The Fall of Iran's Islamist Regime
Iran is being soundly defeated in every arena and is barely laying any blows on its enemies.
- Hamas: Almost completely defeated and on the wrong end of a 50:1 casualty ratio (world record is 68:1 US vs Iraq in 2nd Gulf War)
- Hizbollah: Lost almost 200 terrorist fighters to 9 IDF losses. Large attrition of infrastructure and senior commanders.
- Houthis: Lost 75 fighters and substantial infrastructure and ammunition to US & UK attacks. Failed to kill a single Israeli or damage any Israeli property. Pushed up shipping prices for everyone but not harmed Israel specifically (indeed Israel may benefit by reducing Chinese competition for its exports to Europe). Damage to the few ships hit is quite minor.
- Syrian & Iraqi militias: Being hit hard by US and Israeli strikes. Zero Israeli casualties from this front. A few Yanks with headaches.
- IRCG: Iran has lost numerous senior commanders in Israeli and US attacks in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Large losses from ISIS terror bombing of pilgrimage to IRCG arch-terrorist's tomb. Frequent and increasingly bold attacks on IRCG & regime targets all over Iran.
- Other: Iran foolishly murdered some civilians with inaccurate ballistic missiles in Iraqi Kurdistan and Pakistan out of frustration for not being able to hit Israeli targets. Pakistan hit back much harder against Iran directly and Iran backed down.
Chess Analogies
Many people like to use chess analogies when discussing Iran's strategy (because Persia and India are the birthplaces of chess).
Iran is not just losing pawns. It is losing bishops, knights and soon a rook (Hizbollah) and has failed to take a single opposing piece. It is being wiped out on the chessboard and the Houthi attacks on world shipping is like Israel getting a second queen as the US & UK attack the Houthis instead of Israel.
Iran and its proxies are under serious attack everywhere and no one is coming to Iran's aid.
China and Russia have commercial interests in Iran, but are doing nothing to upgrade Iran's decrepit conventional military forces (tanks and planes over 40 years old). Actually a change of regime to one that focussed on doing business rather than hopelessly failing in trying to take over the Middle East would suit Russia and China.
Iran's strategy was to build up proxy forces in weak states and conduct low level asymmetric warfare against Israel and the US.
October 7 has upended this strategy as Israel is engaging in full scale warfare, seeking total victory. Neither Iran nor its proxies have anything to counter this.
Tom Nash does some good analysis, although he sees things too much through the lens of the US controlling things, whereas Israel is mostly setting the agenda.
https://twitter.com/iamtomnash/status/1747870158750720187/photo/1
End Game
The end game is becoming clearer and is likely the overthrow of the Islamist Iranian regime during the upcoming Trump 2nd Presidency.
Only 50% of Iranians are from the ruling Persian majority. Half the country are minorities that hate the regime.
Of the 50% Persians, the majority also dislike the regime.
The Regime has been ripe for overthrow for years, but Obama and Biden have propped up the regime and refused to assist the opposition and Israel had limited itself to attacks on nuclear related targets.
Now the gloves are off as Iran is exposed as behind the barbaric Oct 7 attacks and Houthi attacks on global trade.
This ongoing debacle of continuous defeats of Iran is weakening the regime.
It is also getting closer and closer to direct strikes on regime targets.
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Trump says Iran is 60 days away of a nuclear weapon
This sounds scary, until we realize that we've been hearing that "Iran is X days/weeks/months" from getting a nuclear weapon for the last 20 to 25 years. I remember seeing articles based on this theme since George W. Bush (or even Bill Clinton) was President of the United States. I've come to the conclusion that this is one of those themes meant to scare the public rather than to actually present the situation as-is. It's like comedian Jack Benny telling people he's been 39 years old for the last 25 years.
To reinforce this point, few if any people had heard a peep about the North Korean nuclear weapons program until the first bomb was tested.
I'm not saying that Iran is not working on acquiring nuclear weapons either by purchase or by do-it-yourself methods, but with the intellectual and scientific talent Iran has compared to North Korea-- not to mention the access to world-class scientists in the field-- Iran couldn't figure out how to get it done yet a nation isolated from the rest of the world could?
I don't have the answers, but I can't accept the answers I've been given over the years, either.
After the fired 331missles and downs on Israel nothing matters. Iran regime should be eliminated.
I understand the feeling and the sentiment. My concern is getting manipulated into being made to feel this way ; it's what all governments-- without exception, in all locations, at all times-- do to their own people to make sure we don't pay attention to their own misdeeds. They deserve all the distrust and suspicion we give them.
You may already know this, but it's worth reminding people about it:
We're in 2024 right now. This means that Iran as we know it today has been around for almost 45 years. That means that most of the population in today's Iran is younger than 45. Many of those people aren't satisfied with how things are in their nation.
While today's Iran is the only Iran they know, many people born after 1979 also know that Iran doesn't have to be the way it is from a slice of life perspective. This was shown in the gasoline riots from a few years ago, when many of the rioters were waving USA flags. How many of those rioters were genuine in wanting closer relations to the United States? I don't know, but the number is greater than 0. On the flip side, many of the "Death to America" protests usually take place at the barrel of a gun, so how many of those are genuine as well?
Will Iran change to become another nation, or at least a nation with a new form of government? It's more likely now than ever, and we'll see what happens over the next decade.
Yes, Israel has the opportunity now to launch a broad attack on regime targets, particularly IRCG bases and let the Iranian people overthrow their tyrants.