Testing XBOT and ArchMage in the era of Rebellion: which is better?
As I sort my account out in the aftermath of the Rebellion release, I find myself revisiting the top bots of the land. My account has been on ArchMage for the past year+, but a generous promotion by the XBOT team for a month free if you are an ArchMage user got me to try them out.
I have recently been investigating which is better (based on fees, results, etc.) and came to the annoying conclusion that it is really hard to tell. All of the metrics that are easily at hand (e.g., % of leaderboard using XBOT vs. AM) have issues.
So, the point of this post is essentially pre-registering an experiment I'm going to do. Writing all this out now will prevent any claims after the fact of choosing the numbers that make one of the services look better than the other.
The experiment
For the next two seasons, I will make 0 changes to my account (no buying or selling or renting of cards that are part of my Wild deck).
The only thing that will change is that the first season I will use XBOT, and the second season I will use AM.
This will give the cleanest comparison of the two services as it will be using the same set of cards and starting at the same place.
One note is that I will need to note the exact length of each season and adjust accordingly (14 days vs. 14.5 days may be a significant difference).
The outcome metrics
One of the important questions is how to measure success. I will show the main one I will use (total rewards), as well as a few secondary ones I am interested in.
Total rewards
I will count 1) the number of chests of each type (the first few days will be Diamond chests) and 2) the total amount of battle SPS won. I won't count the actual contents of the chests, as that is highly RNG-dependent. Instead, each chest will be valued at the median value for chests of that league.
I will then sum up the value of the chests and the SPS to arrive at a total value over the course of the season for the bot. I will subtract the fees the bot charges (15% of battle SPS and focus chest SPS for AM, 5% of the same for XBOT) to arrive at the net rewards the bot provided over a season.
I especially love this metric because it carries a lot of information; because RP go up as you increase rating, this number will be bigger if one bot vs. another gets you to the same point but faster.
Final rating
I will see which bot ends up at a higher rating. This will be somewhat RNG dependent as it is highly effected by the last few matches of the season, and a lucky winning streak could put one on top.
Performance of Rebellion cards
I will calculate 1) the total number of matches at least 1 rebellion card is used and 2) the rate of victories given at least 1 rebellion card is used. I want to see which bot is more likely to use the newer cards and is more effective at doing so.
Any other metrics?
See a metric you'd like to see added? Let me know! I'd love to add things to this list, as these were just the ones off the top of my head.
Shoutouts and referral
Special thanks to the devs of XBOT and AM: for making these bots that have kept me more engaged in the game than I would be without them, for providing a free trial that got me to try XBOT, and for engaging in discussions on effectiveness that inspired this post.
If you're interested in seeing more of this type of analysis or of getting in on the action, use my referral link below and I'll get you started with some cards!
Greetings,
It is a pleasure to read your details article on this adventure you have experienced in Splinterlands game.
Your words are inspiration to me as well as all Splinters.
Happy weekend
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Peace
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What league will you be playing in?
Most of the comparisons have been done for Champ decks and mostly talk about leaderboard positions.
As well as the metrics you're suggesting it would be interesting to see a comparison between soulbound and gladius cards usage too.
Champion! I usually end the season in Champ 2 and spend the first 3-5 days in diamond.
I'll keep an eye in the soulbound cards, although I'm less interested there as the cards I have are RNG instead of hand-picked by me (e.g., I only have level 1 Iziar still).
Gladius cards I'm also not too interested in - I think the 6 mana summoners are overcosted, and the gladius ruleset means the opponent can use it too.
A big part of why I want to follow Rebellion is that part of what I'm interested in seeing is how quickly the bots adapt. The set has been out for 3 or 4 weeks now, plenty of time for the bots to get a handle. So I want to see how good they are at using Rebellion, as a proxy for how good/fast they are at evolving and learning the new meta.
hmm glad you're doing this but no matter what I will probably stay with Archmage. They will start to do better and I think they've kept most of what they said they would do. If not wrong xbot did promise in the beginning they were going to be a one time payment but they have switched to a subscription model copying archmage so if they cant even keep that promise who knows if they increase their % o.o
Yeah that's fair! This is mostly for my own edification and to let anyone use it how they see fit. I hope it's helpful overall, but am not trying to convince anyone to choose one over the other.
alright no worries glad that's the case. I think give it some time cuz archmage still hasnt released their latest update yet if not wrong
Yeah, I've spoken with them and that's why they're second (XBOT is first). If they can't get their system back on line in 4+ weeks since the outage, I think that speaks to their ability to respond to issues in a timely manner anyways and I am okay penalizing them at that point.
That said, it does feel like you've made up your mind as to which is better - good for you! But this post series is more for people who are interested in as unbiased a comparison as I can do and are trying to decide for themselves which service is best for their needs.
ya it's alright haha no worries i get it
What's better for users: Starting with low fees, and slowly increasing them as needed. Or starting with the highest possible fees that you can get away with, and reducing it only when you're forced to by competitors and your community?
Remember that when XBOT started gaining steam, AM was forced to reduce their fees. It's not a stretch to say that they used their first mover advantage, and charged high fees until competitors showed that the cost of automation is actually very low, and their margins are unreasonable. (I think that's still the case today)
I understand why people stick to AM. Brand loyalty is a real thing and people like the developers behind AM.
But you can't argue against the fact that XBOT outperforms AM, charges less fees, and offers much more value to users with QoL features and extra services.
Those are just facts. See here XBOTs results of Season 125.
doesn't change the fact you promised and nah archmage setting a subscription system had nothing to do with xbot coming in. AM already was looking towards the future and the subscription model was the only way to be sustainable. I don't recall AM promising a one off fee. It was only like taht in the beginning cuz they havent implemented the subscription model but if not wrong they already conveyed that there would be fees.
Xbot on the other hand did in a sense promise a one off fee and from what I heard the chat went kinda crazy after the % fees. Anyways clearly there's something not right if xbot has to advertise so hard that they are "the best". there's just something desperate about it and for me that's just a lot of red flags. if it's truly true then the users themselves would be sharing about it not the developer
What you're saying is basically: "I don't like that you broke a promise, so I'm gonna stick to a service that charges me more and gives me less".
We added fees for several reasons. Our service has improved a lot since inception. We added tons of new features and services. Splinterlands has changed their stance on bots and battle helpers which affected us. I'm not perfect, and I admit that the initial promise of no fees was not well thought out. But I believe I have more than made up for that by improving performance, adding extra features and services.
In the last year XBOT released the following features and services, on top of continuously improving the main battle algorithm:
In the last year, Archmage released:
You can interpret my messaging as you like. Maybe the offer was too "desperate". I'm not a PR person. I'm a developer and I write code. I see it as showing confidence that XBOT is the better, cheaper service, and I'm spreading the word to inform people.
If you choose brand loyalty over supporting active developers, and also sacrifice earnings - be my guest. I can't help you if you prefer lip service over actual work and results.
Thanks for sharing! - @mango-juice
