400 Sats

Bitcoin took a big hit over the last two days.

Makes sense that it would. $40k was supposed to be resistance but we breezed right through it on low volume without a care in the world. The market is still being held hostage by the ETF news and can flip on a time in any direction. Nobody wants to sell, but nobody wants to buy either because it pushes the price up too fast (because no one is selling). Low volume is low.

Elizabeth Warren

The foil of Hester 'crypto mom' Pierce has decided to attack crypto once again with a nonsense crypto crackdown bill. Elizabeth Warren has introduced 330 bills over her career and only 11 of those have passed, just to give a frame of reference for the chance of something like this passing.

It's worth noting that even if something like this did pass it would be almost impossible to enforce in many respects. Not only that it gives everyone a huge incentive to just cut the banking sector out of the equation entirely via accelerating DEX technology and creating direct point-of-sale options for crypto that never need to be converted to USD in the first place. HBD just looks better and better as time goes on.

I mean it's pretty obvious that someone is paying Warren to take such a blatant stance against crypto; a technology she can barely comprehend let alone understand well enough to regulate. She insists that 'self-hosted' wallets need to be KYCed, which is inherently impossible in many situations. Just politicians doing politician stuff.

Speaking of politician stuff.

It's comically obvious that one or more parties have flagrantly insider traded this move ahead of the announcement of the bill. This is why we are seeing an immediate V-shaped recovery. The same entity that shorted BTC into the dirt at $44k needs to immediately buy back Bitcoin at the bottom of the V to pay back the loan.

As I've stated many times before news does not affect the market very much anyway, and largely acts as a catalyst. If Bitcoin needed to confirm a support at $40k then that's exactly what it was going to do one way or another. If we are being honest with ourselves this is the ultra bullish scenario for Bitcoin and crypto in general.

$40k was supposed to be a massive resistance but we sliced through it like butter and went straight to $44k. If $40k gets confirmed as support that's more than we could have possibly hoped for just a few short weeks ago. In fact we were supposed to confirm support at a much lower number. Very few will admit this fact because a black hole of insatiable greed dominates the market, always.

400 sats?

On the Hive side of things we've been bleeding out against Bitcoin for the last two years, which is obviously pretty annoying. I can't say I didn't warn everyone. Been talking about the need to stack Bitcoin for over a year now. At this point I'm actually a little disappointed that I didn't acquire more BTC over this time period, but that's the trading game for ya.

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The last time we had to deal with this type of bleedout was back in 2020 and early 2021. Hive scraped the bottom at around 300 sats per coin. Will we get that low again? Quite possible if the ETF news is favorable and BTC spikes while Hive lags behind.

There are three major supports on the HIVE/BTC chart

1. 850 sats (current price)
2. 600 sats
3. 400 sats

My strategy here is basically to buy 50k Hive every time we drop to one of these supports. If we hit 600 sats I'm buying 50k Hive and if we hit 400 I'll buy $50k more. If all goes well we'll do what we always do which is spike like crazy during the bull market year of 2025, potentially pulling a 10x against Bitcoin in an insane rally that lasts a very short amount of time.

If I'm being honest I really hope that history doesn't repeat like this because it's such a boring outcome. Sure it's fun when token moons but the two year bleed that follows is simply not worth it. It's like coming down from hardcore drugs: a little bit of fun in exchange for a lot of pain later. Not cool!

On a very real level there's only one good time to buy Hive and one good time to sell Hive every 4 year cycle, which is pretty annoying and absolutely wrecks impatient players, but at the same time we are approaching the "buy Hive" zone very soon assuming we aren't already there. This entire situation gives off extreme 2020 vibes (2020 == 2024). We might not bottom out against Bitcoin for another 12 months, but hopefully this happens a lot sooner this time around. After all the mechanics of the last cycle were so much different than they are now. No promises. "This time is different" tends to not be a very good strategy in crypto.

The weird thing about "selling" crypto during the bull market (2025) is that I will probably be moving a lot of those assets into HBD. Even if the yield gets reduced so something like 8% it would still be totally worth it and support Hive in the process. Increased demand for the debt of Hive still supports the Hive ecosystem even if it's "just a stable coin". The economics in play are quite interesting. Then again I'm getting ahead of myself for an entire year. 2024 should be interesting as well.

Epic Games wins antitrust lawsuit against Google.

On a side note the creator of Fortnite won a lawsuit against the Google play store due to the shenanigans and the playing of favorites. Interesting enough Apple has actually one similar lawsuits, so what does that tell us? That closed systems are allowed by be monopolies? Seems like it.

However the main point to be made here is that this development is relevant to crypto. If Google can get sued over delisting apps at the store that kind of precedence can only be a benefit to cryptocurrency apps. Would we like to create a decentralized app store that circumvents them completely? Sure, but at the same time that could take a decade to actually get the infrastructure in place for something like that to happen. Baby steps.

Conclusion

Never a dull moment in crypto. The current dip we are in was clearly insider traded and I'm guessing will turn out to be a quite temporary dip. I'd say 'buy the dip' here (at $40k anyway) but at the same time I won't be reopening my long position unless the price crashes to the $31k-$33k range. That's the real rock-bottom.

Hive continues the slow bleed against Bitcoin but the bottom is either in now or almost immediately after an ETF approval. I can almost guarantee that the ultimate time to trade BTC for Hive is coming within 12 months. Hopefully the targets I've picked are good ones, but even if not I'll be fine. Hedge your bets wisely