A breakdown of the UK migration figures

Last week the net migration figures for the year ending June 2023 were released. (Net migration is people entering the UK to stay for at least a year, less people leaving).

It came in at 672,000 and everyone went, How much?

Everyone knew the govt had offered asylum to Ukrainians and HongKongers, and opinion polls at the time said people approved of the decision. But people are now taken aback at the numbers and are very negative about it all.

Here's the breakdown of the numbers over time since 2016:

source

The Ukrainians and HongKongers fall into the non-EU column on the right.

I think what happened is this: the end of the Brexit transition was in December 2020, and the govt assumed that a good proportion of the 7 million EU citizens who applied for settled status would "of course" start returning to the EU as time passed. And therefore it was "safe" to let in the HongKongers and Ukrainians.

But in the year ending June 2022 only 133,000 EU people left, and in the year ending June 2023, 86,000 EU people left. Making a grand total of 219,000 EU people leaving out of 7 million who applied for settled status before Dec 2020.

The govt miscalculated with their generosity to Hong Kong and Ukraine, and now they're paying the price.