Changing Hive and HBD Investment Strategy
More accurate description of what I am about to write about is executing the original Hive and Hive Dollars investment strategy. Hive, Hive Dollars, and Hive Power are all awesome assets. They all are good for specific purposes. We see Hive coins mainly traded in exchanges, Hive Dollars used within the network or kept in savings to earn 20% APR, and Hive Power used for curating and governance. Ever since APR was activated for Hive Dollars and kept increasing, many of us were interested to see how this Savings strategy would work. One of the great things Hive Dollars has been even without APR is that HBD can serve as a hedge for Hive price volatility. Activating APR made myself and other realize the potential of HBD as a hedge. Before that many would simply convert their HBD to HP, unless they had a specific purpose to save HBD or used within the network for other purposes.
My approach or goal has been 90/10 ratio for Hive HBD. In other words keeping 90% of Hive portfolio in Hive Power and 10% in HBD. This would never be exact, it would rather serve as a goal, kinda. Hive Power has always been the main purpose of investing in Hive. Because it allows people to participate in the decentralized network in a more meaningful manner and at the same time serve as an investment. If we don't believe in Hive as a decent asset for investment, what is the point of wasting time, efforts, and money here? Of course many participants of the network see the value the network brings to the web, the solutions it offers, and benefits for people. It is probably the decentralized network that makes the most sense. Not everything is perfect, nor should they be perfect. The destination might be the perfection, but the journey itself doesn't need to be.
I have always had HP, and since the activation of APR I have been saving HBD as well. More or less, I tried to stay true to my original 90/10 ratio. Over time due to price fluctuations one side gains more value than the other. Hence, HBD is used as a hedge. If price of Hive goes low enough, it might be the time to convert HBD to Hive or HP. Doing so would increase the HP faster than otherwise would have if HBD was converted to HP gradually. Maybe not. That was just my thinking as hedge strategy. The opportunity never came to convert HBD to Hive, because my low price target was too low. Twenty cents to be exact. That never happened. Recently I revealed that my price target was changed to thirty cents. That hasn't happened either. It may happen, I don't know. But price fell close enough to thirty cents. No reason wait at this point. I made up my mind and was ready to get rid of Hive Dollars, for now.
I bought Hive with all of my Hive Dollars, and managed to power up 41k+ HP. That is probably the biggest power up I have ever done. Now I have not HBD in Savings. However, I will continue to monitor monthly interest payments and general updates regarding Hive Dollars. I will never lose interest in HBD even without earning interest. That said I do plan to go back to HBD at some point. There always comes time when things should serve their purpose. For now HBD has served its purpose. I may hope the bottom for Hive's price is in. But I have been wrong many times, I stopped counting. I recently thought it was good time to buy more Litecoins. As soon as I buy prices goes down significantly. This happens all the time to me. I wouldn't be surprised if price of Hive dropped to twenty cents, now that I don't have HBD as a hedge anymore. The question is not how low Hive can go, the question I am more concerned about is what is a reasonable value for Hive. It has always been minimum of $1. But anything above current price is welcome.
I am not good with these prices and numbers, especially in a short term. That's why I rely on simple logics. This logic goes as following, 20% low risk annual interest is great. But that is the ceiling for what HBD can return over time. With assets like Hive upside much higher, so are the risks. I have come to a conclusion that Hive price will appreciate in value within a year. Especially if bitcoin continues making new all time highs. If bitcoin turns are different direction, I may have to reevaluate this idea. But if bitcoin does continue having a great year, this should lead for alt coins having a great year as well. If this logic plays out Hive may appreciate in value faster than expected, and definitely beat the 20% APR HBD would return. If things play out like this, there will be a time to move some Hive coins back to HBD.
Obviously, none of this is a financial advice. If anything, you would want to do the opposite of what I do. Because I lose more than I win when it comes to trading and investing. It is more of gambling, sort of. The great thing about this strategy is I was able to increase HP and it is always nice to have some more HP. But I also think there is such thing as too much HP. I don't think I need 100k HP. That is probably the max one person should have. In the future as network grows in decentralization and more coins are distributed, each participant should/would have less HP so that there is enough to accomodate the network growth and letting more participants have more HP. That of course is decided by the free market. There will be time when people will sell Hive and more new participants will gain more HP, and network will continue growing and becoming more decentralized. I think 60k HP is more than enough. So, eventually that is where I see my account to be, or not.
Anyway, what I wanted to say was, I am thinking it may be time to take risks and take risky investment positions. If things work out great, if not at least I gave it a try. If you know wen Hive moon, let me know in the comments.
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This has been one of the main headaches I've had since I started creating content on hive: HP or HBD in savings? Both are very good options and it's hard to decide. I've gone through several phases, from everything in HP to 50/50. And honestly I'm still exploring 😅
At this moment I think Hive hasn't started to rise yet, so it's good to keep accumulating, but always keeping a reserve in hbd to take advantage of A Fall 😅
Sounds like a good plan!
Depending on markets especially right now with a bull run you most likely will crush the 20% APR that HBD offers. In realty you only need to replace around 10% APR since hive combined gives you a solid 10% APR on staked hive.
The only negative to this is the massive 13 week lock up period.
I am not concerned about 13 week lock up, as I won't let go of the original HP I already had. That would allow me to withdraw needed amount faster than 13 weeks.
It's a risk, true. But eventually with a bull market you'll gain what you'll lose even if the market stays volatile and sideways for a few months, you'll most likely win with hive in 12 months time or so. Hive eventually wins but HBD probably only offers short term stability and the 20% APR is small to what hive will give.
I agree, that is the plan.
I think most of us have had more losses than gain in the crypto world. I bought Doge at its ATH and since then the price were on the way to dip. Though recently there was a little increase but it was much lesser than the price I bought Dige for. Any ways.....
I agree to the point about HP. HP makes us more influential on the Chain and gives us the position of active participation.
Good luck for your financial decisions 👍
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I had the same approach and have been tempted to convert my HBD to Hive although Im not good at telling where price is going neither want to learn, I think if I start doing so I would start to jump back and forward something that could drastically could screw up my progress so I have decided to add more liquidity to my account and leave my HBD alone, if Im not swaping now then probably never will and let it grow eventually adding more HBD all the way during bull market to then buy Hive on next bear market, Im just not good at price prediction not sure how to describe it, same reason I havent bought LEO with liquidity just earn it with delegation and threading
Nobody is really good with price predictions. We can only give our best guess. Luckily for long term investments like Hive or bitcoin, things work out just fine.
Investing in HBD is very profitable, you get a lot of power up, it's really a lot. You are a successful hiver
Thank you.
Wow.
That's a big move. I think you have a good reason to power up.
You can consider to delegate some HP to leovoter and get 12% APR. It likes a compound machine - you still may get more HBD when HIVE price goes up while enjoying 12% APR from HP 🤑
I am not completely against delegation and/or earning by delegation. However, I strongly believe more people controlling and using their own stakes, better the decentralization gets. At this point I am not planning to delegate any HP for returns. It is still an option, if I am no longer able to dedicate time for Hive.
Although both hive and hbd are great way to invest. But still we all have different things in our mind based on the our investment strategy and goals. Some of us are more concern about hp and ans some are more into hbd. But I think this is a good time to collect more hp or hive as possible. Soon hive is gonna pump and that is going to be the best time to convert some hive to hbd and earn a good apr on top of that. .
Not sure when hive is gonna moon but sooner or later the day will come, let's hope the day will come soon ✌️🍀
You are absolutely right, everybody has different points of view regarding investments and that's what makes markets interesting. I believe individually developed strategies work better than the ones copied from others. There is something about gut feeling. You right again, sooner or later Hive will perform. Otherwise what are we doing here?
The ratio of 90:10 with hive and HBD is good. Although I don't maintain as such because I try to grow my HP as much as possible but may be down the line I can try doing this
It doesn't have to be exactly 90/10. These numbers can be anything. The point is to have some kinda plan. Or maybe no plan is better. That works too. For a very long time I haven't even considered these options.
I also changed my strategy after reaching 1000 HBD. I just save the HBD interest payout and convert the rest of HBD to HIVE then Power Up ;)
Nice!
My plan is just the other way around. To wait when Hive reaches 1 dollar then turn it into hbd. Let's see who is right:)
It is the same strategy. That would be the next step. I probably wouldn't even wait until it gets to $1.
