The Split of Trends: BTC rebounds as ETFs sink
The cryptocurrency market on November 23, 2025, stood at a strategic crossroads, characterized by a technical price rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum following a sell-off, which was simultaneously suppressed by record capital outflows from ETF funds and regulatory and technical challenges within altcoin ecosystems.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics – Analysis of Events from November 23, 2025
NFT of the Day
Name: The Trendbreaker
Date 23 November 2025
Type: ⬜️ Common
Quantity: 20 pieces
Price: 5 HIVE
Available for purchase on [NFTshowroom]
Introduction
The cryptocurrency market on November 23, 2025, presented a complex and tense picture. On one hand, major digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum showed promising signs of recovery following a period of steep sell-offs. On the other hand, the market struggled with fundamental challenges, including record outflows from ETF funds, signaling weakening institutional investor appetite, and technical incidents in key ecosystems. The purpose of this report is a thorough analysis of these opposing forces to provide investors with a clear picture of market dynamics and outline prospects for the near future.
1. Recovery After the Storm: Price and Liquidation Volume Analysis
The analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements is a key barometer of sentiment across the entire cryptocurrency market. Their rebound on November 23 occurred after a period of extreme sell-off that pushed prices to multi-month lows. Detailed data from November 23 indicates a clear, albeit still fragile, recovery:
- Bitcoin (BTC): The price reached $86,161 USD, representing a +2.45% increase over 24 hours. This was a significant rebound from seven-month lows, which had hovered around $82,000 USD the previous week.
- Ethereum (ETH): The price rose by +3.09% to $2,809.27 USD. Despite the daily increase, Ethereum’s year-over-year value was over 17% lower, reflecting broader challenges.
- Global Market Capitalization: The value of the entire cryptocurrency market increased by +2.68%, reaching $2.94 trillion USD.
This rebound was driven by a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors. A key role was played by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin reaching an "extremely oversold" level, which historically signaled the exhaustion of selling pressure. The recovery was further strengthened by the easing of selling pressure and growing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
The scale of the recent sell-off was enormous, illustrated by the following table of liquidations in the derivatives market:
| Liquidation Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Liquidated Traders (24h) | 117,928 |
| Total Liquidation Value | $206.39 million USD (per CoinGlass) |
| Largest Single Position | $3.03 million USD (HYPE-USD) |
| Long Position Liquidations | $78.68 million USD |
| Short Position Liquidations | $114 million USD |
| Bitcoin Liquidations | $73.83 million USD |
| Ethereum Liquidations | $49.58 million USD |
This data demonstrates the intensity of market pressure. It should be noted that "thin weekend liquidity", characteristic of Sunday trading, likely compounded both the earlier declines and the subsequent sharp rebound.
2. Institutional Headwind: Record ETF Fund Outflows
Flows in Bitcoin ETF funds, since their debut in January 2024, are a key indicator of institutional demand. Therefore, the record net outflows registered in November 2025 constitute a crucial warning signal for the entire market.
The scale of the outflows was unprecedented, as illustrated by the following data:
- Total net outflows from US Bitcoin ETF funds reached $3.79 billion USD by November 23.
- This value exceeded the previous monthly outflow record from February, which was $3.56 billion USD.
- On a single day, November 21, over $900 million USD was withdrawn from the funds, making it the second-largest single-day outflow in the history of these instruments.
The largest market players were particularly affected:
- BlackRock (IBIT): The flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust fund saw outflows of $2.47 billion USD, accounting for 63% of all outflows for the month.
- Fidelity (FBTC): The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund recorded outflows of $1.09 billion USD.
Analysts at NYDIG suggest that the sharp price drop was driven primarily by "market mechanics" rather than a fundamental "change in sentiment". In their view, the same market forces that previously fueled growth temporarily reversed direction, triggering a cascade of selling.
3. Divergence in the Altcoin Market: XRP Strength Versus Cardano's Technical Challenges
The altcoin market on November 23 was a perfect example of divergence, where individual assets reacted to their own unique events rather than general market trends. The contrast is best illustrated by the bullish signal for XRP and the technical problems of the Cardano network.
XRP Analysis
XRP stood out as one of the recovery leaders, gaining 6.93% and reaching a price of $2.0425 USD. This growth was supported by strong fundamental and on-chain indicators:
- Investor Sentiment: The ratio of bullish to bearish sentiment reached 2.1:1, the highest level in two weeks.
- "Whale" Activity: Increasing activity from large wallets suggested that institutional players were accumulating assets.
- Potential "Supply Squeeze": Shrinking XRP reserves on the Binance exchange (a drop from 2.795 billion to 2.785 billion in a single day), combined with rising expectations for the approval of spot XRP ETFs, could create upward pressure on prices.
Analysis of the Cardano Network (ADA) Incident
In contrast to the positive signals for XRP, the Cardano network experienced a serious technical incident. On November 21, a temporary "chain split" occurred, causing market concern.
- Technical Cause: The incident was caused by a "malformed" delegation transaction that exploited a vulnerability known since 2022 in one of the software libraries.
- Market Consequences: Coinbase and Upbit exchanges temporarily suspended ADA token deposits and withdrawals.
