$HIVE & $BTC Technical Analysis - 08.06.2025

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I've been waiting for this day, to see where $HIVE is compared to last week and $BTC as well, so let's get to it, see what we can expect next week.

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One week passed since the monthly open, so there's not much to conclude here, till the candle closes. So far we have a doji, which means indecision and price is still inside the bullish gap that has been holding price hostage for ages. For 1522 days to be precise. What I wrote last week about what levels to watch is still valid, so you can check it here. We'll know more once the monthly candle is closed.

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On the weekly time frame, price is slightly below mid range, if I count my dealing range from $0.1774 to $0.3006 and it is delivering from a bearish OB, confirmed last week, by the candle closing below $0.2429. The current candle is closing in around 12 hours, so anything can happen, but so far we have a bullish candle with a very small body.

In case the current candle closes without sweeping liquidity below $0.2204, this level will be confirmed as swing low, but again, only after the current candle close and can become a target in case of weakness. For bullish continuation, price needs to close above $0.2662, in which case the next liquidity pool is at $0.2844.

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On the daily time frame, price is just about to touch mid-range. I'm a bit undecided here, whether to post such a detailed chart, because it can be confusing, but on the other hand, I'd like to give you all the levels to watch, so I decided to post this version, instead of a simplified one. Is this the right thing to do? Dunno, time will tell, or someone will let me know it's confusing. Anyway, let's see what we can expect here.

In case of weakness and a mid-range rejection, the levels to watch are
$0.2204, which can be considered as relative equal low as there's a low close to it at $0.2227, and $0.2166. In case we don't get a reversal there the weakness continues, then sweeping the lows at $0.1848 and $0.1775 is possible. We have a bullish gap there, which has been defending price so far, so I hope it does its job in case price revisits that level.

For bullish continuation, price needs to sweep liquidity above $0.2476, close above the gap and hold $0.2538, then $0.2699, $0.2784 and $0.2844. These levels are inside a bearish gap, which has already been rebalanced, price has gone above the gap twice already, but has never managed to close above it. In case price manages to close above it and hold, the next level to watch is the dealing range high at $0.3006.

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On a more granular scale, the h4 chart looks good in my eyes. Price is at mid-range, but on its way up, just printed a lower high, retested the bullish FVG, which held price nicely. The sell side of the curve (the leg up) looks really good, apart from one bearish gap, there's not much to stop price.

Levels to watch at the upside are the swing high at $0.2476 and if the bearish gap does not stop price, then $0.2699.

In case price gets rejected here, I'm looking at $0.2333 and if we don't get a bounce there, then next could be $0.2306, $0.2227 and $0.2204.

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$BTC has an interesting daily chart. Last week, price swept the lows I mentioned in my previous post, at $102,000, $101,333 and $100,686 and created a swing low at $100,350, which is our dealing range low now.

At the time of writing, price is slightly below mid-range and about to confirm a bullish order block (OB), IF price manages close above $100,827 and hold. We have a bearish gap above the mentioned level, which has been already rebalanced, but price couldn't close above it.

For bullish continuation, price needs to close above and hold $100,718, in which case $110,700 could be next and ATH after that.

In case of rejection here, we could retest the swing low at $100,350.

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Big week next week, regarding the economic calendar. We have 3 red folder days and important data coming in on Wednesday and Thursday, but with the current evens on Geo-political level and an US president who likes to shock the world, you never know.

Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.

As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.

All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.

Come trade with me on Bybit.

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10 comments
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In my opinion, there is nothing happening in the crypto market that could be called a breakthrough or a small revolution. Most people are disappointed, they expected profits but are suffering big losses. There is no new blood, it just has nowhere to come from. A global event must occur for everything to move from a dead point. But what it will be and when, we can only guess. I would like to see useful applications appear on Hive during this time!

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I respect your opinion and disagree with it as well.

