Market Watch: BOO!
Whelp that sucked!
The bear market nightmare continues!
I was actually going to make this post yesterday but thought I should wait in case we actually got a real dip. At 5:00 PM I saw the down market and decided to selloff the rest of the Mandala funds I was gambling on instead of liquidating. Around $1000. I go to dinner and come back to... this...
Ha so I guess that's an interesting silver lining but still being in the red just when it seemed like we were making a comeback is discouraging to say the least. This downward move marks the end of summer, and I think we should buckle up for more disappointment until the end of September, which is often a great time to buy back in. Liquidity in the markets is simply just not good in Q3, but Q4 is very often the best quarter. Considering we've had two shit Q4s in a row (2022 and even 2021 marked the end of the rally) I'm holding out hope that this next one will actually be quite good.
Of course the economy still flounders about so we'll see about that. They're now talking about downgrading the banks in terms of credit and trustworthiness. No surprises there but that's potentially bad for everyone. It creates a deflationary environment that sucks all the liquidity out of the markets and absolutely cripples risk-on assets like crypto. Very sad.
It's a bit sad we are this dependent on legacy systems at this point, but that's just how things operate eh? People won't rebuild infrastructure from the ground up unless it systemically fails. No one wants to be stuck doing that chore, and it often only gets done if it absolutely has to be done. If it's not broke don't fix it. Are the banks broken? Sort of? We know they aren't sustainable but obviously they still work in terms of being able to get a loan and whatnot.
We stand on the backs of giants.
That's just what humanity is good at honestly. We build and we build atop the build until it all comes falling down. As strange as it may sound it's often better to have a controlled demolition of these things, even if the responsible party benefits from it.
https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1692295710962483253
Elon Musk sells all $373M in Bitcoin.
I'm not sure how much this has to do with the current dip, but it certainly helps. Upon further review, it's unclear exactly when these funds were sold, only that it's been reported on today in the Wall Street Journal. Of course during a time such as this even the news of a big sale can cause FUD, especially as we close out the summer.
https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1692296550284738995
$769M in overleveraged longs liquidated.
Lots of greedy bulls were way way overleveraged at $29k after we bounced off that level multiple times. Of course this time they got absolutely wrecked by the bears, which is fully deserved. These people need to learn how to buy spot. Going 10x at $29k is just such a dipshit thing to do, but here we are. I blame crypto Twitter honestly :D. DEGENS I TELL YOU! Gotta love em.
Hunkering down
Like I said I sold out my Mandala position just in time so now I have enough runway to last me around 8 months of rent and food/bills. I fully paid off my credit card and they gave me an increased limit and my credit score is higher than it's ever been in my entire life (which is hilarious). I'm glad I capitulated and paid it off rather than doubling down like I normally would.
I'm still looking to increase my Bitcoin bag.
The amount of Bitcoin I have access to is pretty pathetic. Of course blogging on Hive is my job, so the only way for me to get more Bitcoin is to sell Hive into it, which is even more cringe. Luckily I have over 2000 HBD saved up so I'll either be paying bills with that sometime down the line or buying back into BTC and Hive in late September, which always seems to work out pretty well during lulls like this in the market. September buyins are the best hopefully I can scrape up some more cash by then.
Too bad I don't have a 'real job' amirite?
After playing so much Factorio lately I feel pretty dumb for not taking a full time position at Amazon in the logistics department a few years back. Here I am playing a video game that's nothing but logistics and I feel as though I may have squandered an easy opportunity to acquire a lot of crypto back in those days when I was still living in CA. Oh well. These things happen. Committing to full time work isn't all roses anyway. I doubt I would have been able to maintain my blog and my reputation here had I chosen that path.
Conclusion
No one likes these red days (unless you're fully bearish which I never am). This might be an extreme overreaction in the market due to the spacex news in combination with bulls trying to defend a dubious support line with leverage.
The end of September is only 6 weeks away so this lull in the overall upswing shouldn't be too terrible. I was going to say be on the lookout for $25k BTC and 25 cent Hive, but lol after today we are almost already there so that prediction might already be outdated. At this point I think we might go a bit lower like $22k BTC and 22 cent Hive unless we can quickly recover out of the spacex fud. Hopefully the worst is behind us but September is almost never a good month so keep reasonable expectations. Luckily a killer November may be on the horizon as is often the case given the classic market cycle. One can hope.
gross. I thought the summer bull was genna have a bit more horn than that
i didnt even have time to prove how weak my hands are
yeah this summer run was trash my only solace is that it increases the chance of a solid eoy
I’d seen a bunch of Twitterverse folks saying that holding $28k was critical. So much for that.
Meh. Bought a tiny bit of HIVE a few days ago, going to dabble a bit more, and will add some Satoshis over the next week or so.
Blood in the streets is a fine time to buy. 😅
:) since half a year I am just reading the bullish posts here, nobody ever mentioned the possibility of a 5th wave, before the pump... however now it's very likely. (nothing below is an investment advice, just my personal opinion, experience)
also nobody ever mentions the parallel move with silver, gold. back in 2020 february-march, they screwed me with silver. how i see, they do the same with btc. it's all pure manipulation, of course, the 'news' and the 'technical analysis' should be a match, but they own the 'news', and able to manipulate the TA.
3.5 half year ago nobody ever thought it will break down the silver support, but it did. coincidently, the CBs worldwide, and pretty much all banks, govs, billionaires, corps started to buy up all the precious metals.
Fortunately, this time, it is more clear for me. silver, gold doing its 5th wave of correction, so i am waiting for btc to hit 10-15k in a short period of time (maybe not so short, just in the q1-2 next year. (but at least form a new low) And then, all the sudden, the govs (blackrock) will give/get? (all just a show, they are the same) the green light for ETFs, and boom... right that time, very fast, when they emptied as much as pockets they could... the 'news' not important, just the fact, they will start to buy. and they have unlimited FIAT to do that...
now i just need money to jump on that, i was worried i will miss it, now i see, I still have around half year.
(anyway, there is a huge gap in btc around 20k, what probably should fill in before goes up)
and seeing these 3 charts on top of each other, i see the 3rd year in a row the q4 next year q1 as a negative one. 1st wave, 3rd wave and now the 5th wave of the correction is in progress. silver, gold still can fall 15-30%, so i suppose, in those times the cryptos can fall 50%+, maybe not btc, but Hive definitely...
Degen city around here! I’m buying that dip for sure, I can always use some more bitcoin!
The Elon thing is amusing, I wonder how controlled these things are. They released the info today but he may have sold it 60 days ago. Seems crap to me, to sit on that stuff for this long but then again they might not want to doxx his wallets? Hard to say.
Hindsight is always 20-20, just keep moving forward dude and do the best you can! The full time gig may have worked out, it may not have who knows.
Meh... a couple of days ago, I went back to pounding (virtual) pavements for editing gigs again, and now this.
Which isn't to say that I don't care about crypto anymore, just that I am ready for a break from slow decline gives way to sudden drops off a cliff, gives way to slow decline, lather, rinse, repeat. I'm just kinda cooked on the drah-mah.
I noticed the Fear/Greed Index hurriedly went from solidly "neutral" to "fear" in short order.
I guess Elon needed more money so they sold it all so they can slowly buy it back while there's a bottom... and make a few hundred mill as it creeps back up.
=^..^=
10x leverage... they pretty much deserve whatever pain they experienced. Hopefully all disposable income.
Congratulations on working your way into a full time Hive job. I a sure it was a difficukt process, but now you get to enjoy the fruit of your labors.
it's dicouraging to say the least! Almost feels like the bear market is back, but as far as we don't make a lower low... well Hive just did that on Binance :( But on Upbit and the HBD market it did not; so that's at least a silver lining. I thought we were over this
Everyone looking for a job like me too, the market are down for the past two years, They are testing patience at the next level now. Each hope of ETF and other potential upbringing in the market is going down with negative news
https://leofinance.io/threads/rzc24-nftbbg/re-leothreads-trjmavm8
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the people ( rzc24-nftbbg ) sharing the post on LeoThreads,LikeTu,dBuzz.
Some fucked up shit in the market lately. I got liquidated on a 10x long I had opened wen btc was $28,000.
I no longer have any bullish expectations from the market until April next year.
The way I see it $20,000 is pretty much in the cards now.
This is very true. Also, seeing the movement of the graph left me speechless.
As operated by operators.
Operators become giants that can support new markets by forecasting and nimbly creating mechanisms that replace faltering legacy systems. For crypto to decouple from the legacy financial system novel infrastructure that the legacy financial system does not own and operate is necessary. As long as operators operate on the infrastructure of the legacy giants, they cannot grow to become giants, because there are already giants on which they stand. New giants arise on new ground and slay the old giants, or at least take over as they senesce and are buried in the dirt that has accumulated around their obsolete operations, but merely taking their place maintains the legacy systems, increasingly antiquated as technology advances.
The coupling of crypto to the legacy financial system is not merely organic. Crypto was instituted and adopted by folks wholly intent on decoupling, but the operators of the legacy system have prevented that decoupling through the capture of crypto transactions by their dependence on the extant communications network, the internet, the physical infrastructure of which is wholly owned and controlled by legacy institutional mechanisms. Some attempts have been made to create new infrastructures, such as the Cult of the Dead Cow prototyping line of sight microwave comms back in the '90s, but that proved impractical, being limited to ~10km hops, and trees and structures growing impediments to line of sight. Proposals to circumvent such limitations continue to be made, such as tethered balloons and vortex wind turbine kites, but regulatory capture and the hazard presented by tethers seem yet to preclude those proposals.
The several incipient satellite network infrastructures being built out, starting with the Iridium network in 1988, and today perhaps best represented by Starlink, reveal that as technology advances new opportunities for new giants to emerge arise as prior generations and iterations senesce and decline. Because of regulatory capture, software encryption is trumped by hardware backdoored in the factory, and the sky high (ahem) costs of orbital satellites yet preclude independent owned and operated mesh networks in orbit. The costs of access to space continue to decline, as the ability to manufacture hardware continues to decentralize, perhaps best indicated by the launch of Terran 1 in March 2023, 3D printed by Relativity Space, and the ~10x reduction in cost of delivering payloads to orbit enabled by Spacex reusing rockets. Several manufacturers of spacecraft have joined Relativity Space in adopting 3D printing since then, and the decentralization of production of modern goods and services appears to be exponentially accelerating. At the same time the launch industry is rapidly adopting reusable launch vehicles to maintain competitiveness with Spacex.
Until OSH and independent network infrastructure is available to preclude legacy control, decoupling will remain impossible. New satellite communications networks creates competition for bandwidth, and new giants to stand on, while OSH seems yet to languish despite decentralized means of producing electronics having arisen. Tech continually advances, however, and the potential of disruption to the massively centralized chip foundry industry continues to increase as it does. The recent invention of supercapacitors of cement and lamp black seems potential to make Tesla powerwalls of lithium ion batteries obsolete for stationary and road dependent applications (as every structural foundation and road could become supercapacitors) making internal batteries unnecessary (or at least much smaller), and a similar OSH breakthrough seems ever more likely as the diversity of independent means burgeons.
Thanks!
I know that I am a bit of a broken record in your comments... but what has been unaffected by this dip? Not only THORChain, but THORswap, THORwallet DEX, and CoinBT (THORChain telegram bot).
A very impressive dip in price, and possibly another buying opportunity. I will continue to buy small amounts on every dip, and hope for DCA success.