Market sentiment: It has been a while.
I can't remember the last time I've written anything about crypto and the general state of the market, I think it's been over a month or so, if not more. This is actually deliberate.
For someone who enjoys analyzing market trends and studying people's emotions and sentiments, I must admit that this is the first time I have completely logged off and halted any content or thoughts that lead to a full-fledged content.
This is for two reasons.
First, I did not have anything new to say, and nothing has changed; it is been all BTC and alts, as usual, and I believe this has been the case since April. Secondly, I think I was feeling really jaded and tired, and I needed to just stop creating stuffs about crypto, and just let the market play out the way it wanted.
After this post, I might probably not talk about anything crypto again till August, or maybe even longer than that. However, this does not imply that I am not taking notes and learning behind the scenes; rather, I do not want to jinx it. I just want to watch the market play out as it sees fit, rather than making predictions and permutations.
Global unrest
Again, it is disappointing to see how global unrest has created uncertainty surrounding crypto assets. This is not to say that unrest will keep crypto down indefinitely; rather, when wars become chronic, it will be difficult for crypto to recover and shake off the FUD that comes with them.
We witnessed this with COVID.
I am not attempting to minimize the impact of COVID. It was gruesome for about 8 to 12 months, with millions of people dying around the world, but when the world finally got a break, we all witnessed the incredible recovery.
However, it is important to note that since 2020, we have had one war after another, the most recent being Israel and Iran, with Trump obviously tweeting from somewhere about the latest developments in the conflict.
Generally I'm only worried about the chronic nature of the war, as the more it lingers, the more uncertainty we have. We will always have wars; humanity has demonstrated that we cannot exist without conflict that destroys lives and property. I do not believe crypto is the only asset that will suffer as a result of war.
While gold and other metals are increasing in value despite everything, we must recognize that war causes people to want to own physical assets because these assets become more valuable when they are unable to access the devices that contain digital assets.
Of course, there's also the idea that digitals assets are bound to dump when there uncertain events around the war, and people are quick to make what they deem to be the "best decision" for their money.
Predictions
There won't be any
I try not to make predictions because they may be emotional rather than realistic, which can be disappointing. I like to just spend time analyzing and listening to OGs who knows the market better, then comparing and contrasting.
I am not making decisions based on anyone else's thoughts; instead, I am taking the time to listen to what many would consider "alleged crypto OGs." Another reason I am doing this is to see who will eventually turn out to be correct, or if no one will be correct at all.
Finally
Whatever happens in this cycle may not predict what happens when the next bear cycle hits in 2027, but I believe that many people who took the time to learn in 2025 (rather than being emotional) will be able to manage their emotions well in the next cycle.
So, whatever you do, continue to study the market's patterns and compare them to the previous cycle. Now is not the time to be completely scared and emotional; it will not change what happens.
The market will do whatever it pleases whenever it wants, so I think this is new the reality. However, we still continue to remain hopeful. Goodluck to everyone, and may the best few months favor us all.
Interested in some more of my posts
Why Is the grind getting harder?
Monopoly Is the Death of Civilization
Survival: Choas and Scarcity
Crypto: Gut & meaningful Connections
What is the primary barrier to entry in Web3?
What Are Some Things You Should not Do During A Bull Market Year?
The current market sentiment is peculiar... Yes, these wars, tariffs, and all the other negative stuff hit crypto, but even with all that, on the other side, we have so much crypto-specific positive news... I dislike too many regulations, but everyone was asking for that, and it's happening... and surprisingly, positive things are happening in that regard...
So, all in all, I keep positive spirits... In a nutshell, it's the same as before... Crypto is being suppressed most of the time, but it can't be done forever... It's just a matter of time before it will reach that banana zone... Will that happen in a month, a year, or the next cycle, I don't care... It will happen... 🙂
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I think after FTX and you know, the issue with CZ, are lot of people would rather prefer to have regulations rather than the FUD of one rogue exchange owner, rugging their exchange and making away with the money in one fell swoop.
I'm positive as well, but I just try to refrain from predictions, and just watch the market as it unfolds. Infact, I'm overly positive. For me, I still expect some crazy fireworks in a two or three months time, maybe not as high as 2021, and that's as close to a prediction as I'll ever make again.
You're right about the suppressions, but do you think they'll be able to suppress it for far too long?
Thanks for the Curation
IMO, there is no better thing than crypto atm... Don't see anything else that can compete with the blockchain tech, transparency, and incentives... What would be "far too long" is my question... 😃
Perhaps 10 years, maybe 15. Someone said this suppression is because most government cabal do not want to be left behind, and also they don't want crypto adoption to take the shine from physical currencies.
