Will this bull cycle be similar to 2021?
We believe in cyclical repetition or the resemblance of each crypto cycle, and that these patterns can help people predict the market. I came into the scene in late 2017, and three months later, prices X20 and X50'ed for a lot of crypto project back then. Unfortunately, I did not learn how the market worked, and this was true for millions of people who were introduced to cryptocurrency in 2017.
Then four years later, 2021 happened. I believe there were many differences between the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, but the main one was that BTC, for example, X3'ed its ATH from 2017 to 2021. However, one of the most significant developments in 2021 was that many people were unaware that the market would explode in the manner it did.
Things like COVID reduced expectations, and there were a lot of dumps here and there. However, is the negative sentiment we saw in 2020 the same as what we are seeing now? I do not think so. What we have now is higher than in 2021, owing to the high number of black swan events in this cycle, which caused a lot of FUD and panic.
I would like to think that many people are now aware. What I mean is that many people in crypto are now educated; most people understand how the crypto cycle works and are currently positioning themselves better than in the previous cycle, so the longer the market takes to replicate the 2021 figures, the more agitated people become.
Look at it this way.
When people make mistakes and learn from them, they are constantly looking for new opportunities to correct their mistakes. The worst thing in life is learning lessons from a single mistake that you may never have the opportunity to correct or make up for.
In the space, I have seen a lot of intelligent people; this was not the case in 2021. People were clueless back then, and they gambled heavily. Others made a lot of money gambling memecoin but did not take a profit. These fatal regrets have created an unintentional learning curve, prompting others to be more intentional about crypto education.
Crypto relies heavily on people for history to repeat itself, or at least resemble itself. This means that as more people learn about cryptocurrency, the way different cycles work will change. This does not imply that there will be no bulls and bears; rather, the way the market works may change.
For example, look at how the BTC ATH came before the halving; this has never happened in history or in any other cycle; it simply means that the market can transcend; the greater the impact of human actions, the more likely the market is to break old records and set new ones. Nowadays, we do not hear the famous "crypto is rat poison" type of talk from conventional wealthy people. It is not that wealthy people do not say ugly things about crypto; it is just not as FUDish as it used to be.
*Does this mean that more people are reckoning with crypto?
I would not say that; rather, more people are adjusting to it and taking the time to fully understand the technology in order to deal with it.
You can probably see why some people do not believe this cycle will be the same as the last. There is some correlation in this market cycle that looks more like 2017 than 2021, which demonstrates how dynamic cryptocurrency is. I believe that in the future, people will not have to rely so heavily on patterns, due to the evolution that can occur with cryptocurrency.
It means that the present will become history, and new history will be created to contradict previous histories.
For what it is worth, I believe the current bull cycle will differ slightly from previous ones. This is not a negative statement or prediction; I simply believe that we will experience events that no one anticipated, and that these events may contribute to some people repeating the mistakes they made in the previous cycle.
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I'd say there are way more headwinds working against overall market this time around so I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't match the same energy as 2021. The biggest difference though - and it's huge - is the fact that BTC Spot ETFs are available now which means a lot of money can flow into Bitcoin if it starts to make a run. Way more than any other bull run in the past. If that pushes BTC to the moon I believe the rest of the markets will follow. Let's hope!
You're right, I totally agree, so many headwinds this time around, however you mentioned the spot ETFs, and this itself is a big catalyst and carries a lot of potential..
I'll be waiting, I guess we all be waiting to see how it turns out. Personally, anything above 150k for BTC means the alts will surge and pump really hard
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You’re spot on with this. Having a wide crypto knowledge is really changing the game and creating new opportunities. Thanks for sharing this insight.
Thanks for reading
You are welcome, brother.
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I also think this cycle will be different. The focus will be on the solid projects because of the crypto ETFs. I don't see people branching that much into the meme coins as much after what happened last time.
Well, many are already making a lot of money through memecoin. Although it's probably super shortlived but then anyone who takes profit would have made a lot of money
Hmmmnn. Do things like global inflation rates and economic recession contribute more sognificantly to these changes; perhaps extending or shortening a cycle over another?
How are projects also affected by this if true?
Just like I said, a lot of things affects how long or short or how regular some events in a market cycle works. Even the US elections and everything you mentioned in the comment
In essence, sometimes, it can be a 'game of emotions'. Who foresees best, makes the best.