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Bitcoin pumping hard today. From 78k it's now 92k, now we don't know if we've seen the bottom or if the 30% retracement we saw in 2021 has occured.

I suppose if BTC had reached 75k, we could have said yes, but since we didn't, it could still drop to 75k or even lower.

However, perhaps 78k was the new low, and that was the final dump before it begins to consolidate. I say this because each cycle is unique, and perhaps 78k is now the lowest low, and BTC will not fall below 78k again this cycle.

The second scenario is that it could drop below 75k, possibly to 70 or 72k, with the alts not fully following suit. Now, anything is possible because the market has proven most technical analysis wrong, at least to a greater extent.

A Look At The Broad Market

Now, this is only a brief analysis from my perspective this is not a TA, just observations from my POV

Many argue that this cycle's underperformance is due to market oversaturation. I am not going to stand here and argue whether this is true or not. Prior to 2025, there was no saturation argument; I believe people began to use these statistics because the market did not perform as expected.

There were no oversaturation statistics in 2022, 23 or early 2024, but we began to see them in early 2025, seemingly out of nowhere. Now, I do not see many projects being built in the space.

However, DEPIN and RWT were the only types of projects that gained popularity in 2024/25, but it is worth noting that more than 80% of these projects were founded in 2022 and only began to gain momentum in 2025.

DEPIN projects now have use cases and solid projects to support what they are building. However, they have been largely overlooked because there are no immediate profits or gains.

My point is that there are not many alt projects with real use cases out there, and from 2021 to 2025, I am not sure we have even seen a 20% growth in alt projects.

So, where is the saturation coming from?

Memes.

To refer to memes as alt projects looks insanely criminal. Because it is unfair to compare actual projects with utilities to pump and dumps.

This is the primary reason why alts are dehumanized with the "oversaturation" tag.

Now, let's look at the psychological behavior towards memes. There is always the misconception that a BTC maxi can not buy memes. Okay, I agree that will not hold alts, but the assumption that they will completely avoid memes is incorrect.

This is due to their desire to become rich. Inasmuch as BTC maxis adores Bitcoin, they are also humans who are prone to greed, so why? Because it makes sense. People are predictable, especially in terms of greed.

Since memes are pump and dumps with no solid foundation, a rational thinking BTC maxi would invest in memes for profit because they believe they can easily extract their money and buy more BTC.

Money flows into memes even from rational people and OGs

The money flowing into memes is not just coming from newbies or altcoiners. In fact, most regular altcoiners would not gamble on memes because their portfolios are already down.

A person who is losing lacks the confidence to continue gambling unless they have three scrotums and gambler's syndrome.

A person who bought $TRUMP of a million dollars is not a pleb or newbie

While we think ($TRUMP) it is a presidential inauguration coin, it is actually a classic meme, with the only difference being that it is not owned by a criminal. Take a look at how many people invested in $TRUMP, and the insane volume.

Do you think only altcoiners bought it?

No. Before our crypto identities, we're firstly humans, and all humans are prone to greed including a classic BTC maxis.

So altcoin saturation is not the issue; rather, the issue is the diversion of funds intended for solid projects into memes in the hope of multiplying the funds and returning them to one's preferred projects

Face it: we created memes, put money into them, got scammed, and then blamed oversaturation.

It is typical human being.

To be honest, I do not believe the effort we put into the analysis was worthwhile. The problem is our innate desire to get rich quick, and before we start blaming regular no-coiners or plebs, we should understand that even the most sane of us have some form of greed within us; but we do control it

The concept of oversaturation is overstated; there are not many new alt projects; the numbers we see are memes created on a daily basis to scam people and divert funds. You cannot be wiser than the market, just as you cannot serve two masters.

People who want to game memes and then switch back to BTC or alts have either been scammed or succeeded in a small percentage of cases.

It will take a cycle or two for people to realize that memes are not the place to gamble, and they can only risk what they are willing to lose. The numbers you see are memes, not real alts projects

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Interested in some more of my posts

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Why Is the grind getting harder?

Monopoly Is the Death of Civilization

Survival: Choas and Scarcity

Crypto: Gut & meaningful Connections

What is the primary barrier to entry in Web3?

What Are Some Things You Should not Do During A Bull Market Year?

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