The Bull Run EndGame: Why We Might Already Be in a Bear Market

Now the summer is ending in about two days I've this thought in my mind that what if we're in a bear market already and there's no more bull run ahead.

We've been feeding from social media that the greatest bull run of our life is coming soon in early 2025, prepare for it blah blah.

If we talk about history every single time when people had high hopes and everyone's expecting a bull run to begin, it's usually the end of the bull cycle.

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The Bull Cycle: We're in the second Year

The four year cycle isn't a myth but the way things are going on it's possible we're seeing a shorter bull cycle.

If we look at stocks they look like going to make another all time highs and continuing this rally

But on the other hand bitcoin is in big accumulation range.. altcoins look dead and this bull run we didn't even experienced anything like 2021.

That's what people are saying to give hope for altcoins to perform better.

But if we look with open eyes than bitcoin performed better than 2021.

It took 427days of accumulations before the breakout back in 2020 and 2021 bull run as well as in 2023 the accumulation period was same.

After accumulation it had 196days of uptrend before bitcoin crashed in 2021.

Even after 196 days in 2023 bull run, bitcoin haven't crashed yet like before this is because stock market isn't crashing either.

Now after this current accumulation phase bitcoin will have 180days of uptrend remaining and I checked it goes to the end of this year.

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Two Things can Happen Now

It is either going to crash or will continue to stay in the range being accumulated by the bankers and than continue the uptrend and break all time highs to form a top of this bull cycle.

Or in other case, bitcoin have already topped as it is past 196days of uptrend and it went 337% higher from lows.

So this is pretty good bull run bitcoin had compared to 2021.

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Macro events that Matters now

First big thing is going to be rate cuts and how bitcoin will take rate cuts (as if it'll crash or climb higher) I'll bet on uptrend.

But there's another macro narrative that's being developed in people mind by the politicians and media which is US election and trump becoming president will end up giving a generational bull run.

In my opinion this is going to end so bad for those people who have high expectations.

Looking at those stock charts they're mostly at all time high so I won't be surprised if markets end up crashing after elections.

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For now just survive the September

Historically September has always been a net negative month for bitcoin and crypto in general. So, the worse it can happen is bitcoin going down to $42kish.

I just want to see a 2012 style september that is rare and won't happen.. still I wish this coming month won't bring that much pain.

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Wrapping Up...

In the end we're in the endgame of this bull cycle believe it or not this is going to end like it did in 2022. There's hope that we'll see another rally before crash and that rally should better happen in Q4 starting from October.

We'll see what's coming and I'd love to know what you think is ahead of us. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

fin.

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_{Thanks for reading.Greetings.}

All the content and images are mine except indicated. No copyright infringement intended. 30/08/2024.

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