Hmm personally i prefer to keep 50/50 or more hbd, hbd has 20% guaranteed, hive like 2/3% and depends on price fluctuation, its more a gamble
If you curate actively, you'll earn about 7%-8% apr on your hive power, together with the increase of 2%-3%, you'll get an apr of about 10% on your hive power ;D
Still lower than 20% of something with higher value 😜
To each his own strategy ofcourse :)
Only the future will tell what the best one used to be ^^
Just wanted to inform you 🙃
I don't think comparing APR of core coin and a stable coin would be helpful. Ultimately, it has to do with price appreciation. If Hive is not successful in growing its value, 20% APR for HBD won't last long. They both rely on each others success.
Of course, they are connected and linked
That works too. Any numbers would work. I guess that would differ for everybody.
Makes sense, congrats to the big power up
Thank you!
When I put my Hive in saving I don't really see any APR function on it, but putting hbd generate something. I think I will prefer some hbd reserve in saving.
Liquid Hive is not a good savings asset. It is better when used as Hive Power.
That is true, thanks
What a nice write up.
Congratulations
Thank you.
Everything is a risk, but you do make some valid points.
I choose to have a safe amount as HBD, just in case something goes wrong (keeping it as an emergency fund) and all the rest is going to my Hive Power.
I am thinking of some moves of buying more HP soon, hopefully it will be possible.
Thanks again for letting us know of your strategy and thoughts about it.
Yes, there are risk in everything. Originally I was saving HBD for a similar purpose. But then there was no longer need to use HBD as Savings. Now it has become an investment/trading instrument. Thank you!
It’s hard one for me I tend to lean towards hp as I like to delegate my hive power to earn second layer tokens and sometimes that can be highly rewarding too as can hbd
Why not use HP yourself, and find other ways to earn layer 2 tokens?
I feel I struggle with my post writing and when I do write posts I feel like I’m not earning much of a reward.
Yeah.. actually I did the same quite a while ago and what I've experienced is that if I should have kept HBD in Savings I would be better instead of having that converted to Hive. There could be an upside if Hive truly lifts off, but for me it wasn't a productive move.
It has been a very long time since Hive's price made any significant moves. That is one of the reasons, I think this was a good time. Consider this a continuation of your experiment.
Even if Hive doesn't perform on its own, the upcoming alt season wave shouldn't leave Hive out. Me hoping. Regardless what happens, HP has always been the main goal.
While it's important to be cautious and mindful of market trends, investing always carries risks, and it's wise to assess your own risk tolerance before making any decisions.
Your perspective on the optimal amount of HP to hold and your willingness to take calculated risks are valid considerations. Ultimately, it's essential to stay informed, diversify your portfolio, and make decisions that align with your financial goals and circumstances.
As for predicting when Hive will moon, the future of cryptocurrency markets is inherently uncertain, so it's best to approach such predictions with caution.
Or we could not take things too seriously and play it like a game. Win or lose, it will be a fun journey.
When the price of HIVE reaches $0.60, you will simply return your HBD and you will have the same amount of HIVE left.
I may end up doing so at $0.47. I got used to having HBD, now it is different. If that happens, the plan would have worked. Hive would have earned more than what HBD offers as APR for savings.
This is very important and valuable information! Best of all, it's free, so I feel fortunate to be able to learn a little more about the cryptoeconomy of Hive..... Best regards family, God bless you ♥
Nice! A big PowerUp! Some time ago I decided to set Hive Power to 100 as rewards for my posts. My goal is to grow as quickly as possible and I am satisfied with the progress made in recent months. Congratulations!
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 44/54) Liquid rewards.
Thank you!
You did a super power up!
I have always followed the same strategy as you but my HBD->HIVE conversion threshold is in the $0.3-$0.35 range and that is why I have already done many conversions so far and today I will do another one :)
My focus has always been more on HPs because even though the APR is lower than HBDs they have many more use cases especially for those who are active and interacting on Hive and Hive is my favorite blockchain project.
@tipu curate
I did think about conversion too. But first I had to try the internal market. It worked just fine. Although my order wasn't filled right away, after tweaking the buy price I was able to buy Hive needed.
You are right HP has more use cases. It is definitely a better long term investment.
