Estimating how much CP is staked in conflicts

One thing I've been really interested in lately is the value of staking cards in Rebellion conflicts for airdrops. The last week solidified some of the final details of the conflict, and this week I can finally start filling in some of the numbers that are dependent on the community's behavior.

Today, I want to look at how many CP are staked in wagons. This number will show how popular conflicts are relative to other uses for the cards like renting.

What did I assume for previous ROI calculation

To be conservative and not artificially inflate any ROI, I assumed 100% of cp would be staked in conflicts. Given the price of GFs, which were inflated because of their CP, I assumed this was a reasonable assumption.

How many CP total are out there

As of today, 27/1, there are 639,705 open packs and 92,760 purchased unopened packs. Each unopened pack is worth 100 cp in wagons. Assuming people use potions when opening packs, each open pack is worth 150 cp. All told, this means there is 105,231,750 CP available for staking in conflicts.

How many CP are staked in conflicts

I've been tracking the total number of airdrop chances for conflicts the past two days (giving the first 48 hours time for everyone to fill their wagons). Those numbers are shown below, along with the line of best fit.

The line of best best shows that airdrop chances are increasing by 1,191 each hour, or 119,100,100. This is 113% of the CP available.

This is an issue

Obviously this isn't right. Either my calculations are wrong, or the circulating packs on splintercards.com is wrong. I've reached out to @tehox to figure out which it is. It's likely I made a mistake, but don't want to rule out other possibilities. Until I figure it out, all I'll say is there are a lot of CP going into conflicts right now.

Referral

Interested in staking some cards for Rebellion rewards? Want to get started in splinterlands? Use my referral code below, and I'll shoot you some cards to get you started.

https://splinterlands.com?ref=badrag