The Green Path

It's been six years since I embarked on my crypto journey. Initially, I was somewhat hesitant about diving into this world, which resulted in several months passing between my introduction to digital assets and my first purchase (Litecoin was my debut coin). Since then, I've always had skin in the game.

Then came Hive in early February, a development that deepened my love for crypto and its purpose. The current bull market marks my third rodeo in this arena, and I'm hoping it's the charmed one. Why do I say that? Well, because I joined the crypto party in late 2017, just before it took off. Little did I know then that I was actually right on time.

But, alas, I found myself holding underwater bags throughout the 2018-2019 bear market. When the bulls started their run again in 2020-2021, I fell for the supercycle theory, once more missing out on substantial profits. I guess it's fair to call me a moron in this regard.

However, with every cycle that slipped through my fingers, I believe I've picked up some valuable lessons. Now, I truly feel prepared to make some life-changing money. If history repeats itself, I'm positioned quite well for what's coming. I won't become a millionaire, that's for sure, but I have a chance to significantly improve my financial standing.

Does the market have to replay past patterns? Well, it's a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the halving will, as usual, trigger a wild bull run, culminating in a parabolic surge, followed by the inevitable crash into a new bear market. But on the other hand, it doesn't have to play out exactly like 2019 or 2016.

Each cycle sees a different set of participants. The first two bull markets were driven by retail investors, while the 2021 bull market, in my opinion, was led by institutional money. Now, we're on the cusp of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval, which could be monumental for its price but not necessarily for its core principles.

Consider the case of gold. After the approval of its spot ETF, the price of gold went parabolic. You might wonder, hasn't Bitcoin already had its parabolic runs? Well, yes, given its level of acceptance as an investment asset in these times. However, as financial institutions like BlackRock begin to view it as a form of digital gold, you realize there are trillions more to be added to its market cap in the next couple of years.

Many are still underestimating the BlackRock and Bitcoin connection. I'm not a fan of BlackRock, a company that's essentially swallowing up substantial chunks of real estate, media outlets, and now seems poised to do the same with Bitcoin. Monopolization of an asset or commodity by a massive entity isn't something I'm fond of witnessing.

In my opinion, we're currently in the disbelief phase of the crypto market. The sentiment reflects that. Some believe that due to external factors, we won't witness another bull market. A similar sentiment arose during the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. Yet, if you look at Bitcoin's chart, you'll see that a few months after the pandemic hit, Bitcoin embarked on another parabolic run.

Markets dance to a different tune than the economy. They are driven by factors beyond the data that economists share with us. I understand that it's tough to be bullish when the market seems stagnant. Nevertheless, being bullish when blood is on the streets, and having skin in the game when everyone else is euphoric, is far more fruitful than turning bullish when confirmation is glaringly evident (everyone and their mother being in crypto).

The most significant lesson I've learned from these six seemingly unproductive years in crypto is to be a contrarian. Build your portfolio when the crowd waits for lower levels (you don't need to pinpoint the bottom), and start selling when things get outrageous. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) reigns supreme in this regard because predicting the bottom or the top is near impossible.

If you believe that following some Twitter or YouTube guru will help you navigate the bull market, you'll likely end up like I did in 2021—missing opportunities. The truth is, nobody knows it all. And even if they do possess some knowledge, these so-called analysts will often cater to the masses' desires (inflated numbers) in pursuit of followers and adulation.

Crafting your own strategy, documenting it, and sticking to it is paramount. So, will this bull market be a green one for me? Well, that's precisely what I intend to make it. How about you?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian