The Cramer Curse!

https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1742533546277769571

Obvious accusation is obvious.

I mean how could you not?

The negative correlation between what he says to what the market does is mathematically unavoidable. Yesterday he went on a rant that Bitcoin is unkillable, the next day we get one of the biggest and fastest dumps we've had in a while under suspect circumstances.

One thing he did say that I was pretty bullish on is that EFT approval will be a sell-the-news event, which is funny considering I've been saying exactly the opposite for however long it's been. ETF approval is the buy the rumor event while the ETFs launching is sell the news.

5 days ago I transferred all my liquid Hive into BTC.

Why did I do this? Because it was obvious that BTC was going to outperform no matter what happened.

1. The ETF gets approved and BTC moons.
2. The ETF gets denied and the entire market takes a shit.

Either way BTC outperforms the rest of the market.
This is still likely true now even after this road bump.
Still trying to get to 250k HP but waiting a few months.

Speaking of turning Hive into BTC.

I read today that VSC is sunsetting the testnet on that feature and will soon implement the mainnet solution. Pretty cool to think I could be making these plays on-chain without anyone's permission for essentially zero fees. A strong link to BTC reinforces the Hive network in a big way. A lack of liquidity is arguably our biggest hurdle to overcome in the short term.

Interesting timelines

It's good to reiterate that only the ARK application's final deadline is Jan 10. Every other deadline is in mid March. This means we are potentially getting 3 sell the news events all at once.

1. The halving event.
2. ETFs going live.
3. FED pivot

All three of these variables on their own could move the market in a big way. Just the chance that they could all happen within the same frame is absolutely absurd. What does that frame look like? Pretty much anytime between now and March.

Peaks that come before sell-the-news event often happen between 1 and 3 months before the thing actually happens. Only the halving is set in stone and remains unchanged. That is our anchor: April. The next few months are extremely pivotal. Unfortunately I'd say this market isn't worth even being considered for a trade unless BTC pulls at least an x2 into the $80k range. Considering the sidelined capital that will almost certainly require an ETF approval, which is annoying but whatever.

Inverse Cramer strong

So of course people love to freak out but BTC itself is still right where it was just a couple of days ago. Who cares? This is just day to day noise, and the only way to make real money on a move like this would have been with 10x leverage. Speaking of 10x leverage, everyone likes to talk trash to the people who go long in these situations, making jokes about liquidations.

However, this is a little bit ridiculous.

An x5 long is an extremely aggressive long that increases risk by 500%, and yet still would not have been liquidated by this dip. Who are these people talking to? I have to assume to themselves giving a pat on their own shoulder on any dip that comes around to flush extreme overleverage. Only degenerates gamble on x100 leverage at an obvious resistance point. Patting yourself on the back for outperforming a gambling addict seems a bit pedantic.

 @jimcramer posting key
 5JjR8huq4ewT5eCwmo3CZtfBF43i7vTdqRFgxiEXQqtAF1TZ6gg 

On Hive, the @jimcramer account is one that I own and have made public for anyone that wants to use it. I get a kick out of the fact that it ends with 'gg'. Good game.

Conclusion

Is this obvious market manipulation? Yes? Most likely? No matter what the answer is, it's difficult to ignore, that's for sure. Every day that ticks by it seems like those with their hands on the levers of power aren't even trying to hide their own corruption. End of the Roman Empire type vibes.

It's hard to imagine an ETF approval within a matter of days, so I tend to assume that all this will get pushed back to March with a bullshit (and potentially illegal) excuse given to ARK investments. Everyone knows the government is corrupt. Why would we make bets with our livelihood to the contrary? Seems like a silly move.

At the same time a flush in leverage is almost certainly what this market needed at this moment. I'd be lying if I told you I wasn't suppressing the urge to trade my HBD into BTC yesterday. Luckily I know better now than to submit to FOMO. Be ready to buy that 30% dip down to the $31k range should we be blessed by it.