RE: Our little farm(er's market)
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Correct.
There is a function in excel that can calculates all those with one click from your frequency distribution.
Here in this data Median is perhaps most significant which is $37. Most people's revenue is that.
But some crazy guy like me, may be interested in the tail of that log normal distribution and look for that single high number and research why that sale was that high and how to replicate that.
A lot of my academic research and current job investigates tails of these right skew log normal distribution.
Wealth distribution, Human intelligence, Spreading rate of virus, Size of oil fields...............they are all right skewed log normal distributions. The issue is how do you predict this exact distribution just from a severely under sample data. How do you predict an event, that is catastrophic, that hides in the long tail?
We call it the black swan.
AND YOU TELL ME THAT NOW??????? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
So... The founder and I are Black Swans? That's so cool. She's going to love that. And it does make sense, both our incomes combined are 25% of the total revenue of the market, while being only 2% of the market.
So when you work on gas and oil, do you work in the same way, just with samples? Getting as many samples as possible, plotting them, and calculating the probability of each sample bin width being the most representative?
Yes and yes :)
Natural world is log normal. All you are trying to do is to find the mean, median and standard deviation!
That’s the first task.
Then you predict a single outcome.
If you can do that, you can have my job :)
Jetting around the world and getting paid well for that? Doesn't sound too bad... I think you mentioned team management as well, I do have experience in that. What I don't think is that it would line up with my character, and what I want to achieve in my life 🙃
Thank you so much for tutoring me through this, more or less! It was indeed very interesting, and I feel like I understand those values a lot better now.
It does seem like I'm going back to school these days. Math reminds me of storytelling sometimes. Not only in the statistics we just went through, but generally. The other day, I wanted to calculate how much bread we'd have to sell to make it worth a trip to Puerto Lopez, including fix cost, wished profit, ingredients cost and the cut that the baker made from the income. In the end, I did it on paper, as I needed to write down the story in numbers: