What Happens With BTC if We don't Get and Altcoin Season This Cycle?

Mixed feelings all across the board in crypto. Some influencers are calling the bottom for this correction, saying it's already in since BTC’s latest ATH at $108,000, while others claim $108,000 was actually the top. I guess we’ll only know who’s right a couple of months from now.

Now, I don’t do TA. I’m too dumb for that. I do have some basic TA knowledge—I can recognize some chart patterns—but if someone asked me right now what direction the market is headed, I couldn’t give a straight answer.

I played around in Paint with Bitcoin’s all-time chart, and just by drawing a simple straight line tangential to the past two cycle tops, it looks like we haven’t yet hit this cycle’s potential ceiling…

Based on my sketch, if BTC rebounds quickly, we should see the price hitting "my ceiling" at around $120,000+. That could happen in a relatively short time, but then again... think of BlackRock for a second.

This thing uses AI—Aladdin is the name of their AI monster brain that helps them with investing—and AI is not dumb. You really think they’d let BTC drop straight into a bear market just one year after their spot ETF got approved? They need FOMO just as much as we do to make money.

I was also thinking about something else today regarding crypto and its cycles… What the hell happened to altcoin season? We haven’t had a proper one yet. BTC has been bullish since the $15,800 level, but many alts have barely managed a 2X this cycle. And historically, it’s always been altcoins that brought retail into the market.

The mania phases of 2017 and 2021? Those were the result of the masses piling into crypto. We haven’t seen that yet this cycle. Yeah, plenty of meme coins launched, but most of them are already dead, and the majority were rugs that crashed soon after launching.

Long story short, we still haven’t had an altcoin season this time around. There’s talk about several altcoin ETFs (besides ETH) potentially getting approved this year, but without market mania, who’s gonna buy them? The BTC ETFs got approved right before the halving because they knew hype would build up at that time.

We haven’t seen any euphoria in this cycle so far. And as I mentioned in a previous post, if this bull market is actually over, then it would be the first one to end in fear and pessimism. Maxis might love the idea of altcoins dying, but if the masses lose interest in crypto, they’ll lose interest in BTC too.

Interest in crypto gave Bitcoin value. Same goes for anything, fiat money included. If people didn’t accept it or see value in it, it wouldn’t be worth shit, right?

The recent bleed-out has been nasty, but it reminds me of early 2021 when most of us thought $40,000 was the top… right before BTC rallied to $64,000 in May 2021.

I’m not out of the market yet. I’ll decide what to do with my portfolio around May or June this year.

What about you?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian