A few days ago, I announced that I was working on a Python prediction model to tackle the Premier League. After a lot of coding, debugging, and fine-tuning (we are currently on Version 72!), the "Market Master" engine is finally ready for its first live test.

This isn't just looking at who won the last game. The model combines:

• Historical Data & Form: Using a weighted decay (recent games matter more).
• Market Implied Goals: Reverse-engineering what the bookmakers expect to find value gaps.
• Dixon-Coles Matrix: A complex mathematical model to calculate the probability of every exact score.

Here are the results for Matchweek 13. Let's see if the code can beat the bookies! 🤞

🧠 The Model's Full Analysis

Before we look at the betting slips, here is the raw output from the model for every match this weekend.

You can see the calculated Expected Goals (xG) and the probabilities the model assigned to the outcomes.

Match	xG	1X2	O/U	BTS	CS	Odds (H/D/A)
Brentford (13) vs Burnley (19)	2.72-0.77	Home (67%)	Over (60%)	Yes (51%)	2-1	1.45/4.5/7.0
Man City (3) vs Leeds (18)	3.57-0.46	Home (82%)	Over (67%)	No (36%)	3-0	1.22/6.5/12.0
Sunderland (7) vs Bournemouth (8)	1.71-1.34	Home (34%)	Over (52%)	Yes (62%)	2-1	3.2/3.3/2.3
Everton (11) vs Newcastle (14)	1.48-1.33	Home (39%)	Under (50%)	Yes (58%)	2-1	2.8/3.25/2.63
Tottenham (9) vs Fulham (15)	2.00-1.18	Home (50%)	Over (54%)	Yes (61%)	2-1	2.2/3.3/3.3
Crystal Palace (5) vs Man United (10)	1.85-1.28	Home (47%)	Over (57%)	Yes (62%)	2-1	2.3/3.4/3.1
Aston Villa (4) vs Wolves (20)	2.48-0.78	Home (68%)	Over (57%)	Yes (50%)	2-1	1.5/4.33/6.5
Nott'm Forest (16) vs Brighton (6)	1.56-1.44	Draw (36%)	Over (53%)	Yes (62%)	2-2	2.75/3.3/2.63
West Ham (17) vs Liverpool (12)	1.24-2.30	Away (55%)	Over (65%)	Yes (65%)	1-2	4.33/4.33/1.67
Chelsea (2) vs Arsenal (1)	1.27-1.55	Away (41%)	Over (51%)	Yes (58%)	1-2	3.4/3.3/2.2

🔎 Key Insights

• The Big Clash: In the top-of-the-table clash between Chelsea (2nd) and Arsenal (1st), the model is tipping the Gunners to take the win away from home (41% probability) in a tight 1-2 game.
• One-Sided Affair: The model is extremely confident in Man City destroying Leeds. With a projected xG of 3.57 for City vs 0.46 for Leeds, this is the banker of the week.
• Upset Alert: Keep an eye on Crystal Palace vs Man United. The model actually favors Palace at home (47%) against a struggling United side, predicting a 2-1 win for the Eagles.

🎟️ The Selected Tickets

Based on the data above, the script automatically generated three optimized betting slips. We use a specific strategy here: Anchors (safe bets) mixed with Value Builders and one Booster (high odds).

1. The 1X2 Portfolio (Match Winner)
This ticket mixes high probability home wins with two interesting value picks.

• Aston Villa and Brentford are our "Anchors" this week. The model sees them as very safe home wins.
• We are taking a risk with Tottenham and Crystal Palace. The odds are high (> 2.20), but the model calculates positive value here.
• Chelsea vs Arsenal: As mentioned, backing the away win for Arsenal is the boldest move on this slip.

1X2 | Ante: €2.20 | Max payout: €36.73

Match	Pick	Prob	Odd
Aston Villa (4) vs Wolves (20)	Home	68%	1.50
Brentford (13) vs Burnley (19)	Home	67%	1.46
West Ham (17) vs Liverpool (12)	Away	55%	1.73
Tottenham (9) vs Fulham (15)	Home	50%	2.26
Crystal Palace (5) vs Man United (10)	Home	47%	2.24
Chelsea (2) vs Arsenal (1)	Away	41%	2.20

2. The O/U Portfolio (Goals)
The "Goal Line" calculation is usually the strongest part of the Python script. It looks for matches where the bookmaker underestimates the offensive strength.

• Man City vs Leeds is the main Over pick. The model expects nearly 4 goals in this match alone.
• Interestingly, the only Under selected is Everton vs Newcastle. The model predicts a tight, tactical battle there.

O/U | Ante: €2.20 | Max: €25.39

Match	Pick	Prob	Odd
Man City (3) vs Leeds (18)	Over	67%	1.53
West Ham (17) vs Liverpool (12)	Over	65%	1.55
Brentford (13) vs Burnley (19)	Over	60%	1.78
Everton (11) vs Newcastle (14)	Under	50%	1.74
Crystal Palace (5) vs Man United (10)	Over	57%	1.82
Aston Villa (4) vs Wolves (20)	Over	57%	1.99

3. The "Yankee" (Correct Score)
This is the lottery ticket. We play this as a Yankee system (11 bets: 6 doubles, 4 trebles, 1 four-fold). We only need 2 correct scores to make a profit.
Correct Score | Ante: €1.10 | Max: €687.06

Match	Pick	Prob	Odd
Man City (3) vs Leeds (18)	3-0	14%	7.50
Tottenham (9) vs Fulham (15)	2-1	10%	8.50
West Ham (17) vs Liverpool (12)	1-2	10%	8.50
Crystal Palace (5) vs Man United (10)	2-1	10%	8.00

🧠 The Strategy: How we play these tickets

This algorithm doesn't just spit out random predictions; it builds a balanced portfolio designed to survive the variance of the Premier League. We don't put everything on a single "all-or-nothing" accumulator. Instead, we use System Betting.

1️⃣ The "Safety Net" Accumulators (1X2 & O/U)
For the Match Winner (1X2) and Goals (O/U) tickets, the model selects 6 matches. Instead of playing a standard 6-fold parlay (where one wrong pick kills the entire bet), we play a System 4/5/6.

Structure: We place bets on all possible 4-folds, 5-folds, and the full 6-fold.

Total Lines: 22 individual bets per ticket.

The Goal: If 4 out of 6 predictions are correct, we usually get our stake back. If 5 or 6 are correct, the profit multiplies rapidly.

Cost: With a micro-stake of €0.10 per line, the total ticket costs €2.20.

2️⃣ The "Yankee" (Correct Score)
Predicting the exact score is the hardest part of betting, but it offers the highest odds (usually 6.00+). For the top 4 Correct Score predictions, we play a Yankee System.

Structure: 11 bets on 4 selections (6 Doubles, 4 Trebles, 1 Four-fold).

The Goal: We don't need to get all 4 right. Hitting just 2 out of 4 exact scores usually guarantees a profit of 200% to 300% because of the high odds.

Cost: With a stake of €0.10 per line, the total ticket costs €1.10.

Total Investment per Matchweek: €5.50 (Low stakes, high data). This strategy ensures that one freak result (like Liverpool losing at home) doesn't ruin the entire weekend.

Coding partner
Here is a professional and responsible disclaimer you can add to the bottom of your Hive post. It covers the financial risks and clarifies that this is an experimental project.

⚠️ Disclaimer & Risk Warning

This post is for entertainment and educational purposes only. The predictions listed above are generated by an experimental Python algorithm ("Market Master V73") currently in its testing phase. While the model uses advanced statistical data (Poisson distribution, xG analysis, and market implied probabilities), sports betting always carries a risk of loss.

• No Guarantees: Past performance (simulated or real) is not indicative of future results.
• Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Never follow these tips blindly. Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
• Financial Risk: Only bet money you can afford to lose. The stakes mentioned in this post (€0.10 per line) are low for testing purposes.
• 18+ Only: Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from local support organizations.

I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.

Cheers,
Peter