Will the Metaverse make a comeback? | Meta will either sunset or surprise the industry

A lot of people seem to believe that the Metaverse is a doomed concept because a couple tech giants took a desperate shot at it and failed.

This level of short-sightedness tends to get me more optimistic and excited because more often than not, the least expected outcomes end up as the common.

I think a lot of people have a skewed idea and understanding of the “Metaverse complexity” despite the fact that we already have a “base design” to scale up from. I'm talking about multi-player game designs that already have millions hooked.

The single biggest mistake companies building Metaverse projects of any sorts made was diving in greedily like they didn't understand how cheap and judgemental the target audience will be, at least initially.

It was more than just the flaws of mis-representation and understanding of the ideas of alternate realities — thanks to being birthed off blockchain games — but also conflicting branding strategies.

The Metaverse is meant to be an escape from reality and the primary market being every day social media users, there was bound to be pullbacks if platforms were heavy on extraction.

Meta could sunset Horizon Worlds in 2025/26

Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth is giving the metaverse a year to become a hit, according to an internal forum post reported by Business Insider. That time period will determine whether Reality Labs’ mixed reality efforts are “the work of visionaries or a legendary misadventure,” he writes.

Bosworth details his expectations early in the post:

We have the best portfolio of products we’ve ever had in market and are pushing our advantage by launching half a dozen more AI powered wearables. We need to drive sales, retention, and engagement across the board but especially in MR. And Horizon Worlds on mobile absolutely has to break out for our long term plans to have a chance.

This report from The Verge has people calling for Meta to kill the Metaverse project as the article is perceived to reveal that Meta can't figure out the product.

Can we blame them? Not really, especially when we consider that:

Last week, Meta's Reality Labs unit reported a record $1.08 billion in revenue in its fourth-quarter earnings. However, the mixed-reality-focused division also recorded its biggest-ever quarterly operating loss, $4.97 billion. The division has racked up losses of about $60 billion since 2020.

The cited Business Insider report covers the story more broadly. Meta did in fact dive into the Metaverse trend, recklessly and the stakeholders paid for it in the short term. The recent pivot to AI seems to be doing them some good.

That said, there are a couple of things to pay attention to here.

First off, Meta’s Metaverse launch was largely flawed. In an era where “portability and low cost” is the focus of consumers, Meta released a consumer product limited by the need of VR headsets for access.

In addition to the cost of these headsets, consumers are generally still anti-VR, as statistics points out consumers who do not use the tech say they’re simply not interested in giving it a try or discovering it.

With two market flaws pointed out, Meta’s Horizon Worlds was also a literal garbage. Certainly didn't use it, the screenshots and reports revealed it mostly looked like kids playground boxed up as some “revolutionary product” to improve human interactions.

But is all hope lost?

Metaverse = Blockchain + AI

It's been a long-held belief that the Metaverse will be powered by blockchain technology. It's the only thing that makes sense.

The Metaverse requires a flexible economy layer given the scope of an interconnected digital world. That said, decentralized AI will also be a factor in its success.

We are looking at AI powered identities handling roles like tour guides or basically serving as virtual friends for people searching for alternative connections.

Certainly, all of this can be done within centralized systems but it will mostly flourish and maintain ethicality through a decentralized system.

Meta seems to have plans with a Mobile release. If you notice, the excerpt above reads “Horizon Worlds on mobile absolutely has to break out for our long term plans to have a chance.”

What are the long term plans? Advertising? Probably a part of it, ultimately but time will tell in entirety. What I do know is that the Metaverse isn't a doomed concept, we hit hiccups because tech giants went greedy on the hype and failed to do a proper market study.

Posted Using INLEO