Market Sentiments
It has been a while since I wrote a crypto related blog on here, which is weird cause hive is built on blockchain and crypto, but I decided I might as well write one today. With the state of the general markets, it is fun to look away from our portfolios and talk about other things, so that's not what I'll be doing lol.
Twitter is one of the more active places where web3 communities reside, and I have been fairly active there since I finished my exams. After Trump announced the tariffs, all the financial markets took a big hit, majorly the stock market, but crypto also felt the hit. Yesterday, while many were panic selling and calling the start of the bear market as the markets were falling, all I could do was watch. It made me laugh and realize that no one actually knows the market completely. Many will bring thesis and analysis and draw charts and lines, but those are just predictions. When they come off, they're good, and when they don't, they'll be another explanation for why they didn't come off, perhaps a miscalculation. They'll always be a missing variable, but no one really knows for sure in what direction the market will move. And in a way, it brought relief to me.
While everyone was panic selling, some were buying. I was watching calmly. The reason being I had nothing to sell. Luckily for me, I converted the portion of my assets I may need to stables a while ago. All that's left are my conviction bags (hive, for example). I wonder what I'd be doing if I wasn't stabled up (probably panicking).
Currently, the general market is ranging, not really going in any direction. We have found relief somewhere around BTC at 80k. Some investors have called it a great time to accumulate, while some say there's further downside ahead. For some reason, I am leaning towards the second school of thought. The Tariff wars have just begun, and I believe there are still some more dips incoming as a result of that, and maybe then I will consider bidding the coins that have strong fundamentals.
As for a bear market, I don't necessarily think we are at the start of one. Especially since no one has been able to conclude if we even had a bull market or not. I mean, sure, BTC was above 100k, but other than that, most coins didn't really perform. Unless you want to call the memecoin supercycle that happened on pumpfun a bull market.
I doubt I'd get more than one or two comments, but if you read this, I wonder what you think about everything that's happening so far. Are we going even lower? Did the bull market happen? Or has the concept of bull market and bear market ended? Interested in your opinion.
THANKS FOR READING
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Markets over long periods of time paint a picture but over short periods of time the market is just noise.
When something happens in the market the first thing I say is, "does this make sense?"
Tarrifs are by definition short term in nature, where as assets are valued based on some terminal value that is discounted to present value.
So the US stock market in the short term may whipsaw but in the long-term will probably keep going up.
Bitcoin will always react in extreme ways to any type of news due to low liquidity relative to the amount of capital available.
It's worth noting Bitcoin going down in reaction to Tarrifs makes no sense because Bitcoin is not impacted by Tarrifs and the amount of capital available to buy bitcoin will continue to go up.
Unless something fundamentally changes in the world we live in, countrys will continue to debase their currencies pumping more money into the system driving asset prices up.
Is this the bottom? Idk, but the market is fearfull so that's a signal that maybe it is.
I am a contrarian investor, if people are extremely fearful and selling, that's when I am buying.
So until further notice, I am buying.
Nice to see you getting back to the blog, I need to do the same! 😊
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