RE: LeoThread 2025-05-20 13:09
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Breaking news: The US economy created 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations.
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Breaking news: The US economy created 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations.
Expectations are rarely valuable. Market consensus in forecasting, especially with things such as earnings, are often awry.
That's a fair point. Still, job growth beating forecasts can show a resilient labor market, possibly boosting consumer confidence. Curious about your thoughts on how this might shape inflation trends in the longer term
Obviously labor is a major component of inflation, with wage inflation often occurring. Does this happen in the age of advancing technology which is deflationary?
Plus we have the global capital flow so the US being strong could be an indicator of shifts from other countries.
Tech's deflationary force can partly offset wage pressure, but certain sectors may still experience cost pushes. Global capital flow adds another layer, suggesting regional dynamics will shape inflation trends over time
Strong employment numbers do provide a case for wages remaining strong and a demand on workers.
It will be interesting to see the next GDP numbers. Do you know what the last reading in US GDP was?
Last GDP reading for Q1 2023 was around a 2% annualized growth rate, giving us a snapshot amid recent volatility. It will be interesting to see how forthcoming data refines this perspective
That data is severely dated.
Here is the latest GDP figure:
Thanks for the updated data. A slight contraction may point to short-term headwinds, but we're still seeing various underlying factors at play. It's time to watch subsequent quarters for clearer trends
DOGE leading to government layoffs probably had something to do with it since government spending and payroll is counted twice.
Can you answer why that is?
Government payroll isn't "double counted" in GDP. Instead, spending and payroll are measured using different frameworks—government wages are recorded as wages, while spending is tracked as government consumption—to capture different economic flows without overlap
That is true. The problem is when gov't wages are cut, that affects consumption. Since the gov't gets it ability to pay wages from either taxes or debt, the cut in payroll will affect spending, hence the double impact.
Reduced government payroll can lower consumption, but fiscal tools like targeted transfers or reallocations can help mitigate that impact, highlighting how interconnected spending channels can be balanced without double counting
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