Legacy Automaker Carnage In South Africa

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I recognise only a handful of Chinese auto brands that are already in South Africa and know that Geely is still to launch along with 2 others later this year.

Lately there have been a number of articles around the legacy auto makers in South Africa and how they have dropped the ball. Things are becoming so bad some are comparing them to Blackberry and Nokia by not pivoting in time thinking they were too big to fail.

What has changed over the last 10 years and I would go as far to say more like 3 years is the Chinese auto makers influence. In the last 3 years the rise of these unknown brands has decimated what was once a safe market for the legacy brands. Brand loyalty has been tossed aside due to price and what is being included in the overall package.

The big change has been the 7 year warranty and service plan the Chinese auto makers offer compared to the legacy brands strict 3 year warranty and service plan. This is a major selling factor and one that has changed the way people buy cars. Before the Chinese arrived it was all about brands you knew and trusted which you would pay a premium price knowing you had proven reliability. The 7 year warranty and service plan blew that thinking out of the water knowing you are being taken care of for 4 years longer. The length of time gives consumers the added confidence they may not have had other wise.

We know the sales figures of the legacy auto brands are down and have been sliding for some time and I would go as far to say they have in the last year or two become alarming. From 2015 until 2025 the likes of Audi, Volvo , BMW, Mercedes and MINI have seen a 70% drop in sales across the board. There was very little reported about this before and why I would say the vast majority of lost sales happened during 2024 and 2025.

These are 4 well known brands and if they are suffering such heavy losses then you can guarantee all the others are as well. The 70 000 cars sold per annum down to 23 000 within a 10 year period is not just a problem it is a closing down problem. The auto plants that employ tens of thousands of workers will be gone and these are not jobs you will replace. The Chinese may replace the plants with their own, but you can guarantee there will be more automation requiring less employees.

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This new Chery bakkie/pick up will decimate the competition which includes Ford, Toyota, Nissan and VW. This model is due to arrive within the next few months.

You have to be asking the questions of how these large companies have allowed this to happen because their days in South Africa are numbered and would guess less than 5 years and possibly 3 years or less before they are gone. This is an ass whipping on mega proportions which is only going to get worse.

There is talk that 3 more Chinese brands are due to arrive this year which is worrying considering a giant like BYD as done a soft launch thus far and is only now stepping up by introducing 3 more models. Chery launched 19 new models this year and this week launched a rival to the Ford pickup (Ranger) also with the 7 year warranty and service plan.

If the legacy auto industry thought things were bad then with every new brand and new model launch this is going to go from bad to worse very fast.

Posted Using INLEO