How Many Disappointments Before We Quit?
I have often written about the importance of having patience and perseverance in life, whether it relates to a business (or other projects) or even our investments.
Truth is, people often quit things before they actually have a chance to naturally evolve into success.
That said, surely there must also be a time where we just have to quit, because there just seems to be nothing but endless setbacks, without any significant successes to celebrate.
Of course, we tend to live in a world that's often long on plans and promises and short on execution and delivery.
The world of Crypto is a great example of that.
Excluding outright "planned rugpulls," the vast majority of crypto projects seem to start off with great fanfare and promise... and soon enough turn out to be pretty much nothing, or they end up struggling endlessly, leaving their supporters eternally hoping that "the next time" will get things back on track.
Sometimes I wonder whether it's simply a reality of LIFE that the ratio of success-to-failure is rather tiny.
Even stepping outside the Cryptosphere, the officially published figures suggest that something on the order of 50% new businesses fail within their first five years.
Frankly, I think that understates the reality of things, perhaps because the really small projects — like "solopreneurships" — tend to be severely underreported.
More likely, something like 80% fail within their first five years.
But getting back to disappointments and quitting, not long ago I was having a conversation with a local business owner who started a local shop about eight years ago. Just as they were getting ready to celebrate their first anniversary, there was a freak "200-year" rain storm event that flooded their premises and forced a shutdown for eight weeks, while they cleaned up and rebuilt.
They even had to take out loans to rebuild because their insurance company called the incident an Act of God" and thus not covered.
Just six months after re-opening, the city started a major project — putting all the utilities underground and narrowing the street to make it more pedestrian friendly — on the street where the store was located, severly restricting access to the store's front entrance.
Scheduled to last six months, that project actually took 11 months to complete.
But my acquaintance bravely hung in there, and managed to make it through the rubble and still have a business by a return to normalcy in July 2019.
Eight months later... came COVID and lockdowns and pretty much the closure of all walk-in type establishments.
And that, was the end.
In a sense, this was also an illustration of how something can fail, even though the operator/entrepreneur/business doesn't actually do anything wrong."
One of the things they studiously avoid teaching in business schools is that a substantial element of the success vs. failure rate of a business or project comes down to pure luck. Of course, since you can't teach luck... best to avoid talking about it, altogether!
Disappointment seems pretty common in the Cryptosphere... but perhaps it behooves us to remember that both individual tokens and the overall market tends to make their gains in quick sharp bursts, punctuating many long slow declines or "going sideways."
It's easy to grow disappointed when you look at your investments and watch them lose 1/10 of a percent every day, and it seems just relentless, until the gains suddenly happen as a 20% rise in a week... followed by another protracted period of small declines.
Add in repeated promises of "great things happening, just around the corner," that never actually come to fruition — or are disappointely below estimates — and it becomes very tempting to just throw in the towel and give up.
Even though you might be an optimist and always able to find some tiny ray of hope in all the gloom... there may still come enough when optimism no longer is enough to carry the day.
Feel free to leave a comment — this IS "social" media, after all!
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Wait a second, "Act of God" incidents are precisely the primary reason for insurance.
In the US, the Federal Government has a monopoly on flood insurance. The reason for this is that a flood can take out an entire market ... which would crash insurance companies.
As for the failure of crypto projects. Crypto was supposed to remove human fallibility from the equation. This would make it possible to invest in marginal programs like reward pools.
I guess they were wrong. Too many of the HIVE projects failed. At least we still have WINE!
!WINE
Well, I didn't get all the details, but there was some kind of "fine print exclusion" that let the insurance company off the hook. Sounded like them not being liable for covering an event more serious than had been recorded in the 150-odd years known drainage infrastructure had been in place. As sort of "we don't cover things we didn't believe were possible" exclusion.
This person did not have Federal flood insurance because the location is not in a 500-year floodplain.
I think the "mistake" purveyors of crypto made/make is to disregard the vagaries of human nature. Just because the systems are trustless doesn't eliminate cheating and greed from the equation.
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What is your biggest disappointment in crypto?
Going back to my beginnings in crypto around 2014-15, my biggest disappointment is overall, in the sense that crypto totally lost sight of its beginnings as a fast global, trustless, borderless, non-political alternative payment and monetary system.
The whole idea of "all the things you can DO with crypto and blockchain" seems to have been almost entirely replaced by finance bros with "Lambo dreams" and typical Wall Street greed.
Ouch! Quitting because of bad luck can be a tough reality to accept after putting your best efforts to take a business off the ground.
I've heard of a similar story of a local bakery that had to be demolished by the government because the whole area has been "repurposed" while the owner already took out a huge loan to build the bakery into a high standard shop.
Yes, it was definitely a painful situation. And more than the immediate, it also caused that business owner to give up on self-employment completely, and go back to work in administration for some out-of-town company.
Your bakery story is something I've seen similar to here, as well... but at least when the government exercises "eminent domain" for public projects (at least in the USA) they are required by law to compensate any businesses displaced.
Right. It could be a tough hurdle, subconsciously, to get back into the self employment realm, even when a good opportunity may present itself.
It's a bit different over here, the compensation doesn't come on time, it takes a while or the strategy the government sometimes use is paying it in portions. Besides, the total amount of compensation can be way less that the amount spent on "developing" the place.
I loathe this. I'm an Atheist. I am appalled that a company can blame a deity to get out of their responsibility to customers. It is reprehensible. It's an act of physics. Everything is. :)
When we consider all the ideas that "business" (and normal) people have, I think the failure rate for commerce is way higher than what any statistics can ever report.
While it takes a lot of effort for something to go from idea to data, to business to profit, blame is never the right thing. An analysis of the circumstance(s) surrounding the idea, the execution, the outcome, (which sadly, can only be done in retrospect) arrives at the obvious outcome.
Even if the business was in the perfect location, away from flood waters, away from roadworks, away from other things, it would then probably be away from its customers - it might still be around, but the outcome may have just been drawn out and the conclusion, the dissolution, the "given up" just delayed.
I have always thought the whole "Act of God" thing is ridiculous... particularly since actuarial science is entirely numbers based risk assessment... maybe that's why that loophole was created? To allow for an "out" when nothing else could be applied.
You're right about the blame game, though. "Events" simply happen, and they fall along a sort of sine curve of happening to any given person anything from frequently to infrequently. Invariably, there will be somebody at some point who will experience multiple consecutive setbacks, just like others will appear to us to be able to "run between the raindrops," metaphorically speaking. This is only natural, but some folks want to make it personal and ascribe the supernatural to it, whether it's "God," or "curses" or whatever.
My experience has been that much of the time we just need to let it go at "I don't know" because there are so many variables involved in establishing exact causality that not only is the calculation all but impossible, the likelihood that such a set of variables is replicable approaches zero... so "why bother?"
My father was fond of saying that "summer rain is BAD if you are having an outdoor wedding, but GOOD if your vegetable garden is parched and dying... but ultimately it's just water falling from the sky."
There's a science fiction short story by Cixin Liu called "The Mirror" that has a "computer" that can track everything on an atomic level - it is a fascinating exploration of that actuarial science, and how the development of such tech / computational force would change society - perhaps for the better, perhaps for the worse.
Thank you for your reply, it tickled my intellectual fancy on a rainy Sunday morning.