NO-vember

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Glorious November has come and gone.

We got a non-standard green candle in the month of September (like 4%?).
October was very exciting with the 20% daily god candle.
October's primary gains came from that single day in the month.
Crypto is wild like that.
My prospects for November were quite high.
And November was green.
But it was simply not green enough, ser!
We started at $34.4k.
We ended at $$37.7k.
That's less than a 10% gain.

Unacceptable!

Many predictoooors in my situation would be like, "See, I told you November was gonna be a good month!" But I won't spoon-feed you that Nonsense. November was supposed to be something like a 30%-50% gain. At least 20%. 10% is nothing. 10% is the equivalent of a crabwalk within range.

But it's not a crabwalk... is it?

No, rather we've been stuck inside this ascending channel ever since the god candle in October. This feels like weakness for a couple of different reasons:

1. Volume is very low.
2. Bullish flag didn't continue pumping.
3. Slow moves up can we wiped out in a single day.
4. The 25-day simple moving average has been acting as support.

There are also several reasons to be bullish:

1. The spot EFT could get approved.
2. All the resistances ($35k/$36k/$37k/$38k) have proven to be vapor.
3. There's hardcore support at $31k and potential confirmation at $34k.
4. The MA(25) hasn't plateaued and a death-cross isn't in play yet.

$31k $31k $31k

All roads lead to $31k.

1. The year long channel from FTX to present signals $31k.
2. Previous resistance from before FTX (Luna/UST) is $31k.
3. The 100-day moving average is also at $31k.
4. The exponential trendline sits at $31k as well.

I'm actually kind of hoping BTC flash-crashes to $31k at this point because if it does I'm certainly opening up a hardcore long position. Unfortunately I had to liquidate my previous long position to pay off my credit card bill that I had been living off of for 4 months. It was getting dangerously close to being maxed out and the monthly payments on interest were extremely cringe and over $50 so I paid it off in one huge lump sum. Ouch.

Funny story:

That trading plan basically worked out exactly how I expected it to.
I got exactly what I wanted from that trade and executed it perfectly.
Who'd of thunk it?
Once in a blue moon.

So what is going on here?

The low volume channel we are in is extremely suspect, irregular, and seems to heavily imply that strong steady hands are accumulating Bitcoin in a very meticulous way not prone to any kind of FOMO. Of course when we look at the ETF situation it would make perfect sense who these market participants are: Blackrock themselves along with a handful of institutions looking to frontrun their own clients or perhaps just needing to seed the ETF.

Is the spot ETF narrative a liability?

A lot of people have it in their head that if the SEC pulls the same classic shenanigans of delay delay delay then it's safe to assume that applications will not get approved January 10th and we might even be headed for another round of lawsuits. While something like that does have a significant chance of happening I tend to disagree with the conclusions made. It's as if to say the reason for number going up right now could only possibly be based on the ETF speculation, and if that gets rug-pulled we are shit out of luck and headed for a massive crash. I'm not buying that narrative.

With volume as low as it is, it's painfully clear that there aren't a lot of sellers. On the flip side there also aren't a lot of buyers either. If there were: price would continue to spike up, entice more selling, and reach a more appropriate equilibrium on high volume. None of these things are happening. The market is largely stagnant even though it's a steadily ascending channel... which again is just super irregular and odd behavior from the free market.

So is it the chicken or the egg?

Most citizens of crypto believe that the ETF narrative is the only reason why number is going up right now. At this point I'm actually a bit willing to counter trade this position. Crypto doesn't need a reason to go up. It just does what it does and news is a catalyst at best for where the price was going to go anyway.

At this juncture I'm starting to believe that the ETF angle might actually be holding Bitcoin back. The market wants to buy the rumor and sell the news. In this case the 'rumor' would be applications being officially accepted by the SEC and the news would be these ETFs actually launching. Instead we find ourselves in the pure speculation range: maybe they get approved and maybe they don't. The market wants confirmation.

That means there are billions of dollars just sitting their on the sidelines waiting for the rumor to be activated one way or the other. If the rumor never existed in the first place it's probable that some percentage of that sidelined money would have already made its move because it had nothing to wait for. Food for thought.

Saylor

The upcoming bull market is going to be one for the record books. Why? Because entities that got absolutely wrecked and were counted as down and out are suddenly primed to rise from the ashes of the bear market like a phoenix. This even extends to sovereign nations at this point.

Remember how many paper handed plebs were 100% convinced that Microstrategy was going to get liquidated and El Salvador was going to be destitute due to their Bitcoin allocations? What happens when institutions realize the truth of this situation?

Hm, all we have to do is survive a single bear market and then we're in the green forever making exponentially more than any other asset in the history of mankind.

Many are going to pile in on this next run and they aren't going to care if they buy the top because they've already seen this history of how this actually goes down. Some of these institutions are willing to hunker down for 30 years on a bond. A 4 year crypto cycle is nothing to these people.

Conclusion

November price action was a flop and the market is being held hostage by the SEC once again. The most interesting outcome that could possibly happen is that this round of ETF applications gets declined for whatever reason (something like Coinbase being a centralized point of vulnerability) but the market not crashing (or a V-shaped event). I guess we'll just have to wait another five weeks to find out for sure, but even in the worst case scenario it looks like $31k will absolutely hold, and that's only a 20% dip from here. Peanuts in the grand scheme of a bull market primed to extend across the next 2 years. Buy the dip, as they say.