Reform surges to 15% in Yougov poll

YouGov has been persistently showing low scores for Tories and high scores for Reform. This might be to do with sampling issues - instead of a random sample of people, they polll people signed up to their online panel, and by definition, that's not random.

But nevertheless, they're still providing useful information if you look at the change in their polling over time. They've hit a high of 15% for Reform, prompting much panic amongst Tory MPs. Here is a screenshot of the tables:

source

The most interesting thing is London showing Reform at 11%. This is extraordinary.

Recall that in the Wellingborough by-election - territory favourable to Reform as UKIP used to do well there - Reform got 13%.

What would make multi-cultural London suddenly switch to Reform? In my opinion, it's the pro-Palestinian marches that have been taking place every Saturday in London for the last five months, maddening people. To make things worse, Network Rail decided to display an Islamic hadith admonishing "sinners" on the billboard at Kings Cross station yesterday. They never display quotes from the Bible, even though the King, our Head of State, is head of the Church of England, making the UK one of the few officially Christian countries on earth.

There are probably people in London who are in despair at this. And they think that the Tories are too well-mannered and public school to deal with this, while Labour don't think there is anything wrong. So they're turning to Reform.

The next general election is going to be the most febrile in decades.