The market sleeps when you are awake.
August started with massive BTC dumps and just as always, alt coins are being slaughtered. You're probably used to this playbook aren't you? Yes, this is all we've experienced from the beginning of the year: massive BTC dumps and alts dump even hardly and does not even recover 100% of the dump till another dump happens.
On second thought, July, aside from January, is the month with the highest crypto gains for the year. I could be wrong, but I believe this is the case, and I was not expecting the pump to continue without some minor corrections.
However, this does not feel like a minor correction, and the FUD is back in full force, with people becoming scared and pushing various agendas based on what they believe is happening.
Agendas cause people to become overly excited or scared. For example, during the Ethereum pump in July, many people were already saying "send it to 10k." While Ethereum can easily reach 10k very quickly, I thought it was too soon for that to happen in such a short period.
These same people are FUDDING the market by claiming that the bull run has ended, despite the fact that only a week ago they were all saying "send it to 10k". So emotional agenda is something that's popular, people push these agendas when they're either too scared or excessively happy.
Again, this cycle is absolutely one strange cycle, we've had so many things check, except that some key metrics to signal that market is still going to pump has not yet ticked,and this is leading some analyst to think that alt season will probably happen at the beginning of next year.
While it's a logical deduction, it's actually something that has quite happened in the past. The market is dynamic enough to mirror patterns, but not repeat them,but I think these deductions are just logical and sentimental deductions.
However, at this point, everyone is attempting to be logical. I read a post today where someone regretted trusting altcoins and wished they hadn't, but that is how we are; everyone is feeling uneasy about the uncertainty of this bullrun year, and because of the poor performance, we are all just trying to be logical at this point. However, I am not going to buy into the "BTC has destroyed alts" narrative.
while I believe BTC is institutionalized and where the smart money is, I also believe it is a chain that has been difficult to build over the years. However, I agree that "massive overprinting of crypto projects has caused massive dilution in the market."
The reason for this is that the more there is to buy, the less money can flow into different projects. It is been a crazy first eight months of the year, with 99% of people failing to meet their expectations for this market.
It is clear that no one cares when BTC pumps, but everyone feels suicidal when it dumps.
Why?
The dump is a direct impact on alts, and also tells you how much of BTC is mostly institutional money and how the rest is alts. Overall, you would be foolish to ignore what could happen in the next month or two.
Since September is always a dump month, I believe the dumps we have seen at the start of this month will correct in a week or two and the market will regain its momentum.
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"massive overprinting of crypto projects has caused massive dilution in the market."
This is why it will be very difficult for Alt to experience a massive surge in price. Because most people have shifted their focus to memes tokens, especially from pump.fun play where a token can pump to almost 50,000% in a split of time. Where $100 invested can deliver almost $50k within a very short period of time. This has really affected the Alt market. Am so much surprise to see the market dump this way, always the case. Some investors might shift to short-term investments and profits targets.
Yes, this is one main reason. Dilution is a struggle, However, I think protocols that builds great products with utility will survive
Great!
people just follow the wind, all well? "go pump, let's buy!" all bad? "no crap time to sell everything at loss"
these dumps and pumps are good for traders, altough as always something cant keep pumping forever
Traders are the biggest winners, unfortunately nobs like us cannot even dare lol. I don't even have the firepower to make any attempts, trading is never my skillset
I have been doing sport exchanges trading with good result before the kid came, but that was not as volatile as crypto, I don't even try here lol
I don't do it even before the kid came, I still don't do it now lol . How does sports exchange work, you mean sports betting?
Yep, sports betting but with market maker where you place a buy/sell order for a quote of a result. Example I buy the draw at high value at 3,75 then when the order is taken i sell the draw at lower value at 3,7. I have earn the tick (0,05) and cash out before the match starts
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It's sad to see people scared by dips in BTC, it may be below $115K but it didn't drop to $10K... It does affect the alts as too many people tend to be either emotional or as you said, trying to overly logical. It would be nice to see huge gains now, but it's clear we'll have to wait. I'm getting used to it...
Most people scared of this dip aren't holding BTC per se. The fear is mostly from how BTC dumps the market really bad. Although I noticed that alts dumped badly, but not as badly as it would do, although still as bad. 90% of people do not really hold BTC, just institutions
@josediccus i really love your analysis on this thanks 👍 for the information awesome 👍
BTC is the kind of crypto, and when it moves down, everyone gets scared. It's not going to change, but I think the ETFs have made it so that the alts don't go up as much.
Haha, let's see how everything turns out in this cycle, unfortunately it's mostly institutions that buys BTC, and it's just so much that it's only retails that now owns a lot of alts.
This market has been crazy. One minute people are happy, the next they’re scared. I also think too many new altcoins are messing things up. Hopefully things get better before September comes. I am really hoping..
I think September/October will be the begining of something good for crypto, especially for alts. It's been scary for the beginning of the month lol..
Yeah, I truly hope so too because I feel most of these periods are usually showing good signs . But I hope the best happens soon.
Hi Josh, how are you? It's been awhile
Yes it's been a while, how are you too?
I'm fine☺️.. I've just been off Hive for awhile, but I guess I'm back lol
As for me, since the starting of this year on BTC , it has not been encouraging at all with the way market is not stable. The funniest things is that only BTC is pumping up, other alt coin is just stagnant and people's belief is that anytime BTC is pumping, other coins must follow. I wonder why this year own it just different.
It actually surprised many people even me and our expectations doesn't meet at all. Now we enter August, BTC start dumping again, and like you said, September is always a month that BTC do dump. Let's just hope it won't dump too much before it pick up back.
But we can't just put hope there, crypto world is very funny sometimes, by November /December things might change and BTC might skyrocket and other alt coin might follow as well. Until then let's wait and see.
Thanks for the analysis bro.
The best to do is to learn how the market works. I've been in this space close to 8 years, and I regret not learning about the market, and that's why I'm probably still poor.
In essence, the market will pump, especially for altcoins, but it might take a while longer
Yeah might take a while longer before it pump, only if we can wait
The emotional agenda is quite obvious at this point in time, especially known that the same pattern is more or less being repeated again.
I've read on CT that the top has already been in lol, and it's just downward momentum from here on out, others are saying it's a local top and a pump will happen around the beginning of Q4.
I for sure will keep accumulating and focusing on what I can control, but I do agree that it's important to observe what could be happening in the coming months with the price action of BTC and the rest of the alts.
BTC hasn't even topped, I reckon it hits 150, but that'll happen in October/November, and this means that if alts will pump then the pump of alts will probably be sharp and quick and happens October/November.
This is textbook how it has happened for over 12 years, except in 2017 when the pump mostly happened in December
Right, I expect another bigger pump is on the horizon for BTC before the top sets in, alts will probably pump in a parabolic way for a relatively short amount of time as you've pointed out. That's the moment that everyone seemed to be timing in taking profits lol.
I think it will probably not be that different this time around, maybe a little bit early or later.
I am strangely relaxed so far, even though I'll begin to analyze my positions and decide on what to do with them and on what schedule. Normally, this should have been planned already, and it is, for my major positions, but as you said, it's been a curious bull market so far, so more adjustments may be needed.