Not always an easy task to get investment right. We are currently witnessing market uncertainties this days. Best wishes friend
Honestly, I don't know which to tilt to. But I think having both Hive at stake and some amount of liquid HBD for momentary spending is okay.
Nice plan, didn't understand a little part on the HBD savings, does it mean if I save a 100HBD, I will get a 20HBD interest annually.
As for the maximum hive power you think a user should have, to be quite honest a 200HP will do for me, it will give me liberty to post at least twice a day followed up with 40 comment daily, that's enough to be active for me, I will prefer to carryout other hive investments.
Yes, 100 HBD in Savings would earn 20 HBD in a year. You can even claim portion every 30 days and keep compounding. APR may change in the future depending what the consensus witnesses do.
Higher HP should always be a goal in Hive network. Hive keeps getting more interesting as HP grows.
Thanks a lot friend, if my HP can interact with others effectively isn't that considered enough
That’s indeed the biggest Power up I heard of here on Hive! Respect! And I agree with you that HIVE will probably have a better return/APR than the 20% HBD is giving currently. My bear scenario for this bullrun is a $1-2 Hive, Bull case would be a new ATH of around $4-5. That is an upside from current price level of 200% minimum, doubt that we cannot reach a $1 HIVE. That would be 10x APR of what you would get with HBD.
So I would say: good decision and may HIVE rise to a new ATH. 🤞🏻
I agree, thank you.
I got your logic. I wonder why I did not see that.
I can wait even more than a year or two.
Yes, that's true!
But you already have 140k.
I will follow your strategy. I am close to that 90/10 ratio now. However, I need to wait 9 days more: 6 days so I can get that close to 7 HBD as my 20% APR plus a 3-day waiting period to withdraw HBD. I just wish that HIVE would stay at its current price or would dive even lower. That would be a great bargain for me. If this happens, I think in 10 days, I can be a Dolphin. Thanks!
When I had 60k Hive, I thought that was enough. Then as it kept growing, my goal became 100k HP. Current HP is temporary. I will move back to HBD at some point.
My point was that as HP keeps getting more widely distributed, it gets more decentralized and stronger. If Hive were to get tens of millions of participants, stakeholders would consider selling their stakes at decent prices, and having 100k+ HP would be rare.
Thanks for the clarification. I don't need to wait 6 days to withdraw my HBD to get the 6.428 HBD interest. In 3 days, I can hit my Dolphin goal. Thanks!
Congrats!
I just want to clarify. Your official position as the lead cheerleader for 20% interest on HBD is that people should stack HBD when the price of HIVE is high and to convert it to HIVE when the price is low. You mentioned $0.20 as a great dumping signal.
You had over 1111 upvotes on this post. So, your words idolized.
I would like to run a simple. This scenario is not too far off the mark.
So, lets say that users sank $1,000,000 of HIVE into HBD when the price was over $0.40. This is 2.5 million in HIVE.
Lets say they held this million HIVE for a year and got the luscious 20%. (The interest is actually higher because it is compounded every 30 days. The $1 million in debt became $1.2 million.)
There is a shock that causes BTC to drop dramatically. HIVE follows suit and drops to your stated trigger value.
These users who adore you then convert their $1.2 million in HBD to HIVE at 0.2. 1.2 million HBD would generated 6 million HIVE.
So, the 2.5 million HIVE people turned into HBD generates 6 million HIVE when the market is weak.
Who is going to buy this HIVE.
Ugly idiots like me who kept most of their funds in HIVE just lost half of their savings. Ugly people who aren't swarmed with upvotes every don't like throwing good money after bad.
There's a large number of fair weather users who only use HIVE when HIVE is high. They won't buy it.
The people who are smarting from the drop in BTC don't have spare cash to buy HIVE.
There is more than $1 million HBD in existence. There's 11 million. Bankers would still see a huge debt to equity ratio and balk at investing in HIVE.
The idiots who pinned their hopes on building applications to interface with HIVE-Engine can do nothing. Their hopes were already shattered as the high interest on HBD caused a collapse in HE.
The strategy that you ... THE LEAD CHEERLEADER FOR UNSOUND FISCAL POLICY ... advocates ends up dumping millions upon millions in HIVE when the market weakens.
