RE: LeoThread 2026-02-22 13-15
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In 2025, 25 data center projects were canceled due to community pushback, up from 6 in 2024 and 2 in 2023
The opposition is notably bipartisan and driven overwhelmingly by one factor: rising electricity prices for local residents
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In Q2 2025 alone, 20 projects were blocked or delayed, putting $98B in potential investment at risk
The 2025 cancellations represented ~4.7 gigawatts of lost electricity capacity. Using OpenAI’s estimate of revenue per gigawatt (~$10B), those cancellations equal roughly $50B in lost AI revenue in a single year
Applying a 20x earnings multiple to that revenue implies about $1 trillion in lost enterprise value in one year
At least 99 data center projects are currently being contested nationwide. Historically, ~40% of projects facing sustained opposition are eventually canceled
That suggests many more gigawatts, billions in revenues, and trillions in enterprise value are at risk unless the electricity cost issue is addressed
The core problem: local residents are being asked to subsidize AI infrastructure through higher electricity bills with no upside, which is not sustainable
Until the electricity cost equation is solved, community opposition will remain a systemic and underpriced risk to the AI sector and the broader economy