So Much Uncertainty

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This week the Formula One calendar moves to the Shanghai circuit in China with the completed Australian Grand Prix revealing quite a bit. The key word here is uncertainty with both teams and drivers on a steep learning curve. 2026 has seen the introduction of new car regulations and these cars are very different.

During the free practice sessions in Australia we saw experienced drivers struggling being caught out by the car with not everything being in sync and thus there is a sense of unpredictability. Verstappen had his rear brakes lock up during qualifying which sent him hurtling into the barriers and it was deemed a hydraulics failure. This ultimately had him starting from the back of the grid.

Formula One is all about data which when gathered and compiled helps to unlock performance and these are still early days which hopefully will improve as the season progresses.

Piastri the only Australian racing in their Grand Prix crashed on the formation lap whilst heading towards the grid. One could see he was struggling with the gears as these gearboxes need to be synchronized and are not all tuned and ready to go. The other part which lead to the crash besides cold tyres and very little grip was the sudden surge in electrical power. Piastri was looking for power which was not available and it seems there was a delay before the electrical power kicked in. The team has since reported a surge of 100kwh occurred and what caused the accident sending Piastri into the barriers and out of the race. When we think of electric power we think of instant, but it would cause chaos if it only kicked in a second or two later.

The Formula One power units/engines are a 50/50 split with electric power suppled by a 350 kwh battery. The 1.6 liter V6 turbo charged hybrid engine has been tuned down from 600kwh to only offer 350kwh of power and with the battery offering the same 350kwh this is now a power unit and not just an engine. If electric power is not received immediate when pressed and coming through a fraction later then there is an element of the unknown. This is a pocket rocket ship and drivers are on the sharp end.

Another interesting feature is the turbo and before the start of the race there is a short delay of around 5 seconds so the cars can get high enough revs for the start. Ferrari are the only team that has a smaller turbo which gives them a big advantage at the start with what seems like instant power to the tyres and LeClerc moved from 4th to 1st and Hamilton 7th to 3rd showing they have an upper hand.

In the past years pole was important due to many tracks offering fewer chances for overtaking and these slightly smaller cars should change that. Ferrari do not need pole position to take the lead into the first corner as they have more speed and power over a short distance. One can only think what would happen if they managed to get pole position and what type of lead they could create on the first lap. A track like Monaco you could kind of pencil in a Ferrari win already as they should hit the front if they qualify in the top 4 or 5 positions.

Looking back at the Australian Grand Prix which Mercedes dominated finishing 1st and 2nd could have been very different. Ferrari never took advantage of a cheap pit stop under safety car conditions which all the other teams did. A pit stop under a safety car in Melbourne offered a saving of between 12 and 15 seconds and Mercedes won by 14 seconds so the race would have been very different.

Shanghai is this weekend and it looks like it will be a battle between Mercedes and Ferrari yet nothing seems that obvious and is more about which team can get to grips with the data the fastest will be challenging out front. Verstappen and Red Bull will be one of those that needs to be added to the mix and is my tip for this weekend.

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