Yes, your strategy is so clever as it helps you at a personal level. I despise the 20% interest on HBD because, in every simulation that I run, the insane interest on HBD ends up crashing HIVE and HIVE Engine ... not that there is much left in HE.
Lol, you are either joking or genuinely upset at something. I don't see a reason you should be angry at me though. You mentioned several things, let me address them.
Number of votes do not necessarily represent number of people who read this post or follow my content. Most of them are auto-votes and curation trail votes. I am not an influencer or somebody with influence that would convince people one way or the other.
None of my content is financial advise, and taking so would be big mistake. My thought is, nobody should take any investment advice from anybody. Because I don't know what I am doing half of the time. I only express my opinions in an open network. I do make this clear in this post as well.
I do believe 20% APR for HBD is a great feature for Hive and beneficial for Hive. But that is just one opinion. There are many opinions within the network. Many may share your views as well. I am not a witness or large stakeholder and I have no influence if Hive does or doesn't have any APR for HBD or any monetary policies. But yes, I do think there are more pros for 20% APR than cons. This topic has been debated many times already.
Lastly, investing in HP, Hive or HBD is open for anybody. Nobody is forced to do anything. We make choices, some work, some don't. I can't see how HBD interest crashes Hive or HE. I know Hive subsidizes HBD interests, just like HP holders subsidize all rewards. I always had more HP than HBD. If HBD crashes Hive then my HP goes to zero too (highly unlikely). Why would I sabotage my own interests?
I was angry because your post openly advocated an investment strategy that is damaging to HIVE. You advocated that people dump their HBD when HIVE is at a low.
But I want to answer you post.
You have one of the most influential accounts on HIVE ... especially in regards to HBD.
You have influence but have never thought through the consequences of your influence.
I will answer you comments but out of order:
HBD means HIVE Backed Interest. The value of HBD is structurally backed HIVE. When the witnesses raised the interest of HBD to 20%, they forced a high interest loan onto the HIVE community.
The interest changed the dynamics of everything in the HIVE-O_sphere.
The same thing happens in politics when agents in the government issue a bond. The government is forcing a debt onto the community. The same thing happens with deficit spending. The government forces debt onto the nation.
The Federal Reserve is built around an interest scheme and fractional reserve lending.
The Federal Reserve forces debt into our communities.
The hive witnesses are doing the exact same thing with the HBD interest. They are using systematic backing of HBD by HIVE to force debt into HIVE.
The people who are pushing debt on our society all plead innocent. They all say: I did not consider the consequences of my actions; therefore I am innocent.
The 20% interest was forced upon the community and has had terrible consequences.
It is interesting how opinions are proven or dis-proven over time. If there was a great benefit to 20% HBD interest, we would have seen it by now.
What we have seen is a steady drop in the price of HIVE since the decision.
You were correct in saying that people have freedom. They have the freedom to leave HIVE.
The people who avoid investing in debt-ridden entities left HIVE. We've seen thousands upon thousands of users flee.
I had opinions. My opinions seem to be turning into fact.
My opinion was that the 20% interest would crash HIVE-Engine. The HE tribes saw about a 90% drop in their coin value.
Development on HIVE Engine is at a stand still. The developers lost money and left.
My opinion was that the high interest would drive away users and investors. We have lost a large number of investors and users. My opinion was that the the interest on HBD would lower the price of HIVE. My opinion was that the lowering in the price of HIVE would actually hurt HBD. the HBD marcap peaked at $14 and has dropped to $11.
I hope that you wake up someday and realize that forcing debt on the community is a bad thing. The $34 trillion in US debt shows that people never do.
I respect your opinions but strongly disagree. That's the beauty of decentralized open systems. We can disagree, discuss, and still continue to coexist and maybe even collaborate in the same network for the same goal.
You are correct Hive network pays for the HBD interests. Just like Hive network pays for various rewards like content rewards, witness rewards, DHF payments, etc. This money doesn't appear out of thin air. It does, but those who pay for indirectly are Hive stakeholders. Hive stakeholders dilute their stakes to let Hive pay all these rewards and interest payments. Those who would lose most if things don't go right are the Hive stakeholders. More Hive Power you have, more you lose, more at risk of losing value.
