Will COMAC Become A Major Player In The Airline Industry?
The above image confirms that only 5 of the 19 components of the COMAC C919 are Chinese manufactured so it is heavily reliant on Western technologies and imports.
With the tit for tat tariffs being thrown around between China and the US plus the announcement that China will no longer support BOEING you have to wonder if there is another story behind this. China has to have a plan B because air travel does not just stop. Last week the Chinese Government ordered one of their airlines to return a Boeing 737 Max as soon as it had touched down for delivery. All of the Chinese orders have apparently been cancelled with Boeing.
COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) is the state owned Chinese aircraft company and they are still a very small player in the supply of aircraft. The Chinese are not up to speed with aircraft like they are with motor vehicles and EV's. The cynic in me says they have not copied and mastered all the technology yet and they need more time.
When we look at COMAC's C919 model which is identical to an Airbus S320 and a Boeing 737 MAX you have to ask the question what is holding them back from mass production. Last year COMAC manufactured 13 C919 planes which was up from 2 the year before.
The problem les in that all the high tech equipment and instruments that run the aircraft are manufactured by US companies. What would really hit COMAC is if this technology was now with held and sanctioned. Why would you supply a future competitor who is going to copy your intellectual property?
The engines they use are General Electric and are what the manufacturers were using 10 years ago so fuel efficient and the latest tech they are not. The latest news is that COMAC have now enquired whether AIRBUS will supply the engines to replace those from GE in order to bypass the tariffs. The tariffs now being imposed on US imports is now hurting COMAC because they are no longer considered "cheap" competition as you may save on the purchase price, but your running costs are through the roof. The C919 and it's equivalent competition is an aircraft favored by low cost airlines and having engines that were not fuel efficient would just not work.
Last year I mentioned COMAC built and delivered 13 aircraft and they have a back log of over 1000 orders all to Chinese airlines. This s going to be the next major hurdle upping the manufacturing numbers to compete with the likes of Airbus and Boeing plus not forgetting the Brazilian small part player Embraer. China is expected to become the biggest aviation market in the world before 2050 accounting for roughly 20% of the plane market.
When you consider Airbus is manufacturing and delivering around 750 aircraft per year and Boeing around 300 and Embraer 75. The Chinese have along way to go, but history tells us they are capable of doing this. Another stumbling block is COMAC being regulated by the EU (EASA) and US (FAA) safety bodies and without that they cannot export or fly internationally. Using US manufactured instruments and technology will help in this case until they start making their own. They actually do not need to supply the rest of the world and can just supply internally for local aviation needs.
I do think the tariff wars will speed up COMAC's manufacturing numbers as they have no other choice. The make or break part is the supply of flight instruments and somehow why do we think and know they are already copying their suppliers. Reverse engineering products is what the Chinese do. The saving grace is these instruments were not being manufactured in China and were made in the US for obvious reasons.
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"Can COMAC overcome supply chain and engine tech challenges fast enough to compete globally with Boeing and Airbus?"
Taken from what you wrote, if China can’t get the advanced technology they need, especially engines and flight instruments, it will be very hard for COMAC to grow fast or compete globally. The trade war might push China to work harder at making their own parts, but it’ll take time. Something has to be done quickly to resolve these issues.
Yes making their own is not going to be so easy considering these items were not outsourced to Chinese manufacturing and kept at home. If you think about it China made items for other companies and learned that technology to develop similar items. Not having the technology will make it even harder ad the it as to be certified by international regulators. I do not see COMAC exporting planes so they may not need to have to meet the safety standards.
Hmm, you are right, but recently, it seems China is now advanced in technology. So we never can tell what they are capable of in a year to come since our challenges always push us and, in most cases, end up to our advantage.
Agreed, but this technology they need to develop and why it is so protected. They do not have any head starts on this one. They are not even close in this technology or they would be using their own tech. This intellectual property is protected for good reason because it is so specialist and why there are only one or two companies doing these items.
You are right. They should just reach a consensus, which I believe is the right thing to do. I don't think any country in the world can service on its own without directly or indirectly relating to other countries. It is just my opinion though.