Jupiler League 2023-2024 | Final Regular Season Team Stats
The main purpose for keeping my own stats is that it generally helps me to get a better feel on all the teams and it also gives me data that isn't that easy to be found especially the performance of teams against Asian handicaps and total lines. This if anything helps to potentially identify Value. I'm making this post mainly in the hope to spot some patterns with an eye on the next season already.
Final Regular Season Rankings
My personal Prediction before the start of the season was
01 Club Brugge
02 Antwerp
03 AA Gent
04 Genk
05 Anderlecht
06 Union
07 Cercle Brugge
08 OH Leuven
09 Westerlo
10 Standard
11 Charleroi
12 stvv
13 Mechelen
14 Kortrijk
15 Eupen
16 RWDM
The ones who did way better were Union, Anderlecht & Mechelen and it is no coincidence that these are the 3 teams who also are the top 3 teams beating their handicaps (see below)
Best Team Ranking
The way I look at the best teams as a sports bettor is those who managed to beat the general expectation and provide the most profit (or loss in case teams you want to oppose) against their asian closing lines. This is the ranking for the 2023-2024 Regular Season
| Rank | Team | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Anderlecht | +38.22% |
| 02 | Mechelen | +27.83% |
| 03 | Union | +17.62% |
| 04 | Stvv | +9.70% |
| 05 | Cercle Brugge | +4.33% |
| 06 | OH Leuven | +2.57% |
| 07 | Westerlo | -5.45% |
| 08 | Antwerp | -7.20% |
| 09 | Genk | -9.03% |
| 10 | Kortrijk | -9.12% |
| 11 | Club Brugge | -12.83% |
| 12 | Standard | -12.98% |
| 13 | AA Gent | -13.65% |
| 14 | Eupen | -18.20% |
| 15 | RWDM | -18.56% |
| 16 | Charleroi | -29.17% |
Since there is juice and Bookies generally know what they are doing by the time the line closes, most teams end in a clear loss when just betting them on every single match.
Totals Team Ranking
These were the teams where the market got the total lines most wrong calculated on the closing over handicap line.
| Rank | Team | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Westerlo | +19.08% |
| 02 | RWDM | +17.68% |
| 03 | Union | +7.60% |
| 04 | Anderlecht | +2.78% |
| 05 | AA Gent | -3.43% |
| 06 | Antwerp | -5.70% |
| 07 | Club Brugge | -9.95% |
| 08 | Mechelen | -14.42% |
| 09 | Stvv | -15.67% |
| 10 | Charleroi | -17.90% |
| 11 | Eupen | -18.43 |
| 12 | Standard | -21.93% |
| 13 | Genk | -22.30% |
| 14 | Kortrijk | -22.53% |
| 15 | OH Leuven | -29.27% |
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | -32.52% |
The statistics are way less outspoken on the totals with RWDM who was last in the standing with a terrible defense near the end beating the total lines. Cercle which was a team I have almost systematically taken the under on for quite some time ended last with a -32.52% ROI and were a +30.47% ROI team when taking them on the under closing line in every single match. The line never really adjusted mostly because the expected goals were quite high.
Xg Team Stats
| Rank | Team | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Club Brugge | 1.93 xg |
| 02 | Union | 1.88 xg |
| 03 | Genk | 1.85 xg |
| 04 | Cercle Brugge | 1.65 xg |
| 05 | Antwerp | 1.58 xg |
| 06 | AA Gent | 1.57 xg |
| 07 | Anderlecht | 1.53 xg |
| 08 | Westerlo | 1.25 xg |
| 09 | Stvv | 1.20 xg |
| 10 | Mechelen | 1.14xg |
| 11 | Charleroi | 1.08 xg |
| 12 | OH Leuven | 1.03 xg |
| 13 | RWDM | 1.02 xg |
| 14 | Standard | 0.94 xg |
| 15 | Eupen | 0.84 xg |
| 16 | Kortrijk | 0.77 xg |
I also try to give each team a score based on their team performance each week which over an entire season resulted in these numbers
Union even though they did come out on top probably deserve a bit more, and Club Brugge is surprisingly close given their ranking in the league probably because they are 1st in the xg and rarely had really bad matches. Other teams like Anderlecht and Mechelen had stretches of bad matches which got their overall scores down a bit. Generally I'm pretty pleased with the overall results which predicted at least the bottom 6 teams.
General League Stats
Over the entire season it showed that home teams (+1.69%) and the unders (+4.48%) beat the asian lines while the favorites (-0.18%) did better than backing the underdogs (-4.78%)
52.1% of the matches had at least 1 goal after minute 72' with 33.76% of the matches having 4 goals or more. The average number of goals was 2.78 a match and 26.67% of the games ended in a Draw.
Roughly 45% of the goals came in the 1st half and 55% in the 2nd. There on average were 9.979 corners in each match going 131W-109L on en over 9.5 line.
Home/Away Divergence Teams
One of the tings I also like to look at is the difference in performance at home and away which might be something that gives an edge on the market as too much importance often is set on the overall stats.
- Handicaps
| Team | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | +4.73% | -30.40% |
| Antwerp | +9.33% | -23.73% |
| Genk | -24.93% | +6.87% |
| Union | +0.80% | +34.43% |
| OHL | +23.23% | -18.10% |
| Westerlo | -20.90% | +10.00% |
- Totals (Over)
| Team | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| AA Gent | +29.20% | -36.07% |
| Genk | +7.87% | -52.47% |
| Union | +20.67% | -5.47% |
| Cercle Brugge | -11.53% | -53.50% |
| OHL | -67.80% | +9.27% |
| Standard | -49.80% | +5.93% |
| Charleroi | +1.57% | -37.37% |
| Stvv | -47.83% | +16.50% |
| RWDM | -9.53% | +44.90% |
Especially on the totals, this is really a thing for many teams and something to watch out for in the future.
I'll be taking some of these stats into the playoffs which will start next week and which I will also cover with previews and bets.
Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using with some allowing anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...
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Previous Crypto Bet Results & Record
| Year | Bets | Won | Lost | Push | Staked | Profit BTC | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 | 76 | 42 | 31 | 3 | 0.1685 | +0.029687 | +17.62% |
| 2021-2022 | 56 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0.115 | +0.0166 | +14.45% |
| 2020-2021 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.0250 | -0.002845 | -11.38% |
| 2019-2020 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0100 | +0.01271 | +127% |
| 2018-2019 | 59 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 0.5900 | -0.02199 | -3.7% |
| 2017-2018 | 136 | 65 | 64 | 7 | 1.233 | +0.112687 | +9.14% |
| 2016-2017 | 70 | 34 | 34 | 2 | 0.658 | +0.006912 | +1.05% |
| Total | 402 | 194 | 183 | 22 | 2.7995 | +0.153761 | +5.49% |
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IMPORTANT !
Past results don't guarantee Future Results. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If you're not a professional, every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being successful at gambling. These bets are posted as a way to help myself in order to stay disciplined, always hold yourself accountable if you end up following. Proper Bankroll Management can highly decrease the risk of heavy losses!Posted using SportsTalkSocial