Will there be an election in May?

Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party has been working really hard to move the opinion polling dial.

Since November 2023, National Insurance has been cut by 4% (at a total cost of £20bn) and businesses were given a big capital allowance in the November budget at a cost of £12bn.

Immigration rules have been dramatically tightened up, with the minimum salary threshold raised to £38,000 for both work and spouse visas..

But nothing is moving the dial and media bandwidth is taken up with trivia; "XYZ said something insulting in 2019!", "ABC has slandered HIJK!", on and on and on, while the public groan and switch off.

The press are determined to pull off a change in govt via a daily deluge of trivial attacks. It's like an army of Liliputians flinging a gazillion darts at Gulliver.

So do the Conservatives benefit from waiting till Oct to call an election? No, by then Gulliver will have sustained so many wounds, it will be fatal.

I therefore believe that if the next inflation figures are good, the Prime Minister will roll the dice and call an early election.