Greener Candles Crypto Market Analysis 10/06/25
Good morning, traders!
In yesterday's analysis, I had a small wish: "I'd like to see BTC start trading above the $107k level soon and a move toward $109k from there". Well, it happened sooner than I thought, and we are now trading above $109k with a small pullback going on, but more of that later.
Before going into my analyses & ideas, here are a couple of tweets I picked this morning to share with you guys:
Here's an interesting high time frame analysis where a weekly chart shows BTC market cycle topping when 200W SMA crosses the prior ATH. Link to thread -> https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1932271858902335852/photo/1
Three data points are good enough for me. Setting the alarm. 🚨🧐
On the bullish side, here's James Wynn on macroeconomics, M2 money supply, BTC correlation:
That's bullish, alright. The first comment here is also important.
BTC
The overnight BTC surge saw the price touch $110k before pulling back. The first support level could be near $109; if that is broken, the $107 level is the next one to watch.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, the $107k level falls between the 0.618 and 0.786 in a so-called golden pocket. To further support this idea, we can see the 200MA moving close to that level as well, and hopefully provide support there. If we were to visit this level, a bounce from here could send BTC trading above $110k, turning that into new support and going for the ATH and price discovery zone.
USDT.D & BTC.D
Following the Bitcoin surge, the USDT.D indeed fell off the wedge pattern I had drawn a few days ago and now stands at 4.60%.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Dominance is still trading within a tight range with a couple of deviations.
Most altcoins haven't yet joined the BTC parade, and BTC.D, together with USDT.D, tells us the money is flowing to Bitcoin(and ETH) instead of alts.
ETH
When analysing ETH yesterday, we were at the bottom of the range, and I was still speculating on the possibility of the price going down to fill the fair value gap(black horizontal line). However, along with the Bitcoin surge, ETH jumped to the top of the range, which it's currently testing.
Too early to say whether this is a rejection or just a healthy pullback before giving it a good push. Breaking the trend on the upside would perhaps mean better days for alts as well. Also, it's good to notice that the 200MA has now moved up into the range and will potentially act as support for a bounce that could make ETH jump above the range high.
My Trades: $HYPE
I hope you're not sick of me posting $HYPE analyses so often, but $HYPE is at a very interesting spot right now.
At the time of yesterday's analysis, HYPE was struggling with the $35.6 resistance but cleared it with a long candle, came back to test $36.5(this would have been a good buy level), and even cleared the $38.2 resistance, where I took some profit (red label mark).
After that, $HYPE got rejected from ATH, but is now testing it again and is currently only 2.54% from it. We could perhaps see $HYPE entering the price discovery area even today. If not, $38.2 is the first support to keep an eye out for.
There you have it! Interesting day and the rest of the week ahead of us. Thank you for reading, and don't forget to like, comment and follow! 🟢🙏
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