RE: LeoThread 2025-11-01 18-57

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Weekly roundup...

  1. OpenAI — corporate evolution


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After months of speculation, OpenAI has reorganized as OpenAI Group PBC, a for-profit public benefit corporation valued at about $500 billion and governed by the original nonprofit parent.

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The change ends the prior “capped-profit” setup (previous investor returns were limited to 100x) and clarifies ownership questions that emerged during last year’s governance turmoil.

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The reorganization coincides with a definitive agreement with Microsoft that gives both parties more flexibility for the “next phase” of their partnership.

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Microsoft now owns roughly 27% of the new entity (≈$135 billion), with remaining equity distributed among other investors, employees, and the nonprofit.

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The deal extends Microsoft’s IP rights for models and products through 2032 and explicitly covers models developed post-AGI, with AGI status to be adjudicated by an independent expert panel.

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In exchange for more predictable access to future model families and the ability to pursue independent AGI paths with potential partners, Microsoft gave up certain veto and right-of-first-refusal privileges.

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The reorganization closes an early chapter of the AI buildout and opens a path for wider scaling.

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Internal discussions reportedly target a potential IPO valuing the company up to $1 trillion, with a possible filing in late 2026 and listing in 2027, and plans to raise at least $60 billion.

  1. Earnings snapshot
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Microsoft posted a solid quarter with Azure growth beating expectations and continued AI momentum, but the stock fell about 3% as investors focused on rising AI-related CapEx that is compressing operating cash flow.

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Management acknowledged being “short on capacity” in Azure, implying near-term missed revenue until larger buildouts come online.

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Meta reported record quarterly revenue (~$51 billion, up ~26% YoY) but net income plunged after a $16 billion one-time tax charge tied to a corporate tax law adjustment.

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Excluding that item, heavy spending on R&D, data centers, and AI pushed projected CapEx toward ~$97 billion next year, nearly double the prior year, and EPS fell to around $1.05/share, triggering an ~11% single-day stock drop.

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Alphabet hit its first-ever $100 billion revenue quarter, driven by strong ad sales and a booming Google Cloud; cloud was the fastest-growing segment with a backlog near $155 billion.

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The stock rose about 2.5% to a new high, showing mature monetization plus AI/cloud bets can be rewarded.

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Apple reported a record September-quarter revenue ($102.5 billion), lifted by an all-time high in Services — the high-margin recurring-revenue engine tied to the installed base of over 2 billion active devices (App Store commissions, licensing, subscriptions, iCloud, payments, etc.) — nudging the stock higher.

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Amazon beat across total revenue, AWS revenue, and EPS, propelled by robust retail sales, cost efficiencies, and AWS strength.

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The stock jumped more than 13% in after-hours trading as investors rewarded visible AI-cloud momentum and improved operational efficiency following recent layoffs.

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The week underscored that growth alone isn’t enough; markets are focusing on how growth is achieved, the cost structure, and margin quality.

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Firms that combined strong growth with clear execution were rewarded, while others faced scrutiny over costs and strategic clarity.

  1. Federal Reserve — the policy pivot
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At the October 29 meeting the Fed cut the federal-funds rate by 25 bps to a 3.75%–4.00% range and said it will end the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings (QT) on December 1, effectively halting balance-sheet runoff.

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The decision was not unanimous, with two dissents reflecting differing views on the pace and necessity of the reversal.

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The FOMC reiterated its longer-run goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting inflation remains “somewhat elevated” but highlighting a slowing labor market and rising downside risks to employment.

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The Committee judged that risks have shifted toward the downside for jobs, signaling greater concern about preventing a labor-market collapse than chasing small changes in inflation.

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Chair Powell emphasized that a December cut is not guaranteed and that policy remains data-dependent, with limited visibility due in part to the federal government shutdown and no preset policy path.

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OpenAI's shift to a capped profit model and new board feels like pre SPAC grooming, but the go;vernance signals for retail is still muddy :)

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yeah, that capped profit shift does scream pre-SPAC vibes, and the governance stuff is definitely murky for us regular folks

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