- Response and Resolution: Cardano development teams implemented emergency patches within just three hours, and the network returned to full functionality the next day.
- Narrative Surrounding the Incident: Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, described the incident as an "intentional attack". A user named "Homer J." claimed responsibility, stating that they acted alone and without malicious intent.
- Price Impact: Immediately following the incident, the price of ADA fell by over 6%.
This clear divergence underscores the growing maturity of the market, where individual project fundamentals are becoming key differentiating factors.
4. The Sector's Hidden Strength: Record Growth in Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
The strategic significance of growth in the DeFi sector cannot be underestimated. The dynamic expansion of DeFi in the third quarter of 2025, in stark contrast to spot market instability, signals growing maturity, adoption, and trust in decentralized financial protocols. Key data from the Galaxy Digital report on the DeFi lending market:
- Value of Outstanding DeFi Loans: Increased by $14.52 billion USD (54.84%) in Q3, reaching $40.99 billion USD by the end of the quarter.
- Total Loan Value (DeFi + CeFi): The total value of crypto-backed loans set a new all-time record at $65.37 billion USD.
- Dominance of DeFi over CeFi Loans: The share of DeFi loans in the entire market rose to a record high of 62.71%.
The main factors driving this growth were innovative incentive mechanisms, such as "points farming" programs and airdrops. However, the report warns against the risk of "double counting" data, as CeFi entities may obtain capital through DeFi protocols, which could artificially inflate the perceived scale of activity.
5. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Background
The cryptocurrency market is heavily dependent on global monetary policy and dynamically changing regulatory frameworks.
Expectations Regarding the Federal Reserve
A key macroeconomic factor was the growing expectation of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased during the week from 33-44% to 67-70%.
- These expectations were strengthened by signals from Fed officials and Barclays Research analysis.
- At the same time, uncertainty prevailed in the market because the recent "federal government shutdown" caused delays in the publication of key economic data.
Regulatory Landscape
Global legal frameworks for digital assets continue to evolve:
| Jurisdiction | Key Regulatory Initiatives |
|---|---|
| United States | The "Project Crypto" initiative (SEC Chairman Paul Atkins) aimed at introducing token taxonomy and the legal framework "Regulation Crypto". |
| Poland | Adoption of the "Act on the Cryptocurrency Assets Market" on November 7, aimed at market supervision and investor protection. |
6. Synthesis and Future Perspectives
The analysis of November 23, 2025, reveals the market at a strategic crossroads, where short-term technical indicators are in direct conflict with fundamental institutional capital flows. The strength of the DeFi sector, contrasting with the withdrawal of capital from ETF funds, points to the growing internal maturity of the ecosystem, which nevertheless remains heavily dependent on external macroeconomic factors. In the near future, the market will be shaped by the following factors:
- Federal Reserve Decision in December: This will be the main catalyst for market sentiment in the short term, as a potential interest rate cut could provide a much-needed boost to the market.
- Evolution of Institutional Demand: Further monitoring of ETF fund flows will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of the recovery.
- Regulatory Development: Progress in initiatives such as "Project Crypto" in the USA will be of fundamental importance for the long-term stability of the sector.
The events of November 23 serve as an important reminder of the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and emphasize the necessity of disciplined risk management and portfolio diversification.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why did Bitcoin ETF funds record record outflows in November 2025?
By November 23, 2025, total net outflows from US Bitcoin ETF funds reached $3.79 billion USD, exceeding the previous monthly record from February. Analysts suggest that this sharp drop in institutional demand was driven mainly by "market mechanics" and a cascade of selling, rather than a fundamental change in sentiment. BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) recorded the largest outflows.
What was the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 23, 2025?
On November 23, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a price of $86,161 USD, representing a +2.45% increase over 24 hours, and was a rebound from seven-month lows. Ethereum (ETH) increased by +3.09%, reaching $2,809.27 USD.
What caused the temporary "chain split" in the Cardano network?
The technical incident in the Cardano network (ADA), which occurred on November 21, was caused by a "malformed" delegation transaction, which exploited a vulnerability known since 2022 in one of the software libraries. Although the transaction was valid at the protocol level, it led to a divergence between network nodes. The incident caused the ADA price to fall by over 6% and temporary suspension of withdrawals on exchanges.
What macroeconomic factors influenced the cryptocurrency market during the analyzed period?
A key macroeconomic factor was the growing market expectation of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased to 67-70%. Additionally, the market faced uncertainty related to delays in the publication of key economic data resulting from the "federal government shutdown".
How significant was the increase in the value of loans in the DeFi sector in Q3 2025?
In the third quarter of 2025, the value of outstanding loans in the DeFi sector increased by $14.52 billion USD (54.84%), reaching a value of $40.99 billion USD by the end of the quarter. The total value of crypto-backed loans (DeFi + CeFi) set a new all-time record at $65.37 billion USD.
Disclaimer
This content is intended to enrich readers' information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or any other form of advice intended for specific use. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risk and volatility. The historical performance of an asset does not determine its anticipated future performance. Always conduct your own research and use cash that you can afford to lose before making an investment. All actions related to the buying and selling of Bitcoin and other investments in cryptocurrency assets are the reader's responsibility.
Posted Using INLEO