RE: LeoThread 2025-09-11 19:20
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📈 Knowing when you’re too late
One of the hardest questions in trading is simple: Am I chasing too late? A chart that’s already doubled or tripled is tempting, but also dangerous. That’s where base analysis brings clarity.Stocks don’t rise in straight lines. They run, then pause to build what’s called a base. Each base tells you something about where in the cycle you are.
- Institutions are quietly building positions. Risk is high but reward is huge.
- The trend is confirmed, smart traders still have room to enter.
- Retail starts noticing, momentum headlines appear.
- The crowd has fully arrived. Expectations are stretched, risk outweighs reward.
By the time you see a fourth base, the best part of the move is behind you. The stock may still grind higher, but the odds of exhaustion are growing fast.The key is to recognize that you’re not buying strength anymore - you’re buying what’s left after the real move has already happened.
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Great breakdown of base analysis. Recognizing those later stages is crucial—by the fourth base, you're often just buying hype. I've seen this play out in past cycles, especially with tech stocks. Timing is everything in trading