Fragmented Geoeconomy

The combination of intervention in strategic resources and warlike rhetoric revives dynamics of resource competition, but in a more complex and multipolar context. The immediate implications include greater economic volatility, deepening geopolitical divisions, and the risk of conflicts that could escalate.

We are in the midst of a geopolitical game that is redefining the rules of power. It is not a conventional war, but a technical and geopolitical competition for sovereignty resources: oil, rare earths, silicon for chips, and even nitrogen for fertilizers.

The battle is no longer just over the extraction of raw minerals, but also over processing and refining. Value chains are a new battlefield.
· Agreements with geopolitical clauses: "I'll buy your cobalt, but you cannot sell it to X country."
· Smart sanctions: Targeting ships, intermediaries, and transport routes for strategic resources.
· The militarization of economic diplomacy: Military bases and security agreements follow mineral maps.

In the short term, this scenario translates into "structural inflation," breaking global efficiency. "Loyal" supply chains are being reconfigured, but they are less optimal and more expensive. That cost reaches everything and everyone. The resistance of "target" countries has grown; when demand drives up prices, any deal that smells of pure 21st-century extractivism can awaken a nationalist hurricane.

The viability of these trends is partial and fragile.
· It is viable for controlling critical technologies and securing supplies for sensitive sectors.
· It is not viable for recreating a world completely divided into self-sufficient blocs—the economic and political cost is colossal.

The most likely scenario is not a recolonized world, but one that is "balkanized" in strategic terms yet still connected in daily life: a global network full of controlled bottlenecks, agreements, and permanent friction. A system where the security of a resource trumps its price, and where every business decision is tainted by geopolitics.

The great unknown is whether this zero-sum game, where everyone loses efficiency, will be sustainable, or whether the cost will lead us to an unstable modus vivendi based on mutual fear of total rupture. For now, the race to control the controllable continues, and we all pay the price.

Posted Using INLEO