That was one of the things that was/is the main obstacles for crypto adoption... Transparency isn't the best things for corrupted governments around the world, but slowly, they are finding workarounds that... On the other side, I believe that we will have some new use-cases of crypto where we will be able to generate significant gains...
The most important thing, in my opinion, is that we continue to have the "choice" to opt-in some other things, and NOT just what we are told to... That wasn't the case BEFORE crypto...
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Thanks
Good move taking a break. Sometimes the best strategy is just stepping back and letting the market do its thing without overthinking every move. The constant noise can be exhausting. I'm now looking into something interesting, AI bots doing the trading. What are your thoughts on that. Wanted to find out from experienced guys like you bro
I've heard about bot trading, but I've never ventured into it since I'm not a trading person, myself. I think at some point I'll try it, but for now, I'm not emotionally stable enough to attempt or try it out..
That's a wise decision bro, I did more research and it's ok but still has a risk like usual trading so I'll put it aside and become a master before
I gotta say I also enjoy more non crypto posts, i got more to say aswell... I don't expect much pump unless there is a regime change and all this ends soon but wars rarely ends soon see Russia Ukraine... What I fear more is eventually China attacking Taiwan, it's the last big geopolitical tension, that would mess up crypto for good
I was a heavy crypto poster, infact it's the niche I enjoy the most.
China really don't fight, they just choose to react with something different. I may be wrong, but I feel that the Chinese are even more concerned about their tech than war..
So far it's true, China has never fought, they built commercial networks and investments around... Let's see... at this point we can only hope Iran gives up on nuke bombs and a deal is made to close this conflict quickly
Iran might likely not do so. War and violence seems to be in the DNA of their leaders.
Yeah, realistically it won't happen, it's just a hope for less deaths and a quick end
On an other side I wouldn't mind a regime change, women deserve more freedom and not getting beaten to show their hairs
Looks like we'll have a few more months of hard times in crypto, and not only. But they will pass too.
Haha it feels funny that we've been making predictions since January and none of them has been correct lol.
They've been a few. But we have mostly been wrong on the short term, that's true.
Yes, most for me has been wrong, I think 80% of the time, but it's what it is.
The problem is no one knows, things could turn out great, but more likely it will be ugly. Why predict when no one can, you just will either be a prophet or a fool. We all want the ALTs to perform, but this cycle is different and all cycles forward will be the same I think. Get used to unpredictability, then again, the world has always been this way.
!PAKS
I think they'll eventually turn out great. The problem with the cycle is the shift in patterns and events. 2017 was like that. We never truly saw the market blow up until November/December, unlike in 2021 when it started in August/September.
However, I'm just refraining from predictions and just watching what this market cycle will resemble: 2017 or 2021..
I completely understand your decision to take a break from posting about crypto. It's refreshing to see someone acknowledge the emotional toll that the market can take on us. I think your approach to not making predictions and instead focusing on analysis and learning is a great one. It's easy to get caught up in the hype and fear, but it's the calm and rational thinking that will ultimately serve us well in the long run.
I'm also curious about your thoughts on how the current global unrest is affecting the market. Do you think that the uncertainty and volatility will continue to be a major factor in the short term, or do you see any potential catalysts for a shift in the market?"
War and global unrest will always affect the price of crypto. COVID affected the market acutely, and the decline was massive in 2020, but then there was a recovery, and several months later, we had the bullrun of 2021.
Russia VS Ukraine was another one, now it's currently Israel and Iran. It's just like how people will rush to withdraw their money from a bank if they hear that the bank is going bankrupt.
Your analysis of how ongoing wars and conflicts impact the digital asset market is very realistic. The general mood of uncertainty pushes investors toward physical assets like gold.
The market is its own beast, and I think that the global uncertainty is affecting quite a bit. It makes me wonder if it would ever stop, but I don't think it will because Politics will always be a factor.
The war might not stop, but maybe the parties that are fighting might go into remission and cease fire. I heard that Trump is saying that the Iran might be willing to make peace, I'm not sure how true this is.
May the few months favor us all and be the best for us oo
Crypto is unpredictable but in all, there must something we will learn in this circle.
No room to give up at all..we will watch and see how things unfolds before the end of this year
Good morning joe
Yeah, I replied someone in the comment section that this cycle might just look like 2017, rather than 2021. Because we didn't see alt coins pump very hard until Nov/DEC in 2017, meanwhile in 2021 it started from even August.. So yeah, I think we're all using this cycle to learn some useful experience for the next cycle.