proving us right regarding how we are viewing certain disputes and political issues in this space. My hard evidence-based approach means we do not fall into errors like those incurred by two New York Times journalists here, who did not identify the difference between a concrete, material administrative action and the exposure of some guidance, or the difference between the attributions of the Treasury's OFAC and the Commerce Department's BIS. But the topic I want to comment on today is the recent call by Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel to "implement the urgent transformations, the most necessary ones, that must be made to the economic and social model" in force on the Island. According to a report on the last meeting of the Cuban Council of Ministers, published in the official newspaper of the Cuban Communist Party, these transformations should aim to

[stimulate] business autonomy; municipal autonomy; the resizing of the state apparatus, the Government and institutions; national food production, with municipal balances; the change in the energy matrix, which is not just renewable sources, but everything related to national crude oil; exports, linking them with the flexibilities that were approved for foreign direct investment; leveraging economic associations between the state and private sectors, especially at the municipal level; and the promotion of businesses with Cubans residing abroad.

Now let's go to what I expressed on February 28 via X, addressing the stance of a powerful, U.S.-based Cuban businessman who calls on Havana to "negotiate" with the Trump's White House—which is trying to suffocate, with almost everything it has, the Cuban economy—, even though it is "not healthy" to do so "under pressure". Hugo Cancio, owner of a controversial digital newspaper and an online supermarket where Cubans abroad order food and other basic products for their relatives here, believes that the first thing Cuba must advance right now is "a forceful economic reform that allows the return of the diaspora," opening "the legal framework so that the private sector in Cuba has greater capacity for movement." "The private sector has a fundamental role in the Cuban economy," he states.

Finally, Cancio believes that the United States can have a positive economic impact, but that it should leave the political matters to Cubans. And herein lies precisely one of his main errors, because economic changes are as political as those more directly related to democratic development. Thus, I think that modifying the business-related regulatory framework—i.e. foreign trade—is not something that should be discussed in a negotiation with the Resolution Desk's owner. Yes, it may be debatable that Cuban imports can only be processed through a state company. Or that the strategic sectors of the economy are managed by GAESA, a controversial, Cuban Armed Forces-affiliated conglomerate. These are legitimate debates as long as they do not undermine Cuban sovereignty over these and other issues.

Those who reign on Pennsylvania Avenue have no right to exercise any degree of political tutelage over us. It is another matter that certain changes they want to see here, for example, in the economic sphere, correspond to some extent to those that are, certainly, necessary and urgent to make organically. But in this sense, I then said that "[the] problem for Cuba is that the timing of any [serious] decision it makes in this context will be suspicious." "Why does this happen now and not before? Is it a change forced by the conjuncture or the result of a natural reform process?" I asked myself, immediately stating that "I do believe there has been a costly delay."

And that is precisely the discussion that emerges from the recent call by the Cuban president, because it occurs in a context in which the Foggy Bottom's head, Marco Rubio, has stressed consistently that he would like to see, above all, economic changes in Cuba. He said it while in Munich in a dialogue with Bloomberg, and more recently during his stop in Saint Kitts. "The private sector in Cuba is quite small. It exists, but it's small. And it certainly in and of itself does not have the capacity to deal with the scale and scope of the challenges they're facing. But if the Cuban economy were a functioning economy, it would have a much larger private sector," he said at the St. Kitts Marriott Beach Resort. Then, although the movement Cuba now seems to be embracing more forcefully—a one which has been discussed for years and has even been promoted by allies like Vietnam—may be organic, the hypothesis that it is being announced amidst pressure is not unreasonable, and gives some life to recent articles like those published these days in Axios and the Miami Herald about alleged conversations between Rubio and Raúl Castro's grandson; even the strident Laura Loomer has been very insistent on the Cuban issue. Many times, in politics, appearing to be is enough.

BREAKING. A quite interesting story for many reasons 👇, particularly in terms of potential negotiation power.

This is all for today's report. Source for the image in the cover.