De-Dollarization in check? Russia's unexpected turn towards the dollar
Russia, in a move that challenges the narrative of global de-dollarization, appears to be considering a rapprochement with the U.S. dollar, which would mark a drastic shift in its economic and geopolitical policy. A memorandum, to which Bloomberg has gained access, suggests Kremlin proposals for a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration, including Russia's return to the dollar system.
This 180-degree turn contrasts with the accelerated de-dollarization that was globally promoted after the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. These sanctions, in response to the invasion of Ukraine, led to the freezing of approximately 300 billion dollars in Russian Central Bank reserves and its expulsion from the Swift system, severely limiting its ability to conduct transactions in dollars.
The video highlights that the use of the dollar as a foreign policy tool is not a recent phenomenon, dating back to sanctions against Iran in 2010. While the tactic of financially isolating countries has been successful in the past, as in Iran's case, Russia managed to withstand the sanctions by accumulating gold reserves and, thanks to its capacity to export raw materials, finding a key buyer in China.
Putin's current proposal, described as a "reverse Nixon," seeks to improve Russia's economic situation by re-establishing ties with the United States, thereby avoiding the need to sell energy to China at discounted prices. The seven points of the revealed memorandum include joint ventures in oil and natural gas, access for American companies to the Russian market, cooperation in nuclear energy, and Russia's return to the dollar settlement system, among others.
Although some sources consulted by Bloomberg deem it unlikely that Putin would act against China's interests, the logic behind this move is undeniable. Despite de-dollarization efforts, the dollar remains the most widely used currency in international trade. Furthermore, the BRICS' advancements in creating an alternative reserve currency have not materialized.
This scenario, in the context of possible elections in Ukraine and a peace referendum, could lead to the end of sanctions on Russia. The convergence of interests between Russia and the United States, especially the need for energy and raw materials for artificial intelligence, suggests that an agreement of this nature could be mutually beneficial.
Such an agreement could signify the end of traditional geopolitical blocs, such as the post-war Western bloc and the BRICS, paving the way for a system of agreements based purely on economic interest. In this new landscape, the dollar could remain the preferred medium of exchange, but the way it is used and how the United States is financed could evolve. Three scenarios are proposed: the direct imposition of bond purchases on trading partners, indirect imposition through dollar-backed stablecoins, or a return to the gold standard, or even Bitcoin, as a reserve.
This geopolitical shift, which could mark the end of trust-based systems, underscores the need to consider which system will require less dependence and, therefore, will prevail in the coming years.
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