Is Michael Saylor’s $21M Bitcoin price forecast improbable?

A lot of people have their eyes on what Michael the Saylor says and does, his recent price forecast:

“$21 million in 21 years.” on X gainer over 1.6M views and the report covering this on Cointelegraph alone attracted over 20,000 reads.

Any perpetual Cointelegraph reader knows that this is essentially a “hot story” on the platform’s daily feed.

I just quickly went to fact check myself as I type this and it turns out that it's currently the top story in the “Hot stories” section of Cointelegraph’s spotlight news block.

Bitcoin bull and Strategy founder Michael Saylor has doubled down on the long-term value of BTC amid fast-changing geopolitical and cryptocurrency adoption trends.

Saylor took the stage with a keynote speech at the BTC Prague 2025 event on Saturday, predicting that the price of Bitcoin would hit $21 million in 21 years.

“I think we’re going to be $21 million in 21 years. It's a very special time in the network. Maybe the one time in the history of the network where you look out 21 years and you see $21 million,” Saylor stated.

Saylor’s latest bullish Bitcoin prediction is a massive increase from his previous forecast made at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville last year, when he predicted that Bitcoin would hit $13 million by 2045. — Cointelegraph report

Now many are thinking about this and wondering if he's just mad or this is something that can actually happen.

In case anyone was wondering, Bitcoin at $21 million would bring the asset's fully diluted valuation (FDV) to $441,000,000,000,000 or $441 trillion.

That's almost about as large as the bottom estimated notional value of the global derivatives market and at the same time almost as large as the leading estimated value of global wealth.

We are really looking at figures that would be crazy for a single asset to have as a market capitalization.

Now, I began this article by saying that most people are fixated on what Saylor has to say, and for a good reason but he isn't the first to make such crazy predictions. Most have predicted the $10 million price point over the years before Michael Saylor could learn what a UTXO is (if he even truly knows, not sure) and more recently, reportedly, an early Bitcoin adopter had make a prediction half of Saylor’s for a time period of 1-2 decades from today.

And you want to know what's funny? He called this predicted price run the “SaylorCycle.”

We should no longer see 80-90% drawdowns and the Bitcoin market structure should move like the rest of the global markets as there is a strong bid for bitcoin from institutional & sovereign buyers.

In this 10 year SaylorCycle, we should expect to see "bear market" declines as low as 50% and "bull market" rises as high as 200% year over year.

I believe the days of parabolic bitcoin advances and brutal 90% drops are done, and Bitcoin will advance to levels as high as $10 million per coin over the next decade or 2, giving parabolic-like returns.

I believe there is one last 100X in Bitcoin, but it will happen over 10-20 years instead of 1-2. Brad’s published analysis on TradingView

Have they both gone mad making this all improbable?

I wouldn't say that. I'd just say that both parties have an interest for Bitcoin to be at such price levels. As I write this, Michael Saylor has hinted at another Strategy Bitcoin purchase while Real estate mogul Grant Cardone announced Cardone Capital’s 1,000 BTC purchase with plans to add an additional 3,000 coins this year.

If I was Saylor, I would probably bull post and talk a lot about the positives at every given chance on the asset I'm acquiring debts in billions of dollars to purchase. How else do you get to drive FOMO into the hearts of individuals and firms watching by the sidelines?

It generally doesn't matter if Saylor’s predictions are improbable, $100,000 was once improbable and that's a 100,000x right there, how hard can it be to get an additional 200x?

Today, $441 trillion seems like a lot until we're a couple decades in and realize that global economies have vastly expanded. Energy use is on whole new levels, productivity is up by a lot and national debts, as to be expected, have more than doubled. What do you think would be the state of assets markets at a time like this?

Brad mills bases his prediction on the rise of cheap peer-to-peer payments on Bitcoin, eliminating merchant fees and subsequent growth in retail savers in sats as a potential driver of BTC’s price by at least another 100x, yet at the end of the day, there's frankly multiple things that could happen over the next decade.

No one can truly know, we can only look at the past and be sure that the future will be no different in terms of increasing fiat debt leading to the chase of alternative assets to hedge against the devaluation.

Posted Using INLEO