It's been a wild ride since the $BTC ETP approval. What many thought was going to break us to 100k quickly saw us retreat back below 40k taking a decent sell off multiple times so far. In this article we are going to take a look at key factors that most likely caused this and try to figure out where we could be headed next.

The ETF or ETP

The ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have been talked about for a very long time. I'd say a vast majority of the bull run we had in 2023 was pure speculation of people thinking the ETFs where going to be released. We saw this with constant news and price swings. When they finally came to be prices slumped and many blamed the ETF sell the news which could in fact be a factor here.

What should be noted here however is the SEC really dragged their feet through this. The old commissioners views were we should have approved spot ETFs years ago for crypto and now that the courts had to get involved to tell the SEC they were wrong is even more damaging to the rather tarnished rep the SEC has anymore. Countless people and businesses are simply sick of the SEC and if you want to see corruption honestly look no further than the SEC. I love it when everyone gets mad and upset about corruption in other countries but simply don't understand it happening right under their noses here in the USA. Honestly as a tax payer you should be furious about it and at some point people will get sick enough of it to make a stand. It just always waits for a powder keg instead of dealing with it early like now.

What might have really fueled the sell off was a 4.5 billion in BTC options expiry which happens when older ETFs called Futures ETFs expire. They are pretty much price bets and predictions of what will happen in the future. These expiring contacts pretty much always fuel some type of sell off and this combined with the sell the news was a double hit in a very short amount of time.

What's Next

Next up we have the bitcoin halving of which bitcoin will go from 6.25 $BTC per block down to 3.125 per block. At roughly 144 blocks mined per day that will take the emissions of 900 new BTC being printed per day and drop that drastically once again to just 450 or roughly 18 million bucks worth of it mined per day.

This also shows us just how few BTC there is left to be mined and enter into circulation. Come 2028 - 2029 we will see this halve yet again from a 3.125 to a meager 1.5625 BTC per block or roughly just 225 BTC mined per day. A drastic reduction before we hit the year 2030 which is going to be very interesting to see where we are at that point.

This article is for entertainment purposes only and is no financial advice. Do your own research before investing and understand the risks.

Ethereum

There's a lot of push and hype now that a $ETH ETF/ETP could be approved now here soon. Mainly because these large companies know how to file and press the SEC to get it approved quickly eliminating the back peddling they have been trying to do for so long. If they do it again I'm sure these companies will once again take the SEC to court once again and the SEC will be forced to do their normal job.

The SEC has an extremely bad rep lately in terms of not protecting people and looking out for investors. Instead they attack investors and anything they simply don't agree with no matter what the laws currently state. What was years worth of battling is now finally pushing the SEC to do what they should have done years ago. Fair investing and risk assessment to everyone.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha