Half Time Motivations.
2025 has not been a good year for the business so far. There was a lot of problems with quality and and unnecessarily extended adaption phase to the new place. But now, after a lot of work and harsh words in June, it seems like we're finally back on track again.
After finally finding the balance in my parenting with Lily, and thanks to her progress in adapting as well and becoming more independent (both physically as well as emotionally), I finally did the numbers for the bakery in May. Before, I did not care too much, honestly, as though the bakery was not in good shape, it was still quite profitable and on top I have the "packed" side of the business, with spreads, cookies, nut butters and such, and that was growing substantially.
But I should have. I realized that the profit margin had come down from 29.1% in the first quarter of 2024, to 23.3% in the Q1 2025. That's quite the downfall, and did not include long term investments. So, I checked through everything and alas, there was no growth in income. But in expenses. Not good for a business.
The weekly income had been either below, or in line with 2024. Very seldom it passed it, but not enough to break out. The growth in income was only 1%. It got worse in Q2. We actually had a negative 9% income, declining. Adj. profit margin went down to 22.1%.
There was so much going wrong. No quality control from no sides. All the processes were messed up, the kneading more than anything. The flavors were off. The shapes and sizes varied too much between the baking days (a little is normal, it's mostly hand-made, but it was extreme). It seemed like everyone was working hard, but not smart at all.
So, I came down on the boys like a thunderstorm. They sat in silence afterwards, shocked by all the things they were doing so incredibly wrong without even noticing. Which is the worse part, as it shows lacking interest. But they took responsibility. All of them.
And I made them work harder. A lot harder. I put in the time measuring temperatures, reviewing the processes on paper and researching, writing new guidelines and overall adapting all our processes for the new space, taking advantage of the benefits.
It's warmer here, so we can extend our fermentation time to 20h with very little sourdough, which enhanced the flavor and the aroma while cutting the acidity of the sourdough bread quite a bit down.
They had to put in un-paid time as well, writing down details on the experiments, having extra meetings with me to discuss progress and changes and ideas (and of course, getting slapped when doing stupid things, and getting applauded when having success).
We all chipped in. I bought a lot of new and better equipment, making their work easier in the end (meaning, they'd have less excuses as well). And it turned out well. The quality has risen a lot. Many clients have made comments about it, and we actually have re-gained a few clients. It's not showing in the numbers yet, but it will eventually.
We're still way below 2024. And I can see the downtrend in 2024 quite clearly now. I handed over the torch to the administrator in March 2024, and after a couple of months, the trend is visible. He, too, had to learn through failure.
I don't think my goal of growing 10% is possible anymore. It's 6 months in, and we're down 8% in total. But who knows - maybe the quality will do it's job and sell itself, as it's supposed to.
Luckily, all my workers find pride in their work. They want to give their best, they feel personally bad when the bread does not come out well, or their job is not well done. Most of them, anyway, but the rest is learning. The hard way.
Okay. Here it goes. You plotted income. I am going to assume that is net profit and not revenue. Try plotting revenue.
Also separate CAPEX and OPEX. Plot them separately. See the trend.
Find what is up trending and what is down trending.
Then try to make a waterfall chart of the income statement and cash flow :)
It is revenue, sorry, in German we use "Einkommen" as "Revenue", and "Profit" as "net income" most of the time. Always forget that it's a false friend. Will edit.
I have CAPEX and OPEX seperated in my chart, it's a good idea. I'll have to look up what a waterfall chart is :-D
Thank you for the comment with improvement ideas!
It may not only be the quality of the bread. Have competitors emerged with cheaper prices? Is there a trend among people towards healthier eating (reducing carbohydrates). It would be good to conduct a survey of old customers who have reduced the number of purchases at the bakery.
I did that, and it was mostly the quality. There are cheaper options, but they usually have lower quality and people notice. But as our quality was going down, the price difference wasn't as justified as before. We had a few comments of people coming back to buy from us now. I'm pretty sure that when we're ready and I'll do a post letting people know that we worked on it, together with a request for more feedback (maybe even a survey), it will work like a charm.