April 11th 2025 - It's Too Early to Tell...

The apocryphal remark attributed to Zhou Enlai, China’s premier from 1949 to 1976, that it was “too early to tell” whether the French Revolution had been a positive development, has long symbolised China’s strategic patience. While historians debate whether Zhou actually made this comment—or whether it was a mistranslation or misattribution—the sentiment it conveys resonates deeply with China’s millennia-old cultural and political ethos. Rooted in a history spanning dynasties, philosophical traditions like taiji (long-term equilibrium), and governance systems designed for generational stability, China’s approach to economics and geopolitics is inherently long-termist. This contrasts sharply with the West’s, and particularly the United States’, fixation on short-term gains, a divide that profoundly shapes the trajectory of the US-China trade war.

China’s strategic calculus is built on a foundation of continuity and endurance. Its Five-Year Plans, dating back to 1953, prioritise stability, resource security, and incremental progress over immediate returns. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for instance, aims to reshape global trade networks over decades, not years, aligning infrastructure investments with geopolitical influence and resource access. Even in the face of the US-China trade war, Beijing’s response reflects this mindset: it has absorbed tariffs, tech sanctions, and supply chain disruptions while doubling down on domestic innovation, such as semiconductor manufacturing and renewable energy. For China, setbacks are temporary hurdles to be outlasted, not existential crises to be resolved swiftly. This patience is not merely political but cultural—rooted in a worldview where centuries-old philosophies like renhe (harmony) and tiaojie (adjustment over time) guide decision-making.

The West, and especially the US, operates under radically different temporal pressures. Corporate leaders are shackled to quarterly earnings reports, incentivising risk-averse strategies prioritising short-term profit. Politicians, meanwhile, face electoral cycles: US presidents seek legacies within four-year terms, while House representatives must deliver results within two years to satisfy impatient constituents. These constraints foster reactive, transactional policies. The Trump administration’s tariffs and Biden’s chip export restrictions, while framed as bold measures to curb China’s rise, risk alienating allies and destabilising global supply chains without addressing deeper structural issues. The US’s demand for immediate wins—such as reversing China’s tech advances—often overlooks the decades-long investments Beijing has made in sectors like AI and semiconductors.

Both approaches have merits. Western short-termism drives innovation and adaptability, while China’s long-termism can lead to strategic overreach (e.g., the BRI’s debt-driven pitfalls). However, in prolonged conflicts like trade wars, China’s sustained focus may ultimately prevail. The US’s political and economic cycles force constant course corrections, creating unpredictability that undermines alliances and erodes credibility. China, by contrast, can afford to endure pain for decades, leveraging its massive market and state-directed capital to outlast Western sanctions.

Zhou’s alleged quip about the French Revolution—whether authentic or not—offers a prescient lesson: in contests of will, patience is power. The US-China trade war may take decades to resolve, but history suggests that the player willing to wait longest often wins. For now, China’s clock is still ticking.

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