If you look back where things were 3 - 4 years ago, you can see the progress, unless you don't want to. Today we have one country that has BTC as national currency and several countries are working on regulating cryptocurrency and setting up a BTC reserve, we have a pro crypto president in the US, just to name a few of the changes in this regard.

Unfortunately fiat has been weaponized a long time and the recent wars have proven a currency that is not controlled by anyone is needed for many reasons.

If you look at the BTC chart, you can see, you could double, triple your investment if played right, but this is not enough it seems.

People are upset and disappointed because they want 100x right away if possible and jumping on every shitcoin hoping to be the chance of their life and lose it all. Cycles have changed, markets are not the same anymore, so one needs to adapt.

Having unrealistic expectations is everyone's right, but then when reality kicks in, it hurts. These are the people who don't realize the buying power of their national currency is half at best, compared to what it used to be 3 - 4 years ago and a lot of economies are close to collapsing but it seems to be normal for them.

There's plenty of fresh blood and it's coming, but it's not good to happen overnight. The smallest the country, the more chance for changing things quickly, but some countries are hopeless.

Some countries led by the same dictators for decades are in middle ages from economical and social point of view and instead of trying to lead the country in the right direction, they are heading back to the stone age, suppressing freedom, exercising excessive control and so on.

As about Hive, that's a different story for a different day. I don't agree with many things and see huge amounts wasted continuously, but it is what it is. We support the projects we believe on and don't support the others.

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I agree with everything you say, but it's all right if you have Bitcoin. But this is not applicable to altcoins, and almost everyone is planted in them now and new people will not come until those who are now suffering losses begin to make a profit. This is my vision of everything that has happened on the crypto market for the 8 years that I have been following it. The fact that everyone was deceived is logical, since everyone followed the previous scenario, but the market is insidious. I think those who have nerves of steel and have a vision of the further development of the situation will benefit from their investments in any case!
!BEER

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The problem with alts is that it is know you can make way more with alts, than with BTC or ETH for that matter, but that's only in theory. Most of the alts won't survive because there's no use case, no solid project behind them. Then comes manipulation at the highest level. Influencers are using their name/fame to create tokens and people are buying whatever 💩 shows up, hoping to make 100x asap. Scammers are launching tokens with famous people's name, for the obvious reasons.

Investing in alts is easy, but without knowing the project behind them, it's just sheer gambling and you may as well go to the casino and play roulette as there, at least you have 50% chance to win. Even knowing the project behind the token is not a guarantee for anything as the team still has to deliver and the road to success is really bumpy.

This is why I said you could double, triple or 5x your investment, if you play it right. There's also a rule about how much to invest in what, but hopium blinds people and it's going to get even worse as the trend is to try to catch the newest meme coin that gives you 100x in 2 days, but to catch one, you need to endlessly try and you may lose all your money before you find one, IF you find one.

Crypto's future is an unknown territory. BTC has made a new ATH, even 2 and everyone is waiting for ET to run, so then alt season can begin, but as I said, cycles are not like they used to be and this cycle is proof of that.

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Yes, I understand. And I don't believe in the scenario that ETH will start growing and then altcoins. I think that we will be surprised again and everything will not go according to the scenario. But you can try to unravel the manipulator's plan and act against the crowd. I never had a goal to get rich on the crypto market, it's just my hobby. But the more I observe, the more I come to the conclusion that everything that is not Bitcoin is garbage! Hive is an exception to this rule. Hive is more than a coin, it is a community. And I'm glad that I joined in January 2019. There is a long way ahead, but thanks to many wonderful people here, I am sure that we will grow and there will be many more of us!

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Everyone expected Bitcoin will be on bull run again after Covid times, but due to every one expecting it the bull run seems to be not happening.

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Cycles have changed, there are not the same anymore, but regardless, BTC is close to its ATH and possibly ready to make a new one but hoping for 150k and 200k is ... maybe not the best thing to do.

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Thanks for your time sharing TA on hive 👍 Should be interesting to see how inflation numbers look and affect the markets this week.

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