⚽ Betting Against the Odds: My $5.50 Experiment to Beat the Bookie's
I've been thinking about getting back into sports betting, but this time, I’m locking in on one area: Correct Scores.
This evening's qualifiers, kicking off at 20:45 local time, presented the perfect opportunity for a fun test run before I figure out my strategy for the regular league competitions.
Of course, I don't expect a profit; this is pure fun and keeps me busy during the dark evenings we are facing.
I would even be surprised if we hit a single correct double!
The goal?
To engineer a structure that maximized the correct score odds while completely avoiding the bookmaker's payout cap!
The Strategy: High Odds, High ConsensusCorrect Score betting offers huge potential, as the odds rarely drop below $6.00$. I focused on six matches and used a consensus-driven approach, cross-referencing predictions from various data sources (like PredictZ, Vitibet, etc.) to find the most likely high-odds scores.
Our Final Six Score Picks:
| Match | Final Score Pick |
|---|---|
| content1 | content2 |
| SCOTLAND vs. DENMARK | 1 - 1 |
| SWEDEN vs. SLOVENIA | 2 - 0 |
| KOSOVO vs. SWITZERLAND | 0 - 2 |
| BELARUS vs. GREECE | 0 - 2 |
| WALES vs. N. MACEDONIA | 2 - 1 |
| BULGARIA vs. GEORGIA | Varies (2-1, 1-2, 0-2) |
The Problem & The Solution
If I had simply placed one 6-game accumulator, the total odds would have been over $400,000.0$! Unfortunately, most bookies cap their payouts at odds like $10,000.0$.
This meant all the value of that mega-bet would be lost.
The solution was to break the 6 selections into five separate 4-game accumulator tickets. This cost €5.50 and ensured no single ticket's 4-fold payout exceeded the cap.
Crucially, for each of the five tickets, we bet on ALL accumulator combinations: the 2-folds (Doubles), the 3-folds (Trebles), and the 4-fold.
This means 11 bets per ticket, each at €0.10!🧾 The Five Tickets Covering 55 LinesHere is the final structure, showing the combinations chosen to maximize the returns on a win:
| Ticket # | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Potential Payout (4-Fold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCO 1-1 | Bul 2-1 | SWE 2-0 | KOS 0-2 | $900.23 |
| 2 | Bel 0-2 | SWE 2-0 | WAL 2-1 | KOS 0-2 | $613.95 |
| 3 | WAL 2-1 | Bul 0-2 | KOS 0-2 | Bel 0-2 | $666.78 |
| 4 | SWE 2-0 | KOS 0-2 | WAL 2-1 | Bul 1-2 | $669.99 |
| 5 | SWE 2-0 | KOS 0-2 | WAL 2-1 | Bel 0-2 | $613.95 |
The Potential Payday
The beauty of the 2-folds and 3-folds is that even if we only hit three scores on a ticket, we still generate a massive return from the four Trebles and three Doubles. The maximum uncapped payout for hitting all four scores on Ticket 1 is over €900.00!
The games are scheduled to kick off shortly! I will be tracking the live scores and will post an update later tonight detailing how this $5.50$ experiment turns out.
If this test goes well, I'll be sharing how I plan to apply the correct score only strategy to regular league betting soon. I want to play the full six-fold accumulator (the 'Heinz' bet) next time, so I need to find a bookie who supports high odds with low bets to avoid splitting up my tickets!
Wish me luck!
Posted Using INLEO
I love the mixed high odds mixed with a parlay. I'll be keeping a eye on this too see how it goes
Thanks.
I saw a guy post the other day and he was betting on which side of the pitch a score would come from. So he was basically saying left center or right and if you know the team, you can have a pretty good idea of where they usually score from based on players and plays. I tried to do a bit of it, but betting app didn't offer that as an option. Good luck to you!
Luck is what we do need. Correct score betting is the thoughest there is.
For American Football it is near to impossible.
The problem with the bets you are describing are probably the odds. Also there are way too many betting markets and some just ask to be used by the betting mafia, like yellow cards, first card, first throw-in, etc...
This is ruining the betting markets.
I would imagine you are probably only going to get something like 3 to 1 if that on a bet as simple as the one I mentioned. Still though, those seem to be the bets that people actually make money on when used correctly. You might see some guy that hit big on a crazy parlay, but the majority of people who make real money betting are doing those lower odds bets. It seems like anyway.
We both know that parlays are sucker bets. The bookies live those. The chanxe of winning them is minimal, so more or less free money for them. And when one hits the jackpot that is the best advertising they could have.
But I still rather put my koney into this then a lottery!
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Haha yeah, that is very true! I am just about out of money in my accounts, so I am not sure I am going to bother topping it up!
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BEER.Good luck on the betting experiment, at worst you'll get some good fun out of it.
Indeed. I know parlays and for sure these are sucker bets.