Will The SPS/DEC Flywheel Be Sustainable?

One of the most consistent things we have seen in the Splinterlands ecosystem in the almost 2 years I’ve been here are pump and dumps. Unfortunately the pumps haven’t been as massive as we would all have liked, but the pattern remains nonetheless.

Every time there is a major release or update we’ve seen DEC push closer to reach peg or SPS have a minor run. Go back to Riftwatchers and the Holiday promo last year, the introduction of Soul Bound rewards in January, Land 1.0 in April, and The Great Burning event last month - they all followed very similar patterns for the asset and token values.

As we look forward, we now know that all SPS utility is tied to DEC through the flywheel mechanic (burning SPS for DEC). One concern I have is when we hit the ever elusive flywheel, it won’t be consistent or sustain long term. Crypto follows a pump and dump and Splinterlands is very much a crypto based game.

Looking ahead, we have some major catalysts that will hopefully push DEC above peg and start the flywheel but once the hype from those events die down I do believe we’ll see DEC fall below peg - although my hope is we don’t see it fall as much. If we can stay above $0.0009 that would be awesome.

The major catalysts I’m seeing would be Land 1.5, the mini promo set, Rebellion, and Land 2.0 over the next 6-12 months. There may be some smaller releases like new guild buildings or game modes that add in but we don’t have any context for those right now.

Until and unless we see major ongoing demand for DEC that keeps players from selling their SPS and makes them actually burn it for DEC I think the flywheel will be awesome but intermittent. This obviously changes if we bring in a whole new wave of players but the good news is we don’t necessarily have to as long as the team continues delivering awesome new features that the current player base wants to participate in. The flywheel can take off without a major bull run - and to me that’s very bullish.

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