The horseshoe behind my door, or calculating the trend of a probability.

I hate that object behind my door, I've tried to ignore it and imagine it's just a mirage that repeats itself every morning when I leave the house, but no, it's really there.
Sometimes I also remember it when they slam it shut and it echoes off the wood with an unpleasant cran...cran...cran...an onomatopoeically indefinable and irritating sound, mostly because it mistreats my door and strengthens my disbelief.

I attribute it to the fact that I grew up influenced by a strong dialectical materialistic tendency against a small and sinuous religious spirituality displayed in lousy educational terms. I'm not going to blame anyone for that, am I?
But until yesterday I hadn't thought much about it, it's really there because someone in my family has clung to it, that unidentifiable attachment that for me is just a dark hole full of fears and insecurities backed up by the worn out footwear of an elegant animal.

Well, nothing, I left as I do every morning cursing the winding cran...cran...cran behind my door, rushed by the time and checking the last items stored in my bag so as not to have to go back as often happens in my natural morning absent-mindedness, a morning like any other in all its best expression.

Arriving at the same corner, between two buildings, separated by a double sidewalk, I stopped to let a young lady and what looked like her mother pass by, each with a baby boy, barely a year old, or a little older? the lady made the gesture of putting the child on the ground while fighting for something, and the young woman visibly upset told her that she would carry both of them, and in a short space of time I was in the middle of an ugly and unpleasant argument over the child, while I feared that during the struggle they would drop him on the ground.
The road was literally blocked in the middle of all that chaos, and without intending to interrupt the mess full of dangers -or quite the contrary-, I only managed to exclaim:

-SORRY, I NEED TO GET THROUGH!

It sounded loud enough to make the mothers react, and realize the size of their stupidity against the safety of their children, and I slipped away almost satisfied with the effect of my voice as I felt them shut up and continue on their way with the babies.

No discussion is worth contaminating the beauty and peace of a child.

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Further along, and more quietly, almost reaching a four way intersecting road, I came upon an incredible sight, two large Creole dogs (one white, one black) were running and playing along the road, crossing and jumping into large puddles of water chasing each other and going into the weeds at the edge of the sidewalk scaring off the ground swallows.

What a spectacle! I was only worried about the cars, and I crossed and crossed my fingers that nothing would happen to them, while I prayed that my fears would not contaminate the moment of happiness of two angels on earth, and so it was, they were slowly moving away between jumps and somersaults on their way into the pasture.

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After reacting I continued on my way, and as I live and work in a suburban area my path sometimes, or many times, is interrupted by potholes, broken curbs, puddles, and destroyed or stolen sidewalks because they took the cement when they were made, a crazy things, but it is the most natural of landscapes when you get used to it, and even beautiful!
But what had never happened to me before was that they would try to run me over by driving over a sidewalk, or what was left of it!
I was in shock, half a meter away from me a medium size white van crossed my path trying to avoid falling into the crater of the Popocatepetl volcano (a pothole), and everything happened so fast that I don't know whether to thank the Almighty or just the man who gave the driver's license to the driver of the van, I survived, I only know that.

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Did I go through three events that shocked me in one road and in the same morning? Yes.
You may think I'm crazy, but after I finally managed to get to work (late), sit down at my desk, turn on the computer and organize my papers, the horse shoe behind my door came to mind.
Ah gee the horseshoe, and what does the horseshoe have to do with all these isolated events? Did one have anything to do with the other? Nothing to do with it.
If I start analyzing the probability of an event interrelated with others, that will lead me to the calculation of conditional probability, a key tool of probability theory including its risks of course, right?
I can even recreate a theory of probability counting techniques and statistics about it, taking into account the frequency together with a random experiment under certain stable conditions, of course, without ignoring the degree of uncertainty under which they occur. Do you understand?

In short, the probabilities of an event occurring are measured by a number between zero and one, so if the event does not occur its probability will be zero, but if it does occur then its value is one.

And if you do not understand it does not matter, it is normal, we have the right not to understand it, that is why people prefer to trust more in a horseshoe than in the probabilities of a statistically proven fact, because in the end it sounds complicated and stormy, and the horseshoe is only a powerful object (so they believe) where they place their trust to ward off evil spirits and the high probability that something certainly bad can happen to you.

That's why, and after all, the horseshoe on my door sooner or later will go away.

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Thank you so much for reading my blog!

• Photos taken with my Redmi 9C
• Banner and dividers made with Canva.
• Translator: Deepl.com (free version)
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