Many top witnesses are also large Hive stakeholders. All Hive stakeholders vote consensus witnesses in. If any decision made by witnesses, any direction taken within the network has negative impact on the network and individual assets, Hive stake holders would lose the most. The DPOS allows Hive stakeholders to make these decisions in a decentralized manner. They have made their decisions by their witness votes, developments, discussions, etc. They seem to be happy they way things are. So no, no debt is forced into anybody. If that's how majority felt, they would have made proper changes.
I hope this explains it. I didn't write the post to recommend any strategy, but rather for transparency purposes of what I have been doing and done. Blockchain is the witness.
Hive is the plan, while there is a lot of upside. Once it peaks the best plan is to convert it back to HBD to store value through the bear market.
Hive is a on of a kind asset that ensures one is rewarded in everyone. With a bonus from all other side coins.
I don’t save much HBD and I even have some unclaimed HBD rewards. I prefer to save in HBD and just power up all I have left. That’s what I mostly do…
This looks like the final chance to position one’s self for ultimate glory on this block chain. Before the final bounce that will take us higher and higher. Hive power is king
Fair play, that's a hefty power up. You're less risk averse than I am, I've got enough Hive, happy to just let it accumulate slowly, and keep stacking the HBDs myself.
Although if I ever have more than $10K in the later, that's sounding like a silly amount to have in stables.
Hive probably will go over $1 at some point!
I started trading again recently. Then thought, here some cash just sitting. Figured, why not try something different with. It will be interesting to see how alts will move after bitcoin breaks $100k. It has to happen sooner or later.
I personally think it's likely but there's no necessity! Alts might well do nothing for ever!
Congratulations on your power up. Your labour has indeed been rewarded. Continue making amazing content
Accumulation of a lifetime. Chance to make bank for every Hiver is now!!!
Sweet power up. I am curious to know how long you kept that HBD. I am inspired and my grind starts now
That was such a big and bold move. Maybe somewhere in the future, I'd be able to make such a move.
Yes this is using your common sense and why I have no HBD until the time is right and it is definitely not now. Logic tells you there is more upside holding Hive and holding HBD will actually cost you over the next 18 months. Imagine chasing 20% APR when you could be getting more than 1000% by holding Hive.
100% agree. That also is the APR I seek. I am not sure I can wait for 1000% though.
I am utilizing the same strategy.
At the moment I put everything in HivePower. Whenever Hive reaches the price of $1, I'll start to power down, convert to hbd and put them in savings. As it takes several weeks, I'll kind of dca into hbd to spread the fluctuations and I hope my average will be above $1 but even if it's a bit below, I would still call it a win! :D
Good luck!
It has been a very long time since Hive was above $1. That would be a big milestone. It seems far away now. But when it happens, it may also seem as if we knew all along.
I joined Hive at its latest peek, I am quite confident we'll hit atleast $1 once again. No idea when though ^^
I guess it could go higher once again as well, like $2 or who knows even higher. But I rather start converting at $1 and banking some gains instead than missing it.
13weeks of unstaking is quite long and a lot can happen..
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What a good and impactful piece. There are a lot of lessons to learn from you. Thank you.
Having HBD for immediate needs is good for those of us who still harvest what is dropping to fuel our daily living.
This system is very good and if we invest wisely now then within next few months we will be able to get good profit and if our HP is high then this platform will be profitable. The above work can also be done well.
I think when hive has a pump next it may be a good idea to keep some HBD in liquid form as well as in savings but also keep assets outside of hive as there are easily stable coin investments that earn what the 20% is like stargate, radient finance etc where you deposit say usdc and earn usdc, rdnt and arb or deposit usdc and earn stg which all can be sold for more of what ever you want and is much more stable than HBD which can de peg and i dont consider it the most stable but it is a good holding to have in general as part of a portfolio but I know some people who have tons of it for retirement and that seems a bit dangerous to me all that has to happen is for HIVE to fail which is a possibility as with any newer tech like crypto and all that. I would go with diversity over many of the protocals out there as there are some that are much better than HIVE for ROI and in my opinion less risky.
The difference between investing and gambling is money management and risk management.
One should avoid losing money, because money is the base for investing. If you loose too much, there is nothing left for investing.
When investing there should be a good risk/reward ratio. If a trade goes in the wrong direction, one should have a stop trigger to get out of the trade.
If there is still enough money to invest, there will be a new